Pac-12 to decide whether to expand within a couple weeks

[AppleCornCy]

The ACC invited Boston College which is a religious institution. How much of an issue would it be for the PAC 12 to invite TCU or Baylor?

One thing that doesn’t get mentioned with TCU and Baylor is that they aren’t R1 Research schools. Every single Power 5 school is an R1 other than Baylor, TCU, and Wake Forest. Those schools are R2.

I’m not sure if it’s accurate, but the K-State 247 mod says that while the Big Ten requires expansion candidates to be AAU schools, the Pac-12 only requires them to be R1. If true, that would mean TCU and Baylor are out.

List of research universities in the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Clone83]

Thanks for the reference. I used risk based modeling in my day job specifically focused on economic outcomes. My PhD is in statistics from Iowa State and I build ML algorithms to predict likelihoods of events.

You're welcome. It is easy to see that Knight has a distinguished background. His book, based on his dissertation at Cornell, alone likely would have won him the Nobel, but awards were not given in that subject until something like 1969. I believe Ludwig von Mises' theory of entrepreneurship is basically the same as Knight's. My understanding is that he based his theory on probability concepts developed by his younger brother Richard, however, who was a professor of aerospace engineering at Harvard:

Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, in 4 vols., ed. Bettina Bien Greaves (Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 2007). Vol. 1.

Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, vol. 1 (LF ed.) | Online Library of Liberty

In the foreword to Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, Mises explains complex market phenomena as “the outcomes of countless conscious, purposive actions, choices, and preferences of individuals, each of whom was trying as best as he or she could under the circumstances to attain various...

oll.libertyfund.org

The first 200 pages of Human Action is pretty philosophical and not easy to understand, and there are major differences between the Austrians and others on methodology, so if you wanted to read that you might start at something like page 201:
Human Action | Mises Institute

A shorter work of his having to do with entrepreneurship is Profit and Loss (1951), written not long after Human Action (1949):
Profit and Loss | Mises Institute

I'll add this piece by Rene Magritte, the famous Belgian surrealist, that I consider relevant. He painted hundreds of pipes, I believe. The words at the bottom are "This is not a pipe."



Consider that in relation to Knight's concepts of risk versus uncertainty, and mathematical models more generally. The first part of his book is basically perfect competition, formalized.

Hayek taught from Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, I read somewhere, as a textbook at the London School of Economics. It influenced him, I believe, in these writings:

Hayek, Economics and Knowledge (1936) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

“The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

 

[ImperialCyclone]

Did someone just get their hand slapped?

@ImperialCyclone, how would you construct or rate ML algorithms for ISU this year?

Win/Loss totals? If so, the FPI produced by ESPN is historically accurate.

Best method is to take year over year results combined with strength of schedule of opponents, recruiting ratings, returning production on offense/defense and quantity some form of “development/luck” indicator. Models will also need to take into account what opponents are returning in terms of production. Any model will need to factor in home vs away and quantify that advantage along with some form of date component (seasonality). The final step is to run bootstrapped monte carlo simulations on outcomes of each game with a win probability for each outcome (I would use logistic regression in this case). Each game would the have a final win probability associated with it. This is how Las Vegas builds both lines and win total over/unders. You just rinse and repeat for win totals and game by game probabilities. The key is the simulation component. I can write a program that would simulate a “game” millions of times. I can change factor with each outcome based on actual players in the game. Is it right all the time? No, but it’s more right than wrong if built correctly. Most “live betting” you see are based on the conditions of these simulations.

*edited to add in pieces I forgot to add

 

[isucy86]

I will be curious what the Alliance entails. Because anything the Big10 and ACC do to raise the Pac12's national visibility hurts their schools. Sure playing high profile games in September will attract eyes and grow revenue. But if USC, Oregon, Washington, etc. can beat the upper tier Big10 or ACC teams- it improves their chances of getting 1 or more playoff bids.

I think a mistake most people make, including myself, is that money greatly enhances a schools chance of winning. We can all look at schools like Michigan, Texas, Tennessee and Nebraska to see that money can't buy wins. So although the Pac12 is far behind in the money race- if they can lift the Pac12's prestige a bit and get a couple playoff teams then money doesn't matter as much.

