Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

That’s impossible!?! I was told espn and Fox were in cahoots making under the table deals!

Instead of Fox, ESPN instead goes with their 3rd Venu partner and the TNT games will be produced by ESPN with ESPN announcers. So it is still a BS deal to the financial detriment of CFB after ESPN was the only CFP bidder and two months after Fox stated they were going all in on CFP bidding. Very weird that Fox doesn't even try to bid on the CFP with their regular season inventory and existing ability to promote the CFP during the regular season like NFL and NBA TV partners do.

As CW correctly pointed out on a recent pod, the CFP boys have got their heads up their asses.

 

[2speedy1]

You did not say it was an estimate right here. This entire time all the articles were talking about media payouts, NOT media and playoff payouts. You add those in to hope to get up to the $70 million number, which no one was talking about.

The last report I saw was the B1G paid out an average of 58.8M or "around 60M", not the "More than 60M" the Athletic rag said.

The big 12 is currently getting mid 40s, including reductions for adding the first 4 teams, prior to new contract. Prior to any increases in the new contract and playoff. We will not be getting 40-50M in 2030, ours will significantly increase too. So I mean if you want to use todays payouts for us and theirs in 7 years, I guess you can say they "may" get double, not more than double. But for me I would rather compare what we may be getting at that time too. But as I said, things change constantly so thinking we have any idea what things will be in 2030 is crazy.

Personally I believe the Big 12 payouts will be in the neighborhood of 70M by that time, but that is just a guess looking at all things. If you look at all things you can see the possibility of that number being even higher than that, especially when you include all the things that are included in that B1G number people speculate.

What are you talking about? Can you even read what you bolded.

So you are claiming the 50M number you believe is only the media payout? Well hell good for you if you think that but the media number is 31.7M. No one in there right mind thinks it is 50M. Those articles claims have been estimates or total distribution, not just media. I am just confused at this point what you are even arguing. I guess point to one of those articles that says we are going to get 50m in just media distribution, because they are not they are including everything, which at the time of those articles the playoff contract was 6.5M per year lower.

At this point I dont even know what you are trying to say. You are saying my quote was not my estimate, I dont know what you think it means when I say "personally, I believe" and "In the Neighborhood of" and "but that is just a guess" Means. It sure in hell does not mean that those numbers are more than my personal estimate.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Oh wow, gross....... that said, I'll watch it.

Same probably, zero competition in that slot lol

 

[CyCrazy]

At this point you have know idea what you are talking about Speedy. But carry on.

 

[ClubCy]

What are you talking about? Can you even read what you bolded.

So you are claiming the 50M number you believe is only the media payout? Well hell good for you if you think that but the media number is 31.7M. No one in there right mind thinks it is 50M. Those articles claims have been estimates or total distribution, not just media. I am just confused at this point what you are even arguing. I guess point to one of those articles that says we are going to get 50m in just media distribution, because they are not they are including everything, which at the time of those articles the playoff contract was 6.5M per year lower.

At this point I dont even know what you are trying to say. You are saying my quote was not my estimate, I dont know what you think it means when I say "personally, I believe" and "In the Neighborhood of" and "but that is just a guess" Means. It sure in hell does not mean that those numbers are more than my personal estimate.

I’m not gonna lie, I don’t know what either of you are trying to argue at this point. It’s been entertaining though.

 

[RustShack]

The Big12 just needs to have some teams win playoff games. Show the Big12 belongs on the same field as the SEC/B1G. Get eyes on our conference.

 

[2speedy1]

I’m not gonna lie, I don’t know what either of you are trying to argue at this point. It’s been entertaining though.

I dont think I know what we are arguing at this point either.....

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

What are you talking about? Can you even read what you bolded.

So you are claiming the 50M number you believe is only the media payout? Well hell good for you if you think that but the media number is 31.7M. No one in there right mind thinks it is 50M. Those articles claims have been estimates or total distribution, not just media. I am just confused at this point what you are even arguing. I guess point to one of those articles that says we are going to get 50m in just media distribution, because they are not they are including everything, which at the time of those articles the playoff contract was 6.5M per year lower.

