Investing: Beating the S&P 500

[CloneGuy8]

Any of you investors try to do this? I'm putting a good chunk in the S&P through my 401k, so I kind of want to do some outside investing and look at some that have beat it regularly. Listening to Dave Ramsey he talks about doing mutual funds with growth, growth and income, aggressive growth, and international. I'm just starting some research on some different funds. This is one I'm looking into:
https://www.parnassus.com/parnassus-mutual-funds/endeavor/investor-shares/performance

Any others you like that have outperformed the S&P?

 

[Cyched]

Canned goods and shotguns

 

[83cy]

At this point, dow at ~26,000 consider going in light to start, dollar cost averaging going forward i.e. (putting in a set monthly amount every month). This market cannot keep going at this pace. Bubble alert. I'm not selling but I'm not buying right now.

 

[CascadeClone]

For me, it's more about diversifying to beat the SP500, as opposed to just trying to beat it period.

So diversify into some higher risk assets: international stocks, small cap value stocks, and REITS. Maybe some junk bonds too. Those will all be pretty volatile, but should provide good returns (higher than SP500) over long periods. Just pick one good one in each category based on performance, manager tenure, and low fees.

I've done that, and over 20+ years I have beat the SP500 by a point. That doesn't seem like much, but I've done it with less volatility.

 

[WIB]

You can try to beat it, but it’s unlikely that over a long period of time you’d be able to do much better. You could put all your money into an SP500 spyder like SPY and do pretty well.

 

[Gunnerclone]

At this point, dow at ~26,000 consider going in light to start, dollar cost averaging going forward i.e. (putting in a set monthly amount every month). This market cannot keep going at this pace. Bubble alert. I'm not selling but I'm not buying right now.

I don’t think there are really any bubbles out there right now except for cryptocurrencies. There will undoubtedly be a correction coming this year at some point but it’s probably going to be like a 5-10% correction. The real danger right now is domestic political factors in terms of something that could cause real volatility and big drops.

 

[WIB]

I don’t think there are really any bubbles out there right now except for cryptocurrencies. There will undoubtedly be a correction coming this year at some point but it’s probably going to be like a 5-10% correction. The real danger right now is domestic political factors in terms of something that could cause real volatility and big drops.

Bingo. If some news were to come out about Trump it could drop significantly.

 

[agardini]

I don’t think there are really any bubbles out there right now except for cryptocurrencies. There will undoubtedly be a correction coming this year at some point but it’s probably going to be like a 5-10% correction. The real danger right now is domestic political factors in terms of something that could cause real volatility and big drops.

There's a bubble. Stocks are up like 30-40% in the last year. Look at the Dow, it's being driven nearly exclusively by Boeing who is up over 100% in the past year. Stocks are way overvalued right now. A 15-20% correction would put them more inline to where they should be. If something happens to Boeing and their stock drops, there goes the Dow.

 

[SoapyCy]

There's a bubble. Stocks are up like 30-40% in the last year. Look at the Dow, it's being driven nearly exclusively by Boeing who is up over 100% in the past year. Stocks are way overvalued right now. A 15-20% correction would put them more inline to where they should be. If something happens to Boeing and their stock drops, there goes the Dow.

One stock does not the entire market make. The Dow is a notorious bad index that is only used because it has history.

 

[Gunnerclone]

There's a bubble. Stocks are up like 30-40% in the last year. Look at the Dow, it's being driven nearly exclusively by Boeing who is up over 100% in the past year. Stocks are way overvalued right now. A 15-20% correction would put them more inline to where they should be. If something happens to Boeing and their stock drops, there goes the Dow.

That’s not what a bubble is.

 

[agardini]

That’s not what a bubble is.

Why are stocks up so much over the last year then? All on speculation with no basis on the price being that high.

One stock does not the entire market make. The Dow is a notorious bad index that is only used because it has history.

One stock does not make an entire market, correct. But Boeing is making the Dow index this past year.

 

[Rabbuk]

Why are stocks up so much over the last year then? All on speculation with no basis on the price being that high.



One stock does not make an entire market, correct. But Boeing is making the Dow index this past year.

Mainly because companies are making money hand over fist and buying back a ton of their own stocks.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Why are stocks up so much over the last year then? All on speculation with no basis on the price being that high.



One stock does not make an entire market, correct. But Boeing is making the Dow index this past year.

Because companies are making record profits quarter after quarter, a low interest rate environment suitable for borrowing and expansion , sustainable economic growth over a record number of years coming off a huge downturn (caused by an ACTUAL bubble), record unemployment and for the past year an expected major corporate tax cut which has now turned in to a reality. That’s not speculative that’s happening and has been happening.

I think that institutional investors and the vast majority of individual investors are skeptical enough of cryptocurrencies that it will be enough to keep them from creeping in to the mainstream and thus avoid that potential bubble akin to the tech bubble.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Price to earnings does a bubble make.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

Note that this leaves off in May 2017, and the DOW has advanced 20% from that time.

 

[BCClone]

One year of 20-30% return is not a cause for alarm. Especially when the market hasn't really came back from the recession we had. The average gain has been way behind over the last decade. We were in a recovery that wasn't much of a recovery and earnings for companies were light compared to years past. We may very well see a correction, but it may also be the shackles have been knocked off and the businesses have started stretching their legs and we may go back to typical 8-10% returns that we used to see a general basis.

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

I love these threads.

We should start a CF investment club.

 

[ArgentCy]

I'm not sure about that. I have been in a local investment club, they claim the oldest West of the Mississppi, but we are down to like 3 members and one doesn't live here anymore. Can't get anyone to join. I think we should just drop the actual pooling of money and just get together informally.

What do people think, right now the buy in is set at $2,000 plus they "require" a $100 / month investment. Supposedly this was to make sure people were interested and get them to show up. Obviously not working. Is this too much? Or might other reasons be keeping people away?

 

[ArgentCy]

I know this brings some animosity in the cave but if anyone is interested it seems that a short-term top in January is probable. It seems if we get a January high the opposite and sharp pull back into March is possible.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...les/time-is-more-than-money-it-is-everything/

Back on November 30th, 2017, I explained on the private blog: “We must respect that exceeding the November high now in December on a sustained basis, points to a January high. If we pull back, then January will be a low and then watch out for a sharp rally into March.”

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

I'm not sure about that. I have been in a local investment club, they claim the oldest West of the Mississppi, but we are down to like 3 members and one doesn't live here anymore. Can't get anyone to join. I think we should just drop the actual pooling of money and just get together informally.

What do people think, right now the buy in is set at $2,000 plus they "require" a $100 / month investment. Supposedly this was to make sure people were interested and get them to show up. Obviously not working. Is this too much? Or might other reasons be keeping people away?

Nah I was thinking we more just sit around, sip on bourbon and talk about the markets.

 

[canker2323]

Price to earnings does a bubble make.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

Note that this leaves off in May 2017, and the DOW has advanced 20% from that time.

It is high-ish but I don't think I'd call it a bubble. We will probably see a correction this year and unless a war breaks out or something I wouldn't expect a crash.

Bonds have been such a ****** investment for years that more money has been going into the equities market inflating prices some.