Lastly, if the Pac12 remains intact or tries to expand, IMO that means they have identified a path forward that is non-traditional from a media rights perspective. AKA they are far down the path in talks with Amazon, Netflix, etc.

 

[t-noah]

Win/Loss totals? If so, the FPI produced by ESPN is historically accurate.

It's OK. I didn't really know how to even ask the question. I had to look up "ML algorithms".

Also, just thought it weird why your post got the kibosh.

 

[HawaiiClone]

One thing that doesn’t get mentioned with TCU and Baylor is that they aren’t R1 Research schools. Every single Power 5 school is an R1 other than Baylor, TCU, and Wake Forest. Those schools are R2.

I’m not sure if it’s accurate, but the K-State 247 mod says that while the Big Ten requires expansion candidates to be AAU schools, the Pac-12 only requires them to be R1. If true, that would mean TCU and Baylor are out.

List of research universities in the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Interesting, that sheds more light on the situation. Thanks.

 

[BCClone]

 

[t-noah]

Win/Loss totals? If so, the FPI produced by ESPN is historically accurate.

Esp...who? It's no longer an endearing anacronym.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

You're welcome. It is easy to see that Knight has a distinguished background. His book, based on his dissertation at Cornell, alone likely would have won him the Nobel, but awards were not given in that subject until something like 1969. I believe Ludwig von Mises' theory of entrepreneurship is basically the same as Knight's. My understanding is that he based his theory on probability concepts developed by his younger brother Richard, however, who was a professor of aerospace engineering at Harvard:
Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, vol. 1 (LF ed.) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

The first 200 pages of Human Action is pretty philosophical and not easy to understand, and there are major differences between the Austrians and others on methodology, so if you wanted to read that you might start at page 201:
Human Action | Mises Institute

A shorter work of his having to do with entrepreneurship is Profit and Loss (1951), written not long after Human Action (1949):
Profit and Loss | Mises Institute

I'll add this piece by Rene Magritte, the famous Belgian surrealist, that I consider relevant. He painted hundreds of pipes, I believe. The words at the bottom are "This is not a pipe."

View attachment 88328

Consider that in relation to Knight's concept of risk versus uncertainty, and mathematical models more generally. The first part of his book is basically perfect competition, formalized.

Hayek taught from Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, I read somewhere, as a textbook at the London School of Economics. It influenced him, I believe, in these writings:

Hayek, Economics and Knowledge (1936) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

“The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

Really cool stuff! I specialize in more Bayesian Predictive modeling, but most ML models are just equation optimizations based on these principles.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

Esp...who? It's no longer an endearing anacronym.

Fair point.

 

[Beyerball]

Does it add value though? Your commissioner threw you under the bus saying half your media value came from Texas and OU. That puts a price tag of 20mil per school to be a little generous. Lets bump that number up 25% since it would be new markets and you get 25mil. Thats 8 mil less then what each pac12 school makes right now. How is that going to put more money in the big schools pockets? If USC cant go to the big ten per the alliance their only choice would be to go independent (which would keep them out of the playoff) or join the SEC which i guess could happen but is beyond unlikely.

I really really hope ISU and KU get invites to the pac12 but there is a world were that doesn't happen for those reasons. Either a straight block from the alliance or for the numbers not matching up.

You are not looking at the bigger picture here.

Ok let's say

Does it add value though? Your commissioner threw you under the bus saying half your media value came from Texas and OU. That puts a price tag of 20mil per school to be a little generous. Lets bump that number up 25% since it would be new markets and you get 25mil. Thats 8 mil less then what each pac12 school makes right now. How is that going to put more money in the big schools pockets? If USC cant go to the big ten per the alliance their only choice would be to go independent (which would keep them out of the playoff) or join the SEC which i guess could happen but is beyond unlikely.

I really really hope ISU and KU get invites to the pac12 but there is a world were that doesn't happen for those reasons. Either a straight block from the alliance or for the numbers not matching up.

Yes it adds value.

Avg per team payout in the PAC is around $31 mil...

It is a matter of if any of the A8 bring up the average. I can assure you Okie st, TT, WV, KU, ISU would be valued higher than 6 or more PAC schools TV wise.. Therefore the A8 schools bring up the average and that is all that matters.

The PAC is in process or getting ready to negotiate next round of TV deals (2023/24)...

It isn't like the PAC is adding 'X' number of teams and the contract will stay the same. You realize this right?