At this point I dont even know what you are trying to say. You are saying my quote was not my estimate, I dont know what you think it means when I say "personally, I believe" and "In the Neighborhood of" and "but that is just a guess" Means. It sure in hell does not mean that those numbers are more than my personal estimate.

You said you were done with this and yet you are still here. I have done my job.

 

[isucy86]

Instead of Fox, ESPN instead goes with their 3rd Venu partner and the TNT games will be produced by ESPN with ESPN announcers. So it is still a BS deal to the financial detriment of CFB after ESPN was the only CFP bidder and two months after Fox stated they were going all in on CFP bidding. Very weird that Fox doesn't even try to bid on the CFP with their regular season inventory and existing ability to promote the CFP during the regular season like NFL and NBA TV partners do.

As CW correctly pointed out on a recent pod, the CFP boys have got their heads up their asses.

So just because FOX says they are "all in" publicly, doesn't mean they are. Could have just been a smokescreen to push ESPN or other interested parties to make a strong bid for the CFP. Meanwhile FOX is leveraging its NFL relationship to show NFL games opposite ESPN/TNT's CFP games. Sounds like a smart business decision by FOX to me. Will be curious how much or if FOX paid to televise those additional Saturday time slots.

And all the while the Venu Partnership has all its bases covered with ESPN, TNT and FOX all bringing viewers to the platform on a cold December Saturday. Sounds like a win, win, win for the Venu partnership!

Personally, not sure how competing businesses can go together on a platform and not face some government regulation/inquiry. This things moving fast- announced January & launch August.

 

[cykadelic2]

So just because FOX says they are "all in" publicly, doesn't mean they are. Could have just been a smokescreen to push ESPN or other interested parties to make a strong bid for the CFP. Meanwhile FOX is leveraging its NFL relationship to show NFL games opposite ESPN/TNT's CFP games. Sounds like a smart business decision by FOX to me. Will be curious how much or if FOX paid to televise those additional Saturday time slots.

And all the while the Venu Partnership has all its bases covered with ESPN, TNT and FOX all bringing viewers to the platform on a cold December Saturday. Sounds like a win, win, win for the Venu partnership!

Personally, not sure how competing businesses can go together on a platform and not face some government regulation/inquiry. This things moving fast- announced January & launch August.

Beyond the first round, there are no CFP games on Saturdays if NYE and NYD don't fall on a Saturday so the Saturday conflict excuse wasn't sufficient rationale for Fox to not even bid. Fox could have moved those Saturday games to FS1 or FX or sublicensed them as well to TNT.

The fact that there was a sublicense option even made available by the CFP for ESPN was absurd. No other premium sports package has type of sublicensing option and was another factor for the lowball bid and screw job for the P4 schools. But as you point out, it's great for Venu. Venu has a premium sports package on the relative cheap and even though Fox didn't bid, they reap the benefits from Venu by not doing so and ESPN/Fox continue to successfully keep Amazon/Apple out of the CFB space (and P4 schools lose millions in the process).

 

[isu81]

Sorry, I haven't posted this in a week:

Been saying it for years... all football programs not in the SEC or Big 10 need to band together, demand 100% equal revenue sharing, or threaten to break away.

If they call the bluff... so be it. A seperate league is where this eventually ends up anyway.

The new CFP contract will pay the Big12 $12M per school, more than double the current payout at $5.5M. Then Yormark added a loophole in that if we have more expansion we qualify for more $. No one knows if or what that might be, but saying it wont happen by 2030 is wishful thinking.

So all the estimates for the Big 12 from last year included the 5.5M playoff money not the 12M+.

Again if we go by the last payout number officially released NOT ESTIMATED, which was $44M.
Then you add the $9M increase in the new contract, puts us at $53M. Then add the published increase of 6.5M, for the playoff. That puts us at $59.5M at minimum to start the contract, not including other increases.

By my estimate at the start of the contract we will be about 500K away from being closer to 70M than 50M at the end of the contract in 2031 as I predicted.

You are the one digging a hole believing we wont increase past our current payout in 7 years, something that has never happened since this system began. You for some reason dont understand that all those media sources you quote are paid to push the B1G and SEC superiority. And quotes from ADs are before some of the final numbers were decided or are because most ADs are not going to overestimate rather under estimate so when it comes in higher they look better and people are happier. Can you imagine if Pollard said we would get 70M and it came in at 60M, people would be pissed. But saying it is around 50M if it comes in at 60M people will be happy.

