Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[Dale]

Official update with Massey's new numbers:

Oklahoma: 74.4% (48.5% 1st, 25.9% 2nd)
Texas: 49.3% (25.1% 1st, 24.2% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 35.5% (8.9% 1st, 26.6% 2nd)
West Virginia: 34.4% (14.7% 1st, 19.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 6.1% (2.7% 1st, 3.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
everyone else: zippo

Most likely Championship Game match-ups:
Oklahoma/Texas: 32.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 24.1%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 16.8%
Texas/West Virginia: 10.4%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 5.2%
Iowa St./Texas: 4.9%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.9%
Texas/Texas Tech: 1.7%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.4%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 1.2%

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.1%
6-6: 2.1%
6-5 or 7-5: 16.9%
7-4 or 8-4: 51.4%
8-3 or 9-3: 29.5%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-5: 0.1%
7-4: 14.9%
8-3: 94.4%

 

[Cyclonepride]

I'd love to see what weird ass series of outcomes arrives at ISU vs TT in the championship. Both win out and everyone else goes to hell?

 

[JM4CY]

I'm so glad Kansas won last week.

 

[knowlesjam]

I'm so glad Kansas won last week.

KU will have our full attention now. Interesting to see if the percentages for the game have changed that much with KU's TCU win. Man, TCU crapped their pants fumbling at the 7 yd line on first down...but KU is good at forcing turnovers.

 

[mred]

I'd love to see what weird ass series of outcomes arrives at ISU vs TT in the championship. Both win out and everyone else goes to hell?

I'm highly interested in that 0.1% chance we go 6-5 and make it into the championship game.

EDIT: Make that a 0.1% x 16.9% chance, as the 0.1% is only the probability of the championship game if we were to go 6-5.

 

[Dale]

I'm highly interested in that 0.1% chance we go 6-5 and make it into the championship game.

EDIT: Make that a 0.1% x 16.9% chance, as the 0.1% is only the probability of the championship game if we were to go 6-5.

All the scenarios are kinda like this:

* OU wins out.
* ISU beats Texas, but loses two of the other three to finish 5-4 in conference.
* WV, Texas, and Tech all somehow finish 5-4 in conference as well.

So you end up with a four-way tie for second, but ISU wins the tiebreaker with a 3-0 round-robin record against the rest of the second--place teams.

Easy as pie.

 

[Dale]

I'd love to see what weird ass series of outcomes arrives at ISU vs TT in the championship. Both win out and everyone else goes to hell?

There are a few different cases, but this is the most common scenario:

* ISU and TT win out.
* OU wins out, other than losing to TT.
* Texas wins out other than ISU and TT and finishes alone in fourth.

So first place is a three-way tie among ISU, OU, and TT. Everyone goes 1-1 in the round-robin tiebreaker. Next tiebreaker is records against the next team down, and since ISU and TT beat Texas but OU lost, OU is eliminated. Since ISU beat TT head-to-head, ISU ends in first. For second, TT beat OU head-to-head, so it's ISU v. TT for the Big 12 championship.

 

[LincolnWay187]

If ISU wins the big 12 champ, a guy I know..wink wink...wins $850 bucks on a $33 bet. Please Coach Campbell help a bro out.

 

[Dale]

Various scenarios from the simulation:

Current ISU odds to make championship game: 35.6%

If ISU beats KU: 37.9%
If ISU loses to KU: 14.9%

If ISU beats KU and Texas: 82.3%
If ISU beats KU and loses to Texas: 5.1%
If ISU loses to KU and beats Texas: 35.5%
If ISU loses to KU and Texas: 0.0% (but at least one scenario in 100k has them making it)

Surprisingly, losing to KU and beating Texas would put ISU back almost exactly where they are today, while reversing the win and loss puts the Cyclones at a 1 in 20 chance. The Texas game is many, many times more important than Kansas.

Who we want to cheer for this week and the (minimal) amount they help ISU's odds:

TT over OU: +4%
Texas over WV: +1%
other games: nothin'

And for those into what-ifs, ISU's current odds if they had beaten TCU: 55.0%

 

[FinalFourCy]

Various scenarios from the simulation:

Current ISU odds to make championship game: 35.6%

If ISU beats KU: 37.9%
If ISU loses to KU: 14.9%

If ISU beats KU and Texas: 82.3%
If ISU beats KU and loses to Texas: 5.1%
If ISU loses to KU and beats Texas: 35.5%
If ISU loses to KU and Texas: 0.0% (but at least one scenario in 100k has them making it)

Surprisingly, losing to KU and beating Texas would put ISU back almost exactly where they are today, while reversing the win and loss puts the Cyclones at a 1 in 20 chance. The Texas game is many, many times more important than Kansas.

