MONDAY MUSINGS: Let's talk realistic expectations for next year

[ChrisMWilliams]

Please give me your feedback here, guys. Am I too, up down on the teams? Just right? This was a fun talk with my friends. Looking forward to your input.

https://cyclonefanatic.com/2018/04/monday-musings-lets-talk-realistic-expectations-for-next-year/

 

[jsb]

I agree with a lot of what you wrote.

But I’ll also say that your personality (from my vast personal knowledge based on not actually knowing you!) tends to go against the grain. I bet that if you were talking to a bunch of people who were down on Iowa State, you’d be thinking that they were overly down on the teams and would have written an article saying they’ll be better than everyone thinks.

 

[beentherebefore]

Seems about right.

 

[knowlesjam]

Is the increased skepticism simply due to being a long-time Cyclone fan and the long ingrained losing/disaster around the corner feeling? I'm always waiting for the other shoe to drop and having such high expectations is definitely new for me. Honestly, I have higher expectations for the football team...parts are in place and Campbell has shown two years in a row that his teams continue developing as the year goes on...this will build on that. As for basketball, I still have some minor issues with how Prohm develops a team...sometimes it seems like he lucks into a couple of decisions. The talent is there...can it develop?

Chris, I'd rather be talking about high expectations...sure beats the opposite.

 

[BCClone]

Football just a little light. I would go 8-5 season and lean 9-4 before 7-6.

Basketball, I think you went down when you should have stayed steady. We will have most of our cogs back and a couple that have practiced all year while sitting. I think they will gel fine.

 

[jsb]

Football just a little light. I would go 8-5 season and lean 9-4 before 7-6.

Basketball, I think you went down when you should have stayed steady. We will have most of our cogs back and a couple that have practiced all year while sitting. I think they will gel fine.

Basketball depends a lot on Lindell coming back. And the ability of everyone bring in Ames this summer.

 

[beentherebefore]

This could be the best football team since the Earle Bruce years (yes, I am that old to remember), so eight regular season wins sounds like a lot, but eight wins certainly seems realistic and 10 can happen if those close losses turn into wins.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

I agree with the O/U for football.

Basketball is the one i'm not sure on. I don't know that i'd say they will be comfortably in the NCAA tournament. They bring back/in some really good players, but it's still a massive jump to go from 13-18 to comfortably in the NCAA's.

 

[madguy30]

Football, I'm going with 6 or 7 wins. That's kind of a leveling off from what I thought was overachieving last year so it'd still be fine in year 3. Get 6 wins for sure and at least have a chance late and let things fall where they may.

I'm very curious to see what happens with basketball. This year's team was the definition of a rebuilding squad but boy were there some really ugly games in there that weren't just a personnel issue. If they're just in the tournament, that'd be fine.

 

[LincolnSwinger]

When extrapolating from the 2017 FB season, we should always build in some discount for an increase in lost fumbles. Zero for the year was an unrepeatable fluke. So I'm expecting similar results, with continued progress in talent/execution offset by a worse TO margin vs 2017. I know, pretty sophisticated analysis....

 

[harimad]

Football future looks great, but the unknowns are in the last places you want them: offensive line, and the center of the defense.

ISU had a good season last year with an offensive line that couldn't run block. While there were hardly any returning players last year, this year we've got almost the entire line back. I do worry that the architect of that line is now gone, to the NFL.

But the strength of last year's team, the defense, lost some of it's best players, and they were the Mike linebacker and the safety. The middle of your defense is where you need to be stoutest. We've got unknowns filling those positions, and that scares me.

Finally, last year's team did very well in close games, coming out on top more often than not. This "luck" factor can easily turn the opposite way. A team that should be better than last year, could be worse when the dust settles, if those close games go the other way.

My trend is upward for football. I think they move to 8 regular season wins, maybe 9. I'm on record as saying a 10 win season is possible. But my expectations are close to the 6-8 win range. I think missing a bowl game would be a disappointing season. That's all I'm willing to put forth right now for expectations.

Not going to say much about basketball. We have some highly touted players coming in, but mostly a bunch of unknowns. Wait and see if all I can do there. I cheer just as hard for them whether its 20 wins or 20 losses.

 

[cmjh10]

I expect 2 National Championships next year.

 

[mfelske]

I agree that improving run blocking would go a long way towards a good record in football. It's amazing we won 8 games last year with how the OL performed at times. I think 7.5 for the o/u is about right.

For basketball, you're bringing in two quality sit out transfers and one beast of a Freshman. It comes down to keeping everyone health and getting the team to gel. Oh... and Wigginton coming back. I think if all those things happen, then making the tournament and winning at least one game there is really likely.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

Football future looks great, but the unknowns are in the last places you want them: offensive line, and the center of the defense.