The reporters pushing the B1G and SEC superiority want to make the gap as big as possible, they want to make us look subpar. This has been the way it has been for years but for some reason you take what these people say as gospel. I dont. I just do math from what is published and dont rely on estimates or projections.

Again NONE of your links proved anything, Most if not all are outdated with old info and numbers. You might as well quote the Navigate estimate that is wildly inaccurate, missing actual numbers. And NONE of them talk about what the B12 payout will be in 2031, only what it will be when the new contract starts with the new members. But like I said you believe what you want I will believe what I want and move on.

Have a nice day.

Getting in on the tail end of this, but you really believe there won't be a dilutive effect from trading out 2 schools that are 2 of the biggest brands in CFB to 8 schools, none of which are in the top 30 brands in CFB? At best the pie grows a little, but split 6 more ways.

 

[2speedy1]

Getting in on the tail end of this, but you really believe there won't be a dilutive effect from trading out 2 schools that are 2 of the biggest brands in CFB to 8 schools, none of which are in the top 30 brands in CFB? At best the pie grows a little, but split 6 more ways.

Well, the numbers are all out there. The media contract has been reported, that number is actual. The playoff contract has been published that number is actual, which possibility of going higher. So the increases from our current payout are documented, and those will bring us to near $60M. The speculated number is the increase of the other things, that average an increase of about 2M per year. Those things include all kinds of things then there is also the NCAA Womens and other sports tourney payouts, that starts this fall, and is triple the current amount.

I have no doubt there is a dilutive effect but the numbers I quoted have been released, outside the estimated 2M yearly increase which I took the historical average of the last contract to come up with that number, which could be more could be less, but expecting us to go down below what we are currently getting makes no sense, when those contractual increases are documented.

Again, the entire argument seems to be moot at this point because I dont even know what @SEIOWA CLONE is trying to argue anymore not only did he move the goal post at every turn, he seems to believe we will be getting $50M from our media contract alone, which is wrong, but also seems to believe there are no other things that add to the total distribution, and that the number his year old articles were quoting was total distribution not media only, but those are without certain increases that have been agreed upon since his articles.

At this point I have figured out hes a troll so, Im done arguing with him. He doesnt have a clue as to what the difference is between Media payout and total payout is apparently, yet argues that he does.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Instead of Fox, ESPN instead goes with their 3rd Venu partner and the TNT games will be produced by ESPN with ESPN announcers. So it is still a BS deal to the financial detriment of CFB after ESPN was the only CFP bidder and two months after Fox stated they were going all in on CFP bidding. Very weird that Fox doesn't even try to bid on the CFP with their regular season inventory and existing ability to promote the CFP during the regular season like NFL and NBA TV partners do.

As CW correctly pointed out on a recent pod, the CFP boys have got their heads up their asses.

Hard to bid on them when ESPN has the rights and has absolutely no obligation to take your bid...

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Well, the numbers are all out there. The media contract has been reported, that number is actual. The playoff contract has been published that number is actual, which possibility of going higher. So the increases from our current payout are documented, and those will bring us to near $60M. The speculated number is the increase of the other things, that average an increase of about 2M per year. Those things include all kinds of things then there is also the NCAA Womens and other sports tourney payouts, that starts this fall, and is triple the current amount.

I have no doubt there is a dilutive effect but the numbers I quoted have been released, outside the estimated 2M yearly increase which I took the historical average of the last contract to come up with that number, which could be more could be less, but expecting us to go down below what we are currently getting makes no sense, when those contractual increases are documented.

Again, the entire argument seems to be moot at this point because I dont even know what @SEIOWA CLONE is trying to argue anymore not only did he move the goal post at every turn, he seems to believe we will be getting $50M from our media contract alone, which is wrong, but also seems to believe there are no other things that add to the total distribution, and that the number his year old articles were quoting was total distribution not media only, but those are without certain increases that have been agreed upon since his articles.

At this point I have figured out hes a troll so, Im done arguing with him. He doesnt have a clue as to what the difference is between Media payout and total payout is apparently, yet argues that he does.