Who we want to cheer for this week and the (minimal) amount they help ISU's odds:

TT over OU: +4%
Texas over WV: +1%
other games: nothin'

And for those into what-ifs, ISU's current odds if they had beaten TCU: 55.0%

Is there a way to see what these would be had we not lost to TCU?

 

[DarkStar]

Does anyone know the contract with the Sugar Bowl?

Say we make it to the CCG. We lose the CCG to a one loss OU and they get selected for the playoffs.

Does ISU then fill the Big 12 spot in the Sugar Bowl?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Is there a way to see what these would be had we not lost to TCU?

I think that’s what he was saying at the end.

 

[cdface]

Is there a way to see what these would be had we not lost to TCU?

you can probably extrapolate from the last sentence of the previous post from yours.

 

[StLouisClone]

You called that one!

Yes but I am surprised that Texas fell all the way to 17 in the CFP rankings. Hopefully they can move back into Top 10 with wins over WVU and TTU. Of course, we also want OU to win their remaining Big 12 regular season games.

If ISU makes the conference championship game and wins out, we will be 9-3 and likely regain the #1 SOS in the nation (which we will lose after the KU game). The teams closest to us for SOS are LSU and a few other SEC teams, but they all still have a cupcake nonconference game left.

What this all means is that I would still give us a tiny shot at making the CFP. Lets say Alabama, Clemson, and ND remain undefeated. It's very conceivable that there will be no 1 loss P5 teams if that happens. And it's also conceivable that the 2 loss teams will look inferior when compared to our #1 SOS, 8 game win streak and 3 wins against Top 10 schools. I know this is just a pipe dream at this point, but I want to be on the record if things continue falling our way!

 

[Sigmapolis]

Sounds like the key to all this is beating Texas --

...or well, not losing another game from here on out.

That last game against KSU scares me, though. They might be 5-6 and it might be Snyder's last game in the Big 12 before a retirement and maybe a bowl.

That is an animal and a team that you know wants to go out with a W, plenty of motivation, and maybe some sympathetic officials. Keep me away from that.

That still sounds scary even in Ames.

 

[TykeClone]

Sounds like the key to all this is beating Texas --

...or well, not losing another game from here on out.

That last game against KSU scares me, though. They might be 5-6 and it might be Snyder's last game in the Big 12 before a retirement and maybe a bowl.

That is an animal and a team that you know wants to go out with a W, plenty of motivation, and maybe some sympathetic officials. Keep me away from that.

That still sounds scary even in Ames.

Snyder already collected his retirement gift last year in Manhattan.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Snyder already collected his retirement gift last year in Manhattan.

Kansas State is practically Lucy with the football at this point.

I will believe it will not happen again when I see it.

 

[mj4cy]

Yes but I am surprised that Texas fell all the way to 17 in the CFP rankings. Hopefully they can move back into Top 10 with wins over WVU and TTU. Of course, we also want OU to win their remaining Big 12 regular season games.

If ISU makes the conference championship game and wins out, we will be 9-3 and likely regain the #1 SOS in the nation (which we will lose after the KU game). The teams closest to us for SOS are LSU and a few other SEC teams, but they all still have a cupcake nonconference game left.

What this all means is that I would still give us a tiny shot at making the CFP. Lets say Alabama, Clemson, and ND remain undefeated. It's very conceivable that there will be no 1 loss P5 teams if that happens. And it's also conceivable that the 2 loss teams will look inferior when compared to our #1 SOS, 8 game win streak and 3 wins against Top 10 schools. I know this is just a pipe dream at this point, but I want to be on the record if things continue falling our way!

I just got high off what you're smoking from reading this.

 

[legi]

If ISU wins the big 12 champ, a guy I know..wink wink...wins $850 bucks on a $33 bet. Please Coach Campbell help a bro out.

I got something similar... $1050 on a $50 bet. Hope we both get to celebrate making money and ISU winning.

 

[huntt26]

Does anyone know the contract with the Sugar Bowl?

Say we make it to the CCG. We lose the CCG to a one loss OU and they get selected for the playoffs.

Does ISU then fill the Big 12 spot in the Sugar Bowl?

In theory, yes as the Sugar Bowl would get first pick of Big XII. Oklahoma not available (playoff) so they pick team #2. However, Texas could likely be more enticing from a Sugar Bowl perspective. Bigger name, more fans, TV ratings, etc.