Big 12 Champion Computer Projection

[Dale]

@Dale Is there any changes to the percentages if Texas beats Baylor tonight?

A little. Baylor wins:

Iowa St.: 54.6% (30.6% outright, 24.0% tied)
Baylor: 30.2% (13.5% outright, 16.7% tied)
Kansas St.: 29.1% (13.4% outright, 15.8% tied)
Kansas: 18.9% (5.7% outright, 13.3% tied)
Texas Tech: 11.9% (3.3% outright, 8.6% tied)

Texas wins:

Iowa St.: 59.9% (36.0% outright, 23.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 32.2% (15.2% outright, 17.0% tied)
Kansas: 22.0% (7.2% outright, 14.9% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.3% (4.3% outright, 10.0% tied)
Baylor: 13.5% (4.6% outright, 8.9% tied)

 

[aeroclone]

A little. Baylor wins:

Iowa St.: 54.6% (30.6% outright, 24.0% tied)
Baylor: 30.2% (13.5% outright, 16.7% tied)
Kansas St.: 29.1% (13.4% outright, 15.8% tied)
Kansas: 18.9% (5.7% outright, 13.3% tied)
Texas Tech: 11.9% (3.3% outright, 8.6% tied)

Texas wins:

Iowa St.: 59.9% (36.0% outright, 23.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 32.2% (15.2% outright, 17.0% tied)
Kansas: 22.0% (7.2% outright, 14.9% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.3% (4.3% outright, 10.0% tied)
Baylor: 13.5% (4.6% outright, 8.9% tied)

Welp...

 

[mynameisjonas]

Texas is looking very solid so far against Baylor. Texas up 14-6

 

[Deleted member 8507]

That game is huge for us. After that we will have already played KU, KSU, Baylor, and TT on the road. We would have our hardest games at home.

I'm not sure how schedules lie, but what does the schedules say on who we want to win between baylor and K state?

I like this site to track schedules http://playoffstatus.com/big12basketball/big12basketballschedule.html

 

[cloneteach]

Alright I guess it is time to run it to see what happens if ISU wins Saturday and K-State loses to Baylor

 

[MartinCy]

A little. Baylor wins:

Iowa St.: 54.6% (30.6% outright, 24.0% tied)
Baylor: 30.2% (13.5% outright, 16.7% tied)
Kansas St.: 29.1% (13.4% outright, 15.8% tied)
Kansas: 18.9% (5.7% outright, 13.3% tied)
Texas Tech: 11.9% (3.3% outright, 8.6% tied)

Texas wins:

Iowa St.: 59.9% (36.0% outright, 23.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 32.2% (15.2% outright, 17.0% tied)
Kansas: 22.0% (7.2% outright, 14.9% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.3% (4.3% outright, 10.0% tied)
Baylor: 13.5% (4.6% outright, 8.9% tied)

Assuming KU beats OK State at home Saturday I'd be curious to see how different outcomes of ISU/TCU and KState@Baylor impact things. Appreciate your work. Thx

 

[brokenloginagain]

this is going to be a wild finish. its quite possible both tx and ttech could win the next 4-5 games, while baylor and KSU beat each other up + some other tough match ups.

I think 13-5 wins the league.

 

[cyclones500]

I think 13-5 wins the league.

13-5 looks realistic to me, or at least gains a share. 14-4 should be good enough for outright title.

 

[Dale]

Assuming KU beats OK State at home Saturday I'd be curious to see how different outcomes of ISU/TCU and KState@Baylor impact things. Appreciate your work. Thx

Okay. All these are with KU beating OSU:

ISU over TCU, Baylor over KSU:
Iowa St.: 66.8% (41.9% outright, 24.9% tied)
Kansas: 22.9% (7.4% outright, 15.4% tied)
Kansas St.: 22.0% (8.4% outright, 13.6% tied)
Baylor: 16.9% (5.9% outright, 11.0% tied)
Texas Tech: 13.8% (4.2% outright, 9.6% tied)

