Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[cyIclSoneU]

I’d argue the other way and say it’d be a positive for us.

I don’t think there’s any chance of it happening, but any situation where any of the other 8 get into a power league and we don’t is bad for us. I don’t think the SEC expanding to 20 makes it more likely that the B1G Pac ACC would add new schools - it might make it more likely that they tie together more closely as some kind of 40-school alliance. And that could leave ISU, KU, KSU, and WVU to basically join the American.

 

[ISUTex]

Gah, just another hack taking a swing at a spitball. Hell, Randy Peterson could post an article on Iowa State going to the BIG and it would hit the national wires in about 5 seconds.

Why would the SEC want either of the religious schools...TCU and Baylor...especially Baylor.

Uh, because they're P5 football programs in Texas? ( I doubt they are as hung up on Baylor as people on this board are. )

I don't think it will happen, but it's possible.

 

[Statefan10]

I don’t think there’s any chance of it happening, but any situation where any of the other 8 get into a power league and we don’t is bad for us. I don’t think the SEC expanding to 20 makes it more likely that the B1G Pac ACC would add new schools - it might make it more likely that they tie together more closely as some kind of 40-school alliance. And that could leave ISU, KU, KSU, and WVU to basically join the American.

I’d guess they’d each go out to grab 16 teams, but that’s just me. I agree that this is not happening.

 

[jbhtexas]

Gah, just another hack taking a swing at a spitball. Hell, Randy Peterson could post an article on Iowa State going to the BIG and it would hit the national wires in about 5 seconds.

Why would the SEC want either of the religious schools...TCU and Baylor...especially Baylor.

Maybe becasue they don't want to get sued by 8 schools. And Baylor > Vanderbilt in the sports that matter.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Rumor: TCU to the SEC?

Greg Swaim (sports media kook in Oklahoma) says the SEC’s response to the B1G/Pac/ACC alliance is planned to add TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, and likely Oklahoma State to “lock down Texas” and expand to 20 schools.

There is no reason to believe him but this would be pretty disastrous for Iowa State if somehow he is right. Depending on how strong that “alliance” is.

Man, negative angles attract you like a ******* magnet

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Man, negative angles attract you like a ******* magnet

It’s funny you say that because so many people here are totally convinced we are going to the B1G or Pac-12. On a non-ISU board like Reddit or something I am much more optimistic about the Cyclones than other people from all over the place. I feel bad for the people who have convinced themselves that this is going to all be good if it doesn’t turn out that way. Now time for more posts from Cyclones1969 about how Iowa fans are mean when they say the Big Ten probably won’t give us an invite.

 

[Cloneon]

It’s funny you say that because so many people here are totally convinced we are going to the B1G or Pac-12. On a non-ISU board like Reddit or something I am much more optimistic about the Cyclones than other people from all over the place. I feel bad for the people who have convinced themselves that this is going to all be good if it doesn’t turn out that way. Now time for more posts from Cyclones1969 about how Iowa fans are mean when they say the Big Ten probably won’t give us an invite.

The problem with all social media is everyone is an expert. There are a few posters here with solid evidence. Not hearsay. And, in the end, any business deal works with credible data.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The problem with all social media is everyone is an expert. There are a few posters here with solid evidence. Not hearsay. And, in the end, any business deal works with credible data.

I totally agree. We are all collectively really dumb. I include myself in that. It’s impossible to know what will happen when this all shakes out. I expect the decision makers in the B1G and Pac-12 are just starting in earnest their evaluation of what Iowa State could add to their leagues. Anybody who thinks they know that we are fine, or that we are screwed, is just lying.

 

[Die4Cy]

You soccer guys need to give it up with the promotion/relegation concept. It is a terrible idea for college football.

Building a team of experienced players that is good enough to get promoted, only to have them graduate and then get relegated, seems like a dumb deal. And for most teams out of the typical top 15, this is how life would be.

 

[Cyclones1969]

It’s funny you say that because so many people here are totally convinced we are going to the B1G or Pac-12. On a non-ISU board like Reddit or something I am much more optimistic about the Cyclones than other people from all over the place. I feel bad for the people who have convinced themselves that this is going to all be good if it doesn’t turn out that way. Now time for more posts from Cyclones1969 about how Iowa fans are mean when they say the Big Ten probably won’t give us an invite.

Were you ever going to explain all that contract language that the espn lawyers were going to destroy the big 12 with in court?

 

[Number Monkey]

They blew away the competition to the tune of $1 billion a year for the Thursday night NFL game.. High growth companies need growth to sustain their stock prices and CEO compensation.

So some math on that. TNF games average around 15m viewers on all formats. Moving to all streaming will likely decrease it some because a significant chunk of the US population still relies on the primary channels to get their games. This is part of the premium baked into the deal.

At about 15 games per year, this breaks out to a total season audience of 225m, or about $4.45 per set of eyeballs, though we can use $4.5 to keep the math easy.

