Yeah those revenue rankings mean absolutely nothing. Nebraska was ranked in the top 10 the year before on that chart and if the big ten could they would punt that team into the sun.
Big 12 Expansion (new thread)
- Thread starter Gilbyone
- Start date
Nebraska has been on the decline since 2000, but their team still pulls a lot of money and a lot of fans. Still enough older people out there looking backwards. Have radio stations basically dedicated to big red football year around. It’s a weird thing.
I like the irrational Nebraska hate, but I don’t think that’s correct. Which is good for MSU, as if they’re punting Nebraska they’re punting Michigan St too.
Yep lets punt the team with 6 eleven win football seasons in the past decade (behind only Bama, OSU, Clemson, and OK) a top ten finish this year, the 17th ranked recruiting class and multiple billionaire owners. The Basketball team is pretty good too...
Owners, they have people taking taking profits over there?
You are looking at this wrong. Nebraska is great to have in the conference. They still bring name value and interest while being easy to beat. That’s why I wish Texas would give Sark a lifetime contract and stay in the big 12.
God I wish. Miss playing against Wisconsin, had a real good rivalry going for a few years that got cancelled.
Realignment is not about on field results, you know this.
If it were, the Pac12 is not a conference, let alone perceived as a threat to take Big 12 teams.
What exactly is your P2 that you keep referencing? And if it somehow involves demotion/relegation of existing P5 programs out of your so called P2 before 2032, that isn't happening.
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Consolidation of top brands into a top tier of BIG and SEC. Could be formal, but more likely at first informal by making at least twice the other conference(s). A big deal in any era, even more if pay to play occurs
It’s kind of odd to think it can happen 2032 but not before if you think GOR is an issue
It’s all about how quickly the value of being in a conference with no future causes schools in the ACC to seek a landing spot. Not to mention making half their regional peers (see Clemson and FSU).
You think that occurs in 2032. I think much sooner as schools like UNC and UVa lose leverage to dictate the breakup as the expiration nears. If UNC wants duke in, they can’t wait. If FSU wants in over Miami they will be the SECs wedge.
The GOR isn’t prohibitive because espn is locked into paying the collection of 40 in the three conferences regardless. If rearranging makes more money, they benefit GOR or not. And without the GOR being an issue , it’s much easier to get enough on board to cause the fear needed to get dissolution.
7 to the SEC imo. ESPN won’t have an issue keeping Pitt, Louisville, one of the FL schools, and GT whole to the ACC deal of 2016 vintage in the Big 12 East. Maybe KU makes it to a P2, maybe not. A couple Pac12 will eventually be available too unless the Pac12 is content being a leftover conference with the Big 12
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agree with all of this. The money difference is going to force some hands sooner than 2032.
Takes a super majority (11 schools) of the ACC to dissolve and that would need to happen without demotion/relegation of existing members. Not gonna happen prior to 2032 if that.
B10 wants P12 to survive for the foreseeable future to preserve Rose Bowl tradition. Fox does as well so they get Rose Bowl rights as part of CFP.
Nobody wants blood on their hands for any demotion/relegation of multiple, existing P5 schools out of a clear path to top tier national title whether it be a future P5, P4 or even an ESPN vs Fox P2. Primary reason why the B10/P12/ACC Alliance was created to stop the ESPN/SEC nonsense that you evidently are buying into.
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I think your timeframe might be off in that it takes more years then you think but the informal part is spot on. The major problem is that with the new BIG/SEC deals coming does that change who could be added that wouldn't reduce the payouts for other schools? If we are talking 80mil per school what other schools outside of those two conferences could bring that in? Also one of the other things that I know you don't believe but I will keep saying is that the BIG will do everything possible to not expand and keep things the way they are. Will it work? Not sure but they will try.
I think the days of baking in escalators in a deal are over.
But getting to a P2 48 will be about the networks passing on the better macros. Including redoing the basketball postseason revenue distribution. The third conference won’t have the pull and will be along for the ride- invited, but not much say. Like the AAC now.
Counter intuitive but I think it’s even better the BIG-Pac12 fight it. Besides consolidation resulting in better margins, the P2 setup is about better drama. Better product identification and tapping into the north-south polarization. We like to hate.
A cold war split will lead to massive ratings when they rejoin and match up in postseason. It will return a lot of value to bowl season from a ratings perspective.
I do think it’s possible at first the BIG-Pac12 side has unequal revenue sharing. The BIG could get the Pac9 to $50-$60 million without costing the BIG anything more than the opportunity cost of not getting 3 or4 ACC. I think they would do that over letting the Pac12 fall to the status of the other conference. And the BIG presidents will give up some opportunity cost to get Stanford, Berkeley, UW, and UCLA as Big 10/BTAA/CIC brands.
The P2 at 48 but formally a P3 of maybe 64. It could have been 1-2 less if espn didn’t botch the OUT move.
But what happens to P3 after years of making 50% and potentially not having an auto bid? A slow death to a more formal separation?
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Excerpt from the Athletic which gives credence to the ACC's desire to re-open their TV deal with ESPN and keep the conference intact beyond 2036:
"ACC commissioner Jim Phillips is still waging a seemingly one-man fight to limit CFP expansion to eight teams, which publicly he says is an athlete-welfare issue but privately is an attempt to force Notre Dame’s hand to join his conference in full."
"ACC commissioner Jim Phillips is still waging a seemingly one-man fight to limit CFP expansion to eight teams, which publicly he says is an athlete-welfare issue but privately is an attempt to force Notre Dame’s hand to join his conference in full."
You might want to run your Google maps on that one again. Mine says Manhattan to Ames is 4 hr 58 min & Manhattan to Memphis is 8hr 40 min.
