@herbicide
Stepping back from this for a few days but glad to return to it now.
I think our back and forth, which I did enjoy immensely, missed kind of my overall point that kicked off the conversation in the first place -- while we talked about the initial German thrust to Paris in 1914, most of our "what if" scenarios about the Great War concern 1917 and the German Spring Offensive of 1918. These were comparatively late in the war, which prompted my comment about it being a game that came down to the wire and, therefore, in its morbid way, a more interesting one than the World War, which was over early in its course.
The World War was, again, basically over by the end of 1942 with the destruction of the German Eight Army in Stalingrad, Rommel being stopped in his tracks at El Alamein with the landings for Operation Torch behind him, and the destruction of the cream of the Japanese carrier forces at the Battle of Midway that summer. Your point about the German failure to take Moscow in late 1941 only adds to my point -- your point that the failure to take Moscow was a major turning point of the war (and it was) furthers my point that the World War was over early. I have never seen anybody make even a reasonable case the Allies were worried about losing the war in spring 1945 the way they were in 1918. Things were very touch-and-go for them that spring.
Going through the points if there is something relevant to add...
(1.) I do not know how one can say the Germans did not win on the Eastern Front, defeating the Romanov regime and its successors in the process. They did this against a foe with massive numbers while needing to hold on the Western Front and help out their various incompetent allies throughout the rest of Europe. The fact Imperial Russia was a vulnerable target, full of internal instability and strife, is irrelevant. The Germans forced them out.
I would probably argue the Soviet Union in 1941 was more of a basket case (after Stalin's purges, the various show trials, force collectivization, millions dying in famines, barely able to defeat little Finland, countless political exiles, international pariah, etc.) than the Czarist regime in 1914. Stalin got his act together far better than Nicolas did, though, but I doubt you would argue that Soviet weakness in the early part of the war makes your "near victory" for them, had Germany shown more focus to take Leningrad and Moscow, any less an accomplishment.
(2.) I know this is rah-rah stuff from a commander, but every source that I have seen said the Allies were gravely worried in April 1918 about the Germans...
April 1918 is a lot closer to the end of the war than, say, November 1942 and Stalingrad.
(3.) I think the U-Boat question (in WWII) is an interesting one we cannot resolve. I just know Hitler's thoughts (and their naval leaderships' desires and intended strategies) in declaring war on the United States. Hitler rightfully knew the centerpiece of the war was the Eastern Front. Victory there would divide the planet between German and Anglo-American spheres, and even if Fortress Britain stood, there was no practical way to reconquer Europe once the Nazis have a chance to wheel and consolidate their empire, hunkering down for a long Cold War.
Unless you bring nuclear weapons into it... Not going there.
The Red Army with American supplies is more like the Red Army we know. It has trucks and fuel to move supplies, equipment, and men around. Those men are better fed and clothed, much more able to fight and move in the winter. Their officers have radios and telegraphs to communicate and coordinate with each other, and their railroad system has functioning engines and cars to move supplies on a strategic level. Without Lend-Lease, the Red Army is much more like the Russian army of the last war. It might be massive, but it is less able to fight a modern, mobile war. The Wehrmacht can run circles around it, and the war ends in a German victory.
Hitler bet the U-Boats could suck just enough life out of the Red Army to win on the Eastern Front, and then nothing else would matter. He was wrong.
I just never saw it as an unreasonable gamble. Getting stuck in a long war of attrition with the Soviets (with American food and supplies behind them) is a war the Germans were never going to win anyways, so Hitler went for broke on his best chance.
(4.) You may have an angle if Churchill's government had fallen. Then again, Hitler had shown himself entirely untrustworthy at Munich not too long before that. I have never found a solid consensus about if Churchill can survive a massacre at Dunkirk.
Operation Sealion was a
bad idea and would have been doomed to disaster. There was a heinous battle of attrition on both sides during the Battle of Britain, but the Luftwaffe was never really close to obtaining air superiority. Neither did they have much of any anti-shipping capabilities (indeed, the failure to develop an anti-shipping bombing campaign to complement the U-Boat campaign in the Atlantic, away from organized Allied radar and fighter coverage, was a serious part of their failure in the Battle of the Atlantic) to drive off the Royal Navy. Remember the careful, meticulous preparation that went into Overlord when the Allies had air superiority and naval dominance? Trying to do the same thing the other direction into a strong air force, strong navy, and a whole lot of minefields in the English Channel would have, at best, gotten the invasion force stranded and captured, and probably something much worse than that.
Concentrate your shipping? Centralizing the targets for the bombers! Spreading them out? Makes it easy for the U-Boats to pick them off one-by-one. Introducing this dynamic into the Battle of the Atlantic puts a ton of strain on the Allies. Then again, a long-range German bomber sure would have helped against concentrated Soviet industry and refineries on the Eastern Front, but that is a conversation about another technical failure from the Germans.
Trying to do it with river barges in a notoriously feisty body of water is almost comical.
(5.) The prewar population of Moscow was on the order of 4 million. The prewar population of Stalingrad was roughly 10% of that. A vicious, street-to-street, house-to-house, urban war of attrition with winter closing in and Stalin throwing the entire kitchen at you, when the Germans were not prepared for a long winter siege and at the ragged end of a very overextended supply line, well, not sure it would have worked out perfectly for them.
I find it funny you keep bringing up German supply and manpower problems in the 1910s and I keep doing the same thing in the 1940s. Haha. I think your concluding remarks about the simple lack of numbers in both conflicts are pretty apt.
(6.) I guess I should be kind and point out a "flaw" in my idea here -- assume the Germans take Paris in 1918. You kind of have to assume that an incredible victory on the scale of the Battle of Tannenburg happens in the east, otherwise the Russians might just steamroll their way into East Prussia and eventually Berlin without much to stop them. I know the Germans lost but, considering the raw numbers, it was amazing they made it as far as they did.
(7.) I agree, the Germans were screwed after 1918. The balance of power, which was somewhat close in 1918, was tipping quickly and wildly in the Allies' favor after that point with the German economy collapsing and American arms/men pouring in.
(8.) I think any sound strategist would have seen the U-Boats in both wars as a "go for broke" short-term strategy built around winning these wars quickly, because I think we would both agree that Germany starves out in the 1910s and/or Stalin has more bodies than they do and he is willing to use them in the 1940s. I see their thinking in trying to win now.
We know what effective blockades can do. See the Confederacy in the Civil War, Germany in the Great War, and Japan in the World War. The fact the Germans were not quite able to implement it does not mean it was not worth trying given their other options.
If it all comes down to Moscow in 1941, as you seem to say is perhaps the best chance for the Germans winning the war, every convoy loss on the route to Murmansk is a little victory for your last big push to victory. Screw what happens after that because, frankly, if this does not work, then nothing else after that was going to matter anyways.