Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[cycfan1]

In theory, yes as the Sugar Bowl would get first pick of Big XII. Oklahoma not available (playoff) so they pick team #2. However, Texas could likely be more enticing from a Sugar Bowl perspective. Bigger name, more fans, TV ratings, etc.

While Texas over ISU looks like the right pick on paper, but ISU would absolutely overrun NOLA.
ISU fans been begging for a decent bowl location for 10 years now.
TV rating or name they couldn't touch, but wouldn't say # of fans would be as skewed as would think

 

[jbhtexas]

What this all means is that I would still give us a tiny shot at making the CFP.

Move the Incarnate Word game to Jerry World at 8:00 PM. ISU wins two games in the same day...how could the CFP committee possibly not take ISU?

 

[wclarson]

Yes but I am surprised that Texas fell all the way to 17 in the CFP rankings. Hopefully they can move back into Top 10 with wins over WVU and TTU. Of course, we also want OU to win their remaining Big 12 regular season games.

If ISU makes the conference championship game and wins out, we will be 9-3 and likely regain the #1 SOS in the nation (which we will lose after the KU game). The teams closest to us for SOS are LSU and a few other SEC teams, but they all still have a cupcake nonconference game left.

What this all means is that I would still give us a tiny shot at making the CFP. Lets say Alabama, Clemson, and ND remain undefeated. It's very conceivable that there will be no 1 loss P5 teams if that happens. And it's also conceivable that the 2 loss teams will look inferior when compared to our #1 SOS, 8 game win streak and 3 wins against Top 10 schools. I know this is just a pipe dream at this point, but I want to be on the record if things continue falling our way!

Pipe dream. We will not end the year with #1 SOS. Our current SOS rating only is comprised of teams we've played. we have a weak schedule for the rest of the year that will bring us down. also, even an 8 game winning streak and conference championship wont be enough see USC last year. Thats alright though, if we are in the position we will still end up in a January bowl... sign me up!

 

[wclarson]

While Texas over ISU looks like the right pick on paper, but ISU would absolutely overrun NOLA.
ISU fans been begging for a decent bowl location for 10 years now.
TV rating or name they couldn't touch, but wouldn't say # of fans would be as skewed as would think

its not about fans... its TV Ratings. People watch Texas on a national level. ISU is not a "sexy" matchup.

 

[tman24]

its not about fans... its TV Ratings. People watch Texas on a national level. ISU is not a "sexy" matchup.

i kid but we are getting pretty sexy with all these job vacancies and CMC name getting thrown around.

 

[DeereClone]

While Texas over ISU looks like the right pick on paper, but ISU would absolutely overrun NOLA.
ISU fans been begging for a decent bowl location for 10 years now.
TV rating or name they couldn't touch, but wouldn't say # of fans would be as skewed as would think

Texas would take more fans to the sugar bowl this year than we would.

Their fan base is bigger, closer, and they are just as hungry as we are for a good bowl game.

 

[CyberJJJ]

In theory, yes as the Sugar Bowl would get first pick of Big XII. Oklahoma not available (playoff) so they pick team #2. However, Texas could likely be more enticing from a Sugar Bowl perspective. Bigger name, more fans, TV ratings, etc.

But would they be happy having to give the TV rights to the Shorthorn network?

 

[DarkStar]

In theory, yes as the Sugar Bowl would get first pick of Big XII. Oklahoma not available (playoff) so they pick team #2. However, Texas could likely be more enticing from a Sugar Bowl perspective. Bigger name, more fans, TV ratings, etc.

There was a lot of discussion about this back in 2015. OU was a lock for the playoffs but there was a log jam for #2 in the conference. Reporting then said that conference tie breaker rules would be used to determine who would get the contract spot at the Sugar Bowl. It is the only Big 12 bowl where the invite is tied to conference standings.

With the new CCG, the second place team that would get this spot, based on tie breaker rules, will play in the CCG. Do they lose that spot by losing the CCG?

 

[cycfan1]

Texas would take more fans to the sugar bowl this year than we would.

Their fan base is bigger, closer, and they are just as hungry as we are for a good bowl game.

Its a bigger fanbase no doubt.
Closer doesn't mean much. 8 hrs drive from Austin vs 15 hr drive - your likely to fly anyway. Yes i realize alumni base is all over not just in Austin.
However, a program that has played in National Championships is not as hungry as ISU to play in Sugar Bowl. Absolutely no way.

Stadium only holds 80k. Vs an SEC team your only going to get 40k max seats if not less.
We brought ~30k to Memphis last year only 5 years removed from being there.

ISU has essentially only been to one good bowl location ever - in Phoenix.

Not worried about a fan draw at all.

 

[CascadeClone]

Yes but I am surprised that Texas fell all the way to 17 in the CFP rankings. Hopefully they can move back into Top 10 with wins over WVU and TTU. Of course, we also want OU to win their remaining Big 12 regular season games.

If ISU makes the conference championship game and wins out, we will be 9-3 and likely regain the #1 SOS in the nation (which we will lose after the KU game). The teams closest to us for SOS are LSU and a few other SEC teams, but they all still have a cupcake nonconference game left.