Now add in an entirely new time zone. I don't think some realize just how big of deal this is.

As for Bowlsby...I agree with you. IMO he should have been fired immediately. Wts...It wasn't Bowlsby who first said the "worth" of the A8 is 75% less... it was Sportswriters from sources from ESPN in a tactical move to try to convince the A8 to go to the AAC..

At first it was "A8 will lose 75%" of its value.

Now it is a consensus of "50%"....

Think about the value of the new PAC contract and ratings for Oregon and USC if they play 4-5 games a year in central time zone? Increasing the ratings and value of those brands "X" amount.

There are many factors at play.

 

[t-noah]

You're welcome. It is easy to see that Knight has a distinguished background. His book, based on his dissertation at Cornell, alone likely would have won him the Nobel, but awards were not given in that subject until something like 1969. I believe Ludwig von Mises' theory of entrepreneurship is basically the same as Knight's. My understanding is that he based his theory on probability concepts developed by his younger brother Richard, however, who was a professor of aerospace engineering at Harvard:
Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, vol. 1 (LF ed.) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

The first 200 pages of Human Action is pretty philosophical and not easy to understand, and there are major differences between the Austrians and others on methodology, so if you wanted to read that you might start at something like page 201:
Human Action | Mises Institute

A shorter work of his having to do with entrepreneurship is Profit and Loss (1951), written not long after Human Action (1949):
Profit and Loss | Mises Institute

I'll add this piece by Rene Magritte, the famous Belgian surrealist, that I consider relevant. He painted hundreds of pipes, I believe. The words at the bottom are "This is not a pipe."

View attachment 88328

Consider that in relation to Knight's concepts of risk versus uncertainty, and mathematical models more generally. The first part of his book is basically perfect competition, formalized.

Hayek taught from Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, I read somewhere, as a textbook at the London School of Economics. It influenced him, I believe, in these writings:

Hayek, Economics and Knowledge (1936) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

“The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

Earth to Clone83! Earth to Clone83!! Come in Clone 83!

 

[t-noah]

You're welcome. It is easy to see that Knight has a distinguished background. His book, based on his dissertation at Cornell, alone likely would have won him the Nobel, but awards were not given in that subject until something like 1969. I believe Ludwig von Mises' theory of entrepreneurship is basically the same as Knight's. My understanding is that he based his theory on probability concepts developed by his younger brother Richard, however, who was a professor of aerospace engineering at Harvard:
Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, vol. 1 (LF ed.) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

The first 200 pages of Human Action is pretty philosophical and not easy to understand, and there are major differences between the Austrians and others on methodology, so if you wanted to read that you might start at something like page 201:
Human Action | Mises Institute

A shorter work of his having to do with entrepreneurship is Profit and Loss (1951), written not long after Human Action (1949):
Profit and Loss | Mises Institute

I'll add this piece by Rene Magritte, the famous Belgian surrealist, that I consider relevant. He painted hundreds of pipes, I believe. The words at the bottom are "This is not a pipe."

View attachment 88328

Consider that in relation to Knight's concepts of risk versus uncertainty, and mathematical models more generally. The first part of his book is basically perfect competition, formalized.

Hayek taught from Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, I read somewhere, as a textbook at the London School of Economics. It influenced him, I believe, in these writings:

Hayek, Economics and Knowledge (1936) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

“The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

Pass the gruit! I'll try reading that again!

 

[Clone83]

Really cool stuff! I specialize in more Bayesian Predictive modeling, but most ML models are just equation optimizations based on these principles.

It is impossible to say what is going to happen. If you read what I posted (focus on Knight's definition of risk versus uncertainty), though, considering the role of the entrepreneur, ISU is positioned about as well as it can be given its people in key positions, IMO.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

One thing that doesn’t get mentioned with TCU and Baylor is that they aren’t R1 Research schools. Every single Power 5 school is an R1 other than Baylor, TCU, and Wake Forest. Those schools are R2.

I’m not sure if it’s accurate, but the K-State 247 mod says that while the Big Ten requires expansion candidates to be AAU schools, the Pac-12 only requires them to be R1. If true, that would mean TCU and Baylor are out.

List of research universities in the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I do keep coming back to this. Baylor and TCU are not great research institutions. They are good schools, but poor research. That matters to the PAC and B1G.