My point all along is that your numbers are wrong, you keep talking about TOTAL media dollars while the rest of us are just talking about the amount of money that the conference schools get from the TV contract, not playoff games and the rest of it. According to this data, from 22/23 ISU brought in roughly $46.6 million from all media sources, nowhere close to the $60 million you keep saying. Even with your $2 million dollar increase per year and the new TV contract, we are nowhere near $60 million from the media, it's all there in the numbers, but for some reason you say they are wrong and outdated.

Sportico’s Intercollegiate Finance Database

Sportico is maintaining an interactive, real-time database that tracks the official balance sheets of public FBS university athletic departments.

www.sportico.com

 

[2speedy1]

My point all along is that your numbers are wrong, you keep talking about TOTAL media dollars while the rest of us are just talking about the amount of money that the conference schools get from the TV contract, not playoff games and the rest of it. According to this data, from 22/23 ISU brought in roughly $46.6 million from all media sources, nowhere close to the $60 million you keep saying. Even with your $2 million dollar increase per year and the new TV contract, we are nowhere near $60 million from the media, it's all there in the numbers, but for some reason you say they are wrong and outdated.

Sportico’s Intercollegiate Finance Database

Sportico is maintaining an interactive, real-time database that tracks the official balance sheets of public FBS university athletic departments.

www.sportico.com

You do understand we have a couple new contracts coming up. with significant increases.

Lets go through this 1 more time, then Im done. So, using the number you just quoted.

46.6M old contracts.

New contract goes from 22M per team in current contract (in that 46.6M you quote) to....31.7M. 31.7 - 22 = 9.7M increase per team per year. (added to the 46.6M you quote)

46.6 + 9.7 = 56.3 after DOCUMENTED new contract increase for media deal.

New CFP contract goes up to AT LEAST 12M up from 5.5M per team in the current contract (included in your 46.6 number). 12 - 5.5 = 6.5M increase per year per team (added to the 46.6M you quote).

56.3 + 6.5 = 62.8M.

$62.8M total distribution!!! After just adding in the new media and CFP contract increases, per team.

And as I said the WBB and other sport NCAA contract is not figured into that, which starts this fall, and is 3 times the old number. No other increases from any advertising, sponsorships, and other things that go into the TOTAL DISTRIBUTION are included in new number just the documented ones, so those will add as well if we get increases.

46.6 before increases that are DOCUMENTED as shown above 62.8M after, the other 2M in increases per year is just MY SPECULATION, when looking at the average increase per year from other sources outside the media deal. 2M per year has been about the average, over 6 years would be 12M, but to be conservative lest say those only add up to 10M, better yet only 8M over those 6 years (significantly lower than the historical average, just to be conservative, that still puts our TOTAL DISTRIBUTION above 70M, at the end of our new contract.

If you cant understand that, if you cant see where I am getting those numbers, I dont know what to tell you, if you want me to continue to rehash the same damn thing over and over too bad, any more I will just block you.

 

[cykadelic2]

Hard to bid on them when ESPN has the rights and has absolutely no obligation to take your bid...

Agree but I was referencing Fox's bidding behavior (or lack thereof) on the primary package direct from the CFP, not on the sublicensing piece from ESPN.

That said, once it was disclosed that ESPN did have the sublicensing option, I was anticipating that Fox would reach a deal on the cheap with their Venu partner (ESPN) to pick up some games. Instead, ESPN turned to TNT and not surprisingly, will produce the TNT games and use ESPN broadcasters for them.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Agree but I was referencing Fox's bidding behavior (or lack thereof) on the primary package direct from the CFP, not on the sublicensing piece from ESPN.

That said, once it was disclosed that ESPN did have the sublicensing option, I was anticipating that Fox would reach a deal on the cheap with their Venu partner (ESPN) to pick up some games. Instead, ESPN turned to TNT and not surprisingly, will produce the TNT games and use ESPN broadcasters for them.

I'm not sure that the CFP even gave them a chance. I don't think that process was ever really open. ESPN was going to get it and it didn't matter how that had to happen.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

You do understand we have a couple new contracts coming up. with significant increases.

Lets go through this 1 more time, then Im done. So, using the number you just quoted.