What this all means is that I would still give us a tiny shot at making the CFP. Lets say Alabama, Clemson, and ND remain undefeated. It's very conceivable that there will be no 1 loss P5 teams if that happens. And it's also conceivable that the 2 loss teams will look inferior when compared to our #1 SOS, 8 game win streak and 3 wins against Top 10 schools. I know this is just a pipe dream at this point, but I want to be on the record if things continue falling our way!

Love your optimism, but no way ISU gets picked with 3 loses and SOS will play no role. There will be a Clemson or LSU or someone with 3 loses that is a blue blood that will get picked first. They will justify it however they want - bad loss to TCU, split with OU, "eye test" or whatever. TV ratings and branding will trump SOS and it's not even a debate.

 

[CentexCyclone]

In theory, yes as the Sugar Bowl would get first pick of Big XII. Oklahoma not available (playoff) so they pick team #2. However, Texas could likely be more enticing from a Sugar Bowl perspective. Bigger name, more fans, TV ratings, etc.

I agree that Texas would probably go the Sugar Bowl in this scenario, but ISU would then be in line for the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio vs Pac 12....not a bad consolation prize.

 

[VeloClone]

Love your optimism, but no way ISU gets picked with 3 loses and SOS will play no role. There will be a Clemson or LSU or someone with 3 loses that is a blue blood that will get picked first. They will justify it however they want - bad loss to TCU, split with OU, "eye test" or whatever. TV ratings and branding will trump SOS and it's not even a debate.

Don't forget an ISU who plays in the Championship game will only have played 12 games. There is the old standby "no 13th data point" excuse that they used in 2014 to whack Baylor and TCU.

 

[Spanky]

Move the Incarnate Word game to Jerry World at 8:00 PM. ISU wins two games in the same day...how could the CFP committee possibly not take ISU?

Let's take it one step further and play them both at the same time, 22 vs 11 on offense and defense.
Now that win would be unprecedented.

 

[weR138]

Texas would take more fans to the sugar bowl this year than we would.

Their fan base is bigger, closer, and they are just as hungry as we are for a good bowl game.

I want to disagree with this so hard...but I can't...

 

[TedKumsher]

Does anyone know the contract with the Sugar Bowl?

Say we make it to the CCG. We lose the CCG to a one loss OU and they get selected for the playoffs.

Does ISU then fill the Big 12 spot in the Sugar Bowl?

I believe the Sugar Bowl is obligated to take the winner of the championship game unless they are in the playoffs, and then it is required to take the loser of the championship game (unless they also make the playoffs?).
This site:
https://www.dish.com/dig/sports/explaining-the-sugar-bowl-selection-process/
states it is the 2nd place team, BUT that was before the Big 12 added a conference championship game. I could not find any update since, so it seems likely to presume it would still be 2nd place, not the Sugar Bowl's choice.
Interestingly, the article notes the Sugar Bowl contract is different with the SEC, where the SEC will send the next highest ranked team in the CFP rankings (which still is not the Sugar Bowl's choice).

 

[Gunnerclone]

i kid but we are getting pretty sexy with all these job vacancies and CMC name getting thrown around.

I’ve had to hear the parade of Browns pundits fellating CMC today. Same question to every one at the end: “would you rather have CMC as Browns HC or OSU HC?”

 

[superiorcyclone]

I did this last year, and we're finally far enough into the season that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Texas: 77.5% (56.6% 1st, 20.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 59.2% (21.4% 1st, 37.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 32.6% (14.1% 1st, 18.5% 2nd)
TCU: 15.7% (3.7% 1st, 12.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 6.2% (1.6% 1st, 4.6% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.3% (1.7% 1st, 3.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 3.1% (0.9% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas and KSU: zippo

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:

Oklahoma/Texas: 42.0%
Texas/West Virginia: 19.2%
TCU/Texas: 10.6%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 9.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.1%
Oklahoma/TCU: 2.7%
Texas/Texas Tech: 2.4%
Iowa St./Texas: 1.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.6%
TCU/West Virginia: 1.6%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.2%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 98.8% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

As you might imagine, Iowa State's Championship Game odds go down the toilet if they lose to West Virginia. The odds if Iowa State wins (ignoring the other games that week):

Iowa St.: 12.0% (3.2% 1st, 8.8% 2nd)

And if the Cyclones lose:

Iowa St.: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record (assuming that game 12 is a gimme):

3-9: 0.0%
4-8: 1.0%
5-7: 7.0%
6-6: 23.6%
7-5: 36.9%
8-4: 25.5%
9-3: 6.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.

Update your odds as of November 1.

 

[CNECloneFan]

If we win out, including the Big12 Championship game over Oklahoma, the best we can possibly hope for is the Sugar Bowl.

 

[every_yard]

If we win out, including the Big12 Championship game over Oklahoma, the best we can possibly hope for is the Sugar Bowl.

That's also the worst we could get. In other words, we're guaranteed the Sugar Bowl.

 

[Beyerball]

If isu wins the big 12 they go to Sugar... if they lose title game and finish 2nd and OU makes playoffs then isu will go to Sugar..

And isu would bring 40k to that game without question..