If you take all the home games from last year and add up the eyeballs, you get the following:



To help the one year average, so I didn't have to pull and sort through tons of years, these numbers are duplicated, e.g. they are total audience viewing this team whether they were home or away. So the RRS counts for both Oklahoma and Texas in these numbers. Some thoughts:

1) I always felt "half the value" was a bit steep, but this shows a 32% reduction. I didn't take out games played against OU/TX, but that would increase it slightly. One thing not really factored in is that teams ranked higher playing games against other ranked teams rate higher than those who aren't. There would be more ranked teams with less losses against OU after they left, so you'll get a slight bump. And.... if Texas was good it would be more currently so it all pans out. While likely more accurate to remove, on a one year glance, the tiering shows up without it, so its kind of moot.

2) As you can see there is a standard stratification in the conference, with TX/OU being in a tier by themselves, OkSt/ISU being in a second tier, WVU/KState/Tech being in the third, the privates showing up in a forth, and Kansas stinking up the joint. Its probably not a shock to state everyone's least viewed game of the year was against the Jayhawks.

3) Taking the Prime number of $4.5 per eyeball (CFB eyeballs are worth the same amount as NFL eyeballs, maybe more since CFB audiences tend to be higher net worth. I also feel good about this number since its about what the B12 currently is paid) and dividing it by two shows the relative value of each property for last year.

4) This is the problem pegging the remaining 8 at the moment. Viewership ebbs and flows with success. Oklahoma State is in the best place because they've had far more success in the past 10-15 years than the rest. Iowa State is kind of showing their top end viewership right now, but no one is sure if they'll be able to sustain it. All together the Remaining 8 is worth about $225M based on last years numbers and 40% of that is embedded in ISU/OkSt's numbers. (sound familiar?) $225M per year from Amazon for 72 games works out to be about $3.1m per game or a yearly split of $28M per school, which could definitely ease the pain.

However, with the AAC being paid $10m per school, with the audience to back it up, it may get very difficult for the Remaining 8 to stick together if someone tosses a lifeline to OkSt, ISU, or WVU. The Big Ten thought they could grow the audiences of Rutgers and Maryland by taking them and, while they paid for them by carriage, each schools averages are closer to Kansas's.

Best thing to do at this point, if you're OkSt/ISU/WVU is stay in the Top 25 conversation and generate a lot of interest over the next 2-3 years. Definitely not a time for a slump.

Oh, and don't tie yourself to Kansas. Yikes.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Were you ever going to explain all that contract language that the espn lawyers were going to destroy the big 12 with in court?

Totally misunderstood my earlier point, but it actually fits the topic: plenty of posters on here, who have never so much as read the contract, are 100% convinced that the Big 12 would beat ESPN in court and ESPN would have no arguments to make at all.

 

[Cydwinder]

So some math on that. TNF games average around 15m viewers on all formats. Moving to all streaming will likely decrease it some because a significant chunk of the US population still relies on the primary channels to get their games. This is part of the premium baked into the deal.

At about 15 games per year, this breaks out to a total season audience of 225m, or about $4.45 per set of eyeballs, though we can use $4.5 to keep the math easy.

If you take all the home games from last year and add up the eyeballs, you get the following:

View attachment 88188

To help the one year average, so I didn't have to pull and sort through tons of years, these numbers are duplicated, e.g. they are total audience viewing this team whether they were home or away. So the RRS counts for both Oklahoma and Texas in these numbers. Some thoughts:

1) I always felt "half the value" was a bit steep, but this shows a 32% reduction. I didn't take out games played against OU/TX, but that would increase it slightly. One thing not really factored in is that teams ranked higher playing games against other ranked teams rate higher than those who aren't. There would be more ranked teams with less losses against OU after they left, so you'll get a slight bump. And.... if Texas was good it would be more currently so it all pans out. While likely more accurate to remove, on a one year glance, the tiering shows up without it, so its kind of moot.

2) As you can see there is a standard stratification in the conference, with TX/OU being in a tier by themselves, OkSt/ISU being in a second tier, WVU/KState/Tech being in the third, the privates showing up in a forth, and Kansas stinking up the joint. Its probably not a shock to state everyone's least viewed game of the year was against the Jayhawks.

3) Taking the Prime number of $4.5 per eyeball (CFB eyeballs are worth the same amount as NFL eyeballs, maybe more since CFB audiences tend to be higher net worth. I also feel good about this number since its about what the B12 currently is paid) and dividing it by two shows the relative value of each property for last year.

4) This is the problem pegging the remaining 8 at the moment. Viewership ebbs and flows with success. Oklahoma State is in the best place because they've had far more success in the past 10-15 years than the rest. Iowa State is kind of showing their top end viewership right now, but no one is sure if they'll be able to sustain it. All together the Remaining 8 is worth about $225M based on last years numbers and 40% of that is embedded in ISU/OkSt's numbers. (sound familiar?) $225M per year from Amazon for 72 games works out to be about $3.1m per game or a yearly split of $28M per school, which could definitely ease the pain.