46.6M old contracts.

New contract goes from 22M per team in current contract (in that 46.6M you quote) to....31.7M. 31.7 - 22 = 9.7M increase per team per year. (added to the 46.6M you quote)

46.6 + 9.7 = 56.3 after DOCUMENTED new contract increase for media deal.

New CFP contract goes up to AT LEAST 12M up from 5.5M per team in the current contract (included in your 46.6 number). 12 - 5.5 = 6.5M increase per year per team (added to the 46.6M you quote).

56.3 + 6.5 = 62.8M.

$62.8M total distribution!!! After just adding in the new media and CFP contract increases, per team.

And as I said the WBB and other sport NCAA contract is not figured into that, which starts this fall, and is 3 times the old number. No other increases from any advertising, sponsorships, and other things that go into the TOTAL DISTRIBUTION are included in new number just the documented ones, so those will add as well if we get increases.

46.6 before increases that are DOCUMENTED as shown above 62.8M after, the other 2M in increases per year is just MY SPECULATION, when looking at the average increase per year from other sources outside the media deal. 2M per year has been about the average, over 6 years would be 12M, but to be conservative lest say those only add up to 10M, better yet only 8M over those 6 years (significantly lower than the historical average, just to be conservative, that still puts our TOTAL DISTRIBUTION above 70M, at the end of our new contract.

If you cant understand that, if you cant see where I am getting those numbers, I dont know what to tell you, if you want me to continue to rehash the same damn thing over and over too bad, any more I will just block you.

Again, you numbers are WRONG. show me one link that says we will be at $62.8 million by when? At the end of the deal. Where is what ESPN said.


The new deal will mark an uptick in the Big 12's overall distribution number, which currently stands at $42.6 million per school. That number is subject to myriad variables such as NCAA tournament units, bowl revenue and new College Football Playoff revenue.

It's safe to project the overall per-school revenue increasing to nearly $50 million starting in 2025-26. That number could well be much bigger depending on money the 12-team College Football Playoff delivers.

So their number and my number of $42.6 and mine of $46 million is in the ballpark, nowhere near the $53 million figure you keep throwing out there as proof. You keep talking about extra money from the playoff, but every report out there says the same thing, "the B10 and SEC are going to get a majority of the teams into the playoff." and therefore will be getting a majority of this new money. The ACC has Clemson and FSU, actual names in the sport, we have whom, Utah, TCU and OSU? Which do you think the networks and some committee is going to choose of a 2nd team from a conference?

Unless the B12 is putting 3 and 4 teams in the playoff yearly, we are never going to approach the numbers you are taking about.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ears-six-year-228b-tv-extension-deal-espn-fox

 

[CrossCyed]

I do wonder if the Big 12 will try to sublicense content because of the expansion of inventory. There was that article about the CW trying to air ESPN+ content. Maybe an ACC game, a Pac-2 game and a Big 12 game? Or with TNT getting into college football, one can imagine they might look for some regular season content as well.

 

[2speedy1]

Again, you numbers are WRONG. show me one link that says we will be at $62.8 million by when? At the end of the deal. Where is what ESPN said.


The new deal will mark an uptick in the Big 12's overall distribution number, which currently stands at $42.6 million per school. That number is subject to myriad variables such as NCAA tournament units, bowl revenue and new College Football Playoff revenue.

It's safe to project the overall per-school revenue increasing to nearly $50 million starting in 2025-26. That number could well be much bigger depending on money the 12-team College Football Playoff delivers.

So their number and my number of $42.6 and mine of $46 million is in the ballpark, nowhere near the $53 million figure you keep throwing out there as proof. You keep talking about extra money from the playoff, but every report out there says the same thing, "the B10 and SEC are going to get a majority of the teams into the playoff." and therefore will be getting a majority of this new money. The ACC has Clemson and FSU, actual names in the sport, we have whom, Utah, TCU and OSU? Which do you think the networks and some committee is going to choose of a 2nd team from a conference?

Unless the B12 is putting 3 and 4 teams in the playoff yearly, we are never going to approach the numbers you are taking about.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ears-six-year-228b-tv-extension-deal-espn-fox

Math is hard for some, I get it.

On to the Ignore list you go.