Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
So I guess we’ve determined that we’re going to the Sugar Bowl!
How awesome would that be though?
How awesome would that be though?
It's been a LONG time since I've posted here, but finding a like-minded poster has drawn me back in. I've been maintaining my own stochastic simulation as well based on FPI (no particular reason for using that), and it has similar numbers for chances to make the title game:
OU 73%
UT 51%
WVU 41%
ISU 25.1%
TTU 10%
OSU 0.4%
others negligible. I admittedly gave up at coding 6-way (or more) tiebreakers and don't directly deal with margin-of-victory tiebreakers, but those are pretty rare events.
FPI has a bit more love for Texas at home vs ISU than Massey, which is the major difference I think. An interesting consequence is a slight preference for WVU (25.5% chance with a win) over UT (24.7% chance with a win) in terms of ISU's championship game prospects. ISU is also guaranteed to control its destiny after this weekend with ISU win + WVU win + TTU win + (TTU win by less than 8 OR more than 11 OR TCU loss)... so I'll still cheer for WVU this weekend, since that's the only way ISU controls its destiny.
Looking at the tie breakers. You want UT to beat WVU. That would give WVU their second conference loss and we hold the head to head tie breaker. Then when we go down to Austin, we give UT their second conference loss and we will then hold the head to head tie breaker over UT, WVU and TT. We would not have to sweat out the OU vs. WVU game for WVU to get their second conference loss.
If UT beats WVU, then there's still a 3-way tiebreaker in play (OU-ISU-UT) that can keep ISU out if TCU finishes ahead of (or, in some cases, tied with) OSU. I'm not sure where this WVU loss stuff came from in the online community, but in the specific case I mentioned above ISU definitely controls its destiny. If UT beats WVU this week, then ISU will need to wait until at least next week before controlling its destiny.
Example standings that would be bad for ISU that could come from a Texas win:
OU/ISU/UT 7-2
WVU 5-4
TCU/TTU/KSU 4-5
OSU/BAY 3-6
KU 1-8
3-way round robin between OU/ISU/UT goes 1-1, so nothing there. OU/ISU/UT all beat WVU. ISU and OU are 2-1 vs TCU/TTU/KSU, but Texas is 3-0 so advances. OU beat ISU, so it advances. ISU gets left out. I found "out of our control" scenarios for every combination of Texas winning and other games that happen this week.
WVU winning and Texas winning are essentially a wash in the overall scheme of tiebreakers, which is why the probabilities don't shift much based on that game. The OP's numbers show essentially the same thing. But... if the goal is to control your destiny as soon as possible (i.e. this week), a WVU win (plus TTU win plus TCU loss, or margin of victory stuff) is the only way it happens.
Not sure where you are putting OU into the three way tie. Where does OU pick up their second loss? Is it against WVU or TT? They and WVU are sitting at one loss. Need someone to beat OU to pull out that situation. I think you are overestimating TCU's ability to rally. Have you looked at how many people they have lost to injuries and other off the field issues.
The picture will get clearer after this weekend
I fully agree - if we're talking about what will *probably* happen then you're right. In terms of probability, there's a very slight preference for WVU to lose (Massey) or for WVU to win (FPI) - lots of viable scenarios on either side. I can understand the arguments you make, and agree (and hope) that TCU is probably dead in the water to kill off that particular 3-way tiebreak scenario. Also agree that a clear path may present itself after this week (though depending on what happens, it could still be pretty muddy).
But my point is that to argue "ISU controls its destiny", ALL of the doors to being left out need to be closed. There are 32,768 scenarios remaining after this weekend, and if WVU loses to Texas on Saturday then there are guaranteed to be scenarios where a 7-win ISU team gets left out.
Probable? Not really (as you mentioned, it'd take an OU loss in, e.g., the Bedlam game, along with some TCU wins), but you don't truly control your destiny if there's any way you can be left out. Because of the matchups this weekend, OU and Texas losing (+ TCU losing or viable margin of victory scenarios in OU-TTU) are actually a guarantee that ISU gets in with a 7-win record (considering those 32,768 scenarios), and the only such guarantee that can be made based on this weekend's results.
I disagree with this. WVU losing this weekend gives them their second loss. If ISU, OU, and UT (minus ISU) win out, we are in the championship game.
What if WVU beats OU in Morgantown? What happens if all 4 teams finish 7-2 in conference?
To that end, if ISU and OU (forget about UT) win out, then ISU is in. I'm only saying *EDIT: for ISU* to control its destiny immediately after this weekend, WVU needs to beat UT.
ISU survives all 4-way tie scenarios at 7-2. It's just the 3-way ties that have any negative potential (or, of course, 2-way ties for second with OU).
ISU wins out + 90% chance we are in the Championship game. That's about as good as we can hope for ISU to date.
I was actually talking "controls destiny" not probability. If WVU beats UT and then turns around and beats OU. WVU wins the conference and ISU is left out because they lose the tie breaker to OU. A WVU win against UT still leaves that door open for ISU being left out.
A UT beating WVU puts us in a "controls destiny" situation.
OU beats WVU then OU wins conference and ISU wins three way tie with ISU/UT/WVU and we are wearing White in Dallas.
WVU beats OU then four way tie for first. OU/UT/WVU/ISU all sitting at 7-2. UT and ISU sitting at 2-1 against the 4 and OU and WVU sitting at 1-2 against the four. ISU wins head to head with UT.
ISU is the regular season champ and wearing Red (or all Black with a red chrome face mask) in Dallas facing UT in the rematch.
Have not looked at what happens if TT wins out.
No, UT beating WVU does not put us in that situation come Sunday morning. All that's needed to disprove that is a single counterexample (and there are many), such as what I gave above. The scenarios you mention don't account for a possible 3-way ISU/OU/UT tie, which can still go against ISU. Here's one exact W/L scenario that puts ISU out with a UT over WVU win, and leads to the standings I gave above:
Week 10 winners: ISU, UT, TTU, OSU, KSU
Week 11: TCU, UT, OU, KSU, ISU
Week 12: WVU, OU TCU, KSU, ISU
Week 13: UT, OU, TCU, BAY, ISU
That gives a 3-way tie where TCU gives us the boot as described above. Is that specific scenario probable? No, but it is sufficient to show that ISU doesn't control its destiny with just a UT win. Similar scenarios exist for all such UT win combos this weekend.
Could WVU winning be bad? Certainly, as you suggest it could lead us to a tie for 2nd with OU at the end if OU doesn't lose this week. BUT, as I mentioned, if ISU wins, WVU wins, OU loses and (margin of victory in TTU/OU or TCU loss) happen, then there is NO such scenario come Sunday morning in which ISU doesn't control its destiny. (I'm not necessarily advocating this happening; I'm just saying it's the only way ISU can possibly control its destiny on Sunday morning - there are counterexamples for every other scenario.)
TTU winning over OU (or winning out) presents no issues for a 7-win ISU, and is a good thing in the scenario I mention.
I appreciate the fact that we could completely control our own destiny with a WVU win and a TTU win, but that would be the worst possible outcome for the Big 12 and for ISU's CFP ranking. We may not have a chance to make the CFP's Final 4, but we absolutely have a chance to get in the Top 10. Imagine the attention ISU will receive if we can finish the season by beating a Top 10 Texas, our nemesis KSU and a Top 5 OU.
I never said any combination of wins tomorrow would put ISU into a "control your own destiny" situation. You did and it does not. I just said that UT beating WVU puts us in a stronger position of making the CCG.
I am not going to sweat a combination that requires the bottom half of the conference pulling off multiple upsets.
It's simple. Win out. OU or UT beats WVU. We're in.