ISU had a good season last year with an offensive line that couldn't run block. While there were hardly any returning players last year, this year we've got almost the entire line back. I do worry that the architect of that line is now gone, to the NFL.

But the strength of last year's team, the defense, lost some of it's best players, and they were the Mike linebacker and the safety. The middle of your defense is where you need to be stoutest. We've got unknowns filling those positions, and that scares me.

Finally, last year's team did very well in close games, coming out on top more often than not. This "luck" factor can easily turn the opposite way. A team that should be better than last year, could be worse when the dust settles, if those close games go the other way.

My trend is upward for football. I think they move to 8 regular season wins, maybe 9. I'm on record as saying a 10 win season is possible. But my expectations are close to the 6-8 win range. I think missing a bowl game would be a disappointing season. That's all I'm willing to put forth right now for expectations.

Not going to say much about basketball. We have some highly touted players coming in, but mostly a bunch of unknowns. Wait and see if all I can do there. I cheer just as hard for them whether its 20 wins or 20 losses.

ISU does lose 26 starts on the OL from last year, which is concerning. The good news is there are 4 guys back that each started at least 6 games (two started 13, the other two 7 and 6 respectively). There will be great size and should be better depth along the OL this year.

As for the MLB comment, I'd argue that the DL is the most important aspect of a defense. A below average MLB can be masked by a dominant DL that takes up blockers, but a good MLB can get exposed by a bad DL (ISU will have a good DL). It also will help the Mike that the two OLB are pretty darn good.

Safety may be the biggest hole to fill (lost 3 starters). There are some promising youngsters there though and a few guys that got valuable time last season. Staff still may consider a grad transfer as well. The DL can help this group too by getting pressure on QB's.

 

[CloniesForLife]

The basketball team will obviously have talent but it is going to be a big leap for them to get into the NCAA next year from where they were this year. For that reason I would say I am more optimistic about football. I think there is less of a jump there with a lot of good returning talent.

 

[DSMCy]

I expect 2 National Championships next year.

I'll wait to analyze the guys in the Cap City League before I predict a basketball national championship.

 

[jsb]

Football future looks great, but the unknowns are in the last places you want them: offensive line, and the center of the defense.

ISU had a good season last year with an offensive line that couldn't run block. While there were hardly any returning players last year, this year we've got almost the entire line back. I do worry that the architect of that line is now gone, to the NFL.

But the strength of last year's team, the defense, lost some of it's best players, and they were the Mike linebacker and the safety. The middle of your defense is where you need to be stoutest. We've got unknowns filling those positions, and that scares me.

Finally, last year's team did very well in close games, coming out on top more often than not. This "luck" factor can easily turn the opposite way. A team that should be better than last year, could be worse when the dust settles, if those close games go the other way.

My trend is upward for football. I think they move to 8 regular season wins, maybe 9. I'm on record as saying a 10 win season is possible. But my expectations are close to the 6-8 win range. I think missing a bowl game would be a disappointing season. That's all I'm willing to put forth right now for expectations.

Not going to say much about basketball. We have some highly touted players coming in, but mostly a bunch of unknowns. Wait and see if all I can do there. I cheer just as hard for them whether its 20 wins or 20 losses.

I agree the luck factor could change. Especially with fumbles.

But the close games when both ways last year. We lost close ones against Iowa, West Virginia, and were legit robbed against Kansas State.

 

[CycloneErik]

It all sounds fair to me.
7-8 football wins is still a great year here, and they'll likely get that.
The tournament needs to happen, and I think they'll do that.

 

[brokenloginagain]

"realistic expectations" - no two words typically generate more discussion in cyclone sports!

I'd say MBB success comes down to 5 things:
1. Babb's health
2. LW's ability to improve/play as a PG
3. Can Jacobson make 3's?
4. Can we dramatically improve team defense?
5. Will players accept the available minutes.

The good tourney teams play great team D, have multiple athletic guards, and have a big guy that can shoot.

 

[DSMCy]

The basketball team will obviously have talent but it is going to be a big leap for them to get into the NCAA next year from where they were this year. For that reason I would say I am more optimistic about football. I think there is less of a jump there with a lot of good returning talent.

I don't see it being too big of a jump in basketball when you take a more micro look at the team.
I'd argue this was a borderline bubble team in late January. (Then they finish 1-9, yuck)

They proved they could compete with/beat the top Big 12 teams, including future sweet 16 teams.
Injuries and inexperience contributed to some bad losses and inability to finish games out.