ISU over TCU, KSU over Baylor:
Iowa St.: 59.8% (35.6% outright, 24.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 44.6% (23.6% outright, 21.0% tied)
Kansas: 19.5% (5.8% outright, 13.7% tied)
Texas Tech: 11.1% (3.1% outright, 8.1% tied)
Baylor: 4.3% (0.9% outright, 3.4% tied)

TCU over ISU, Baylor over KSU:
Iowa St.: 41.4% (18.9% outright, 22.5% tied)
Kansas: 33.9% (13.3% outright, 20.6% tied)
Kansas St.: 30.3% (13.0% outright, 17.3% tied)
Baylor: 24.1% (9.1% outright, 15.0% tied)
Texas Tech: 20.0% (6.7% outright, 13.3% tied)

TCU over ISU, KSU over Baylor:
Kansas St.: 56.6% (33.1% outright, 23.6% tied)
Iowa St.: 35.5% (15.4% outright, 20.1% tied)
Kansas: 28.1% (10.4% outright, 17.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 16.0% (5.0% outright, 10.9% tied)
Baylor: 6.6% (1.6% outright, 5.0% tied)

And in the 5% of scenarios where ISU and Baylor win and OSU beats Kansas:

Iowa St.: 71.2% (47.9% outright, 23.3% tied)
Kansas St.: 24.0% (9.7% outright, 14.3% tied)
Baylor: 18.6% (6.8% outright, 11.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 15.4% (5.0% outright, 10.3% tied)
Kansas: 7.6% (1.4% outright, 6.2% tied)

 

[alarson]

Interesting that if TCU beat us our chances would be better with KSU winning over Baylor, but if we beat TCU our chances are better with Baylor beating KSU

 

[Gunnerclone]

Did anyone notice Bruce getting held back by one of his players at the end last night. Basically in a 'calm your ass down, I'll handle this manner. '

Ya that told me that the SRs on that team are running the show in spite of Weber. That was pretty dismissive by Snead.

 

[CyBobby]

I only hope your projection is right because if a team from the state of Kansas has to win the Big 12 Title, I would much rather have it be KU than the Wildcats, who I cannot stand, and dislike with a passion.....

 

[Dale]

I think 13-5 wins the league.

That's the most likely scenario.

Big 12 Champion records:
11-7: 0.7%
12-6: 17.5%
13-5: 46.0%
14-4: 29.2%
15-3: 6.5%
16-2: 0.2%

 

[cyclonedave25]

Every time I check this thread, I keep thinking to myself how much I would give to get that KSU game back in Hilton.

 

[IlliniCy]

I only hope your projection is right because if a team from the state of Kansas has to win the Big 12 Title, I would much rather have it be KU than the Wildcats, who I cannot stand, and dislike with a passion.....

Oddly enough, I agree. I guess it's because KU is the stench that I'm already used to, so I don't want a new stink.

 

[psychlone99]

Every time I check this thread, I keep thinking to myself how much I would give to get that KSU game back in Hilton.

I've tried not to torment myself by recognizing that nothing happens in a vacuum. My hope is that there were lessons learned from that gut-wrenching KSU loss that paid dividends in the narrow victories against Texas and OU. Maybe we slip up later if we don't learn from KSU. It's a long season- slip-ups happen.

 

[Cyched]

Every time I check this thread, I keep thinking to myself how much I would give to get that KSU game back in Hilton.

 

[KKramer]

I only hope your projection is right because if a team from the state of Kansas has to win the Big 12 Title, I would much rather have it be KU than the Wildcats, who I cannot stand, and dislike with a passion.....

No way dude.

 

[moneyball]

That isn't the case. Note that if TCU and KSU win, we fall to 2nd best chance to win the league title to KSU.

Interesting that if TCU beat us our chances would be better with KSU winning over Baylor, but if we beat TCU our chances are better with Baylor beating KSU

 

[heitclone]

It's gross that we have to cheer for Baylor this weekend.