However, with the AAC being paid $10m per school, with the audience to back it up, it may get very difficult for the Remaining 8 to stick together if someone tosses a lifeline to OkSt, ISU, or WVU. The Big Ten thought they could grow the audiences of Rutgers and Maryland by taking them and, while they paid for them by carriage, each schools averages are closer to Kansas's.

Best thing to do at this point, if you're OkSt/ISU/WVU is stay in the Top 25 conversation and generate a lot of interest over the next 2-3 years. Definitely not a time for a slump.

Oh, and don't tie yourself to Kansas. Yikes.

Very interesting analysis. Something that stands out to me is that the Prime average of 4.18M per game for ISU would translate to about 50M for a 12 game season, which is right in line with at least maintaining payouts in most expansion scenarios.

 

[Number Monkey]

You soccer guys need to give it up with the promotion/relegation concept. It is a terrible idea for college football.

Building a team of experienced players that is good enough to get promoted, only to have them graduate and then get relegated, seems like a dumb deal. And for most teams out of the typical top 15, this is how life would be.

You could tackle this by putting relegation/promotion on a 3-5 year average. When using athletes with a limited playing career you'd have to make it like relegation lite, so those teams who do the best can get in to only replace those who just aren't investing well at all. Think swapping Cinci/UCF for Wake, or Oregon State as only 5-10% of the teams would ever be involved and that would be only every so often as well.

I honestly think, if I were the Big Ten, I'd look at setting something like this up so you ensured that the bulk of the money went to the top performing teams, yet you gave everyone a drawer of knives to fight for the last few spots.

Its likely a much more fair approach than "we signed up first" or "I happen to be outside a big city" or "I won a lot 30 years ago"

 

[Cybone]

Totally misunderstood my earlier point, but it actually fits the topic: plenty of posters on here, who have never so much as read the contract, are 100% convinced that the Big 12 would beat ESPN in court and ESPN would have no arguments to make at all.

If ESPN were smart, all correspondence related to any mention of realignment should have their lawyers cc’d on it to keep it from being produced during discovery. I am skeptical if this gets litigated, but if it does…it absolutely won’t go to court.

 

[Cyclones1969]

Totally misunderstood my earlier point, but it actually fits the topic: plenty of posters on here, who have never so much as read the contract, are 100% convinced that the Big 12 would beat ESPN in court and ESPN would have no arguments to make at all.

That’s not what you said, though.

no one ever asserted that Disney does not have the best attorneys available. Some of us did say that the case would never even see discovery because of potential exposure for people testifying under oath. And that there was no benefit to bowlsby’s c and d if he was bluffing, as the die had already been cast.

it was you that made all the other noise about how disneys attorneys would destroy the big 12 in court, and then would not explain your assertion

 

[cyIclSoneU]

That’s not what you said, though.

no one ever asserted that Disney does not have the best attorneys available. Some of us did say that the case would never even see discovery because of potential exposure for people testifying under oath. And that there was no benefit to bowlsby’s c and d if he was bluffing, as the die had already been cast.

it was you that made all the other noise about how disneys attorneys would destroy the big 12 in court, and then would not explain your assertion

You’re wrong, and it would be easy for you to prove it (if you weren’t) simply by quoting my posts. Your post here is actually pretty close to what I said. I don’t remember who I replied to at first who suggested that the Big 12 would definitely win in court, but that’s what I was disagreeing with.

 

[isucy86]

Rumor: TCU to the SEC?

Greg Swaim (sports media kook in Oklahoma) says the SEC’s response to the B1G/Pac/ACC alliance is planned to add TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, and likely Oklahoma State to “lock down Texas” and expand to 20 schools.

There is no reason to believe him but this would be pretty disastrous for Iowa State if somehow he is right. Depending on how strong that “alliance” is.

How is this bad for ISU??

If the SEC sees value in TT, Baylor and TCU, then obviously ISU has value in the creation of mega conferences. Whether it be a #'s game in the battle between SEC & Alliance. Or SEC knowing that a conference needs depth, otherwise really good teams are just going to beat up on each other.

If anything, rumor indicates to me there is a systematic plan happening behind the scene.

 

[CarrollCyclone]

Rumor: TCU to the SEC?

Greg Swaim (sports media kook in Oklahoma) says the SEC’s response to the B1G/Pac/ACC alliance is planned to add TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, and likely Oklahoma State to “lock down Texas” and expand to 20 schools.

There is no reason to believe him but this would be pretty disastrous for Iowa State if somehow he is right. Depending on how strong that “alliance” is.

Never happen. Texas is already locked down for the SEC with UT and A&M. Those other four schools add nothing to the SEC other than diluting everyone else's revenue payments.

 

[CyrideAllstar]

Never happen. Texas is already locked down for the SEC with UT and A&M. Those other four schools add nothing to the SEC other than diluting everyone else's revenue payments.

I like how Houston gets left out of these conversations. If they got elevated to P5, they could do some serious damage and steal quite a few hometown kids.