 

[t-noah]

It is impossible to say what is going to happen. If you read what I posted (focus on Knight's definition of risk versus uncertainty), though, considering the role of the entrepreneur, ISU is positioned about as well as it can be given its people in key positions, IMO.

I'm very glad there are smart people in this world!

 

[ImperialCyclone]

You are not looking at the bigger picture here.

Ok let's say



Yes it adds value.

Avg per team payout in the PAC is around $31 mil...

It is a matter of if any of the A8 bring up the average. I can assure you Okie st, TT, WV, KU, ISU would be valued higher than 6 or more PAC schools TV wise.. Therefore the A8 schools bring up the average and that is all that matters.

The PAC is in process or getting ready to negotiate next round of TV deals (2023/24)...

It isn't like the PAC is adding 'X' number of teams and the contract will stay the same. You realize this right?

Now add in an entirely new time zone. I don't think some realize just how big of deal this is.

As for Bowlsby...I agree with you. IMO he should have been fired immediately. Wts...It wasn't Bowlsby who first said the "worth" of the A8 is 75% less... it was Sportswriters from sources from ESPN in a tactical move to try to convince the A8 to go to the AAC..

At first it was "A8 will lose 75%" of its value.

Now it is a consensus of "50%"....

Think about the value of the new PAC contract and ratings for Oregon and USC if they play 4-5 games a year in central time zone? Increasing the ratings and value of those brands "X" amount.

There are many factors at play.

I think this is a really good point. I have seen the valuation number start out as -75% with OuT leaving. Then -50%. Now we are seeing more like -33%. -33% is getting close to PAC12 average per team payout then. This would change the script in that certain schools would indeed add value to the PAC. I would think ISU/KU/OSU/Tech would be those schools. Interesting indeed.

 

[AuH2O]

I have to question his sources as well. So, he's basically saying the PAC joined an alliance with the B1G so that in a couple of years, instead of now, the B1G can destroy their conference by poaching marquee teams. Makes perfect sense.

And what outstanding leadership by the PAC commissioner as well. He just took over the job, and in a couple of years he'll preside over the ruins of the PAC 12, because apparently he's powerless against the conference that couldn't even decide if it wanted to play football last season until other conferences decided it for them.

And of course his recent interview where he said in two weeks the PAC will announce (just as the season is beginning mind you) whether they're expanding or not must be some smokescreen for God only knows what, right?

Why would the PAC 12 convene a committee to vet expansion candidates, and set a date to announce their decision if they weren't going to expand and were just going to let their conference die a peaceful death? B1G fans are so freaking full of themselves.

The other logical problem with the “alliance” making the PAC stand pat to stabilize it, it only has any teeth if the Big 10 is the only option for USC. They could go independent. Hell, why not the SEC?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Does it add value though? Your commissioner threw you under the bus saying half your media value came from Texas and OU. That puts a price tag of 20mil per school to be a little generous. Lets bump that number up 25% since it would be new markets and you get 25mil. Thats 8 mil less then what each pac12 school makes right now. How is that going to put more money in the big schools pockets? If USC cant go to the big ten per the alliance their only choice would be to go independent (which would keep them out of the playoff) or join the SEC which i guess could happen but is beyond unlikely.

I really really hope ISU and KU get invites to the pac12 but there is a world were that doesn't happen for those reasons. Either a straight block from the alliance or for the numbers not matching up.

Ya, he said that to appease OU and UT, and the media has taken that quote and ran with it. But the media nor commissioner are not making the decisions on how much value each of the current Big 12 teams are worth.

What is the worth of getting into the central time zone to the Pac 12, what is the worth of millions of new customers to the league? Those are the questions that the Pac 12 commissioner and his media people are asking, not Bowlsby said the value of the other 8 teams was half of the total payout so each team is only worth $20 million.

 

[BCClone]

The other logical problem with the “alliance” making the PAC stand pat to stabilize it, it only has any teeth if the Big 10 is the only option for USC. They could go independent. Hell, why not the SEC?

Big ten is saying they will make 80 MM but expect the PAC to stand still and probably be in that 40MM area?

I think the PAC will do something, big ten probably does sit tight waiting for the ACC shake up. By then the whole landscape probably has changed and who knows what has happened or who is available.