I did this last year, and we're finally far enough into the season that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game. Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd. Texas: 77.5% (56.6% 1st, 20.9% 2nd) Oklahoma: 59.2% (21.4% 1st, 37.9% 2nd) West Virginia: 32.6% (14.1% 1st, 18.5% 2nd) TCU: 15.7% (3.7% 1st, 12.0% 2nd) Iowa St.: 6.2% (1.6% 1st, 4.6% 2nd) Texas Tech: 5.3% (1.7% 1st, 3.6% 2nd) Oklahoma St.: 3.1% (0.9% 1st, 2.2% 2nd) Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd) Kansas and KSU: zippo And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening: Oklahoma/Texas: 42.0% Texas/West Virginia: 19.2% TCU/Texas: 10.6% Oklahoma/West Virginia: 9.3% Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.1% Oklahoma/TCU: 2.7% Texas/Texas Tech: 2.4% Iowa St./Texas: 1.6% Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.6% TCU/West Virginia: 1.6% Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.3% Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.2% (Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 98.8% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.) As you might imagine, Iowa State's Championship Game odds go down the toilet if they lose to West Virginia. The odds if Iowa State wins (ignoring the other games that week): Iowa St.: 12.0% (3.2% 1st, 8.8% 2nd) And if the Cyclones lose: Iowa St.: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.6% 2nd) And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record (assuming that game 12 is a gimme): 3-9: 0.0% 4-8: 1.0% 5-7: 7.0% 6-6: 23.6% 7-5: 36.9% 8-4: 25.5% 9-3: 6.0% Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.