Stats thru 9 games - Thomas/Cooke productivity

[8bitnes]

I've been digging into the season stats a little bit in an effort to see how much we'd feel the impact of Naz's redshirt. Here's what I've looked at:

Possessions used = (field goal attempts + turnovers) and all free throws removed from points & possessions
Points per possession used
1. Cooke = 1.098
2. McKay = 1.080
3. Thomas = 1.029
4. Morris = 1.026
5. Niang = 1.023
6. Mitrou-Long = 0.865
7. Nader = 0.861
8. JA/SC/BE/SN = 0.786

% of possessions used
1. Niang = 18.6%
2. Morris = 16.7%
3. McKay = 16.3%
4. Nader = 15.5%
5. Mitrou-Long = 15.0%
6. Thomas = 10.1%
7. Cooke = 5.9%
8. JA/SC/BE/SN = 2.0%

With Naz's absence, certainly possessions used will increase for Thomas and Cooke. Those possessions may be better utilized at this point as both are more efficient with the ball this season than he has been.

Additionally, here are a few other stats:
Assists (per 40min) followed by A/TO ratio
1. Morris = 8.99 5.07
2. Niang = 4.60 1.94
3. Cooke = 3.58 1.50
4. Thomas = 2.91 1.89
5. Mitrou-Long = 2.37 0.88
6. Nader = 2.18 0.62
7. McKay = 1.12 0.50
8. JA/SC/BE/SN = 0.00 0.00

Steals (per 40min)
1. Morris = 2.28
2. Nader = 2.18
3. Cooke = 1.79
4. Thomas = 1.54
5. JA/SC/BE/SN = 1.51
6. Niang = 1.11
7. McKay = 0.98
8. Mitrou-Long = 0.79

Defensive Rebounds (per 40min)
1. McKay = 8.70
2. Niang = 7.11
3. Thomas = 6.67
4. Nader = 6.39
5. JA/SC/BE/SN = 5.28
6. Morris = 3.80
7. Cooke = 3.58
8. Mitrou-Long = 3.00

 

[joefrog]

Great stuff! Thanks for posting, and please continue to do updates.

 

[cdface]

let's just hope production scales linearly!

 

[8bitnes]

let's just hope production scales linearly!

Unfortunately, fatigue is certain to have an impact.

 

[Jacktronic]

let's just hope production scales linearly!

Why stop there? Think big, hope for exponential.

 

[SWCy13]

Unfortunately, fatigue is certain to have an impact.

Maybe with Hallice, given his hip surgery. But Matty Ice is in phenomenal shape, he didn't look winded at all during his extensive minutes against Iowa. Obviously there may be some overall wear and tear over the course of the year, but hopefully Burton will be able to offset some of that.

 

[cyclonespiker33]

I opened this expecting some lame look at stats. Very pleasantly surprised I was wrong.

 

[RedDog]

Thanks for that.

 

[Jacktronic]

I opened this expecting some lame look at stats. Very pleasantly surprised I was wrong.

8bitnes seems like a pretty smart guy. He and I had a disagreement about Naz's hips, but I was impressed by his posts. I agree, a good stats investigation.

 

[8bitnes]

Great stuff! Thanks for posting, and please continue to do updates.

Here is the same statistical measurements using last year's team.

Possessions used = (field goal attempts + turnovers) and all free throws removed from points & possessions
Points per possession used
1. Long = 1.013 (Nice to see Naz at the top)
2. Hogue = 0.996
3. Morris = 0.994
4. McKay = 0.990
5. Edozie = 0.914
6. BDJ = 0.886
7. Thomas = 0.868
8. Niang = 0.845
9. Nader = 0.739
10. SDW/GT/CC/KJ/DS = 0.667


% of possessions used
1. Niang = 21.2%
2. Morris = 14.7%
3. Long = 12.8%
4. BDJ = 12.7%
5. Hogue = 11.2%
6. Nader = 8.8%
7. McKay = 8.4% (skewed due to missing non-conf)
8. Thomas = 6.8%
9. SDW/GT/CC/KJ/DS = 1.9%
10. Edozie = 1.5%


Assists (per 40min) followed by A/TO ratio
1. Morris = 6.11 4.63
2. Niang = 4.48 1.29
3. BDJ = 3.68 1.43
4. Long = 2.91 1.45
5. SDW/GT/CC/KJ/DS = 2.71 1.50
6. Thomas = 1.80 1.47
7. Nader = 1.76 0.62
8. Hogue = 1.70 0.72
9. Edozie = 1.62 0.86
10. McKay = 0.82 0.47


Steals (per 40min)
1. Morris = 2.22
2. BDJ = 1.84
3. SDW/GT/CC/KJ/DS = 1.58
4. Long = 1.16
5. McKay = 1.12
6. Hogue = 1.03
7. Nader = 0.92
8. Thomas = 0.90
9. Edozie = 0.81
10. Niang = 0.65


Defensive Rebounds (per 40min)
1. McKay = 7.19
2. BDJ = 6.11
3. Niang = 5.70
4. Nader = 5.42
5. Hogue = 4.98
6. Thomas = 4.67
7. Edozie = 4.59
8. Long = 4.03
9. SDW/GT/CC/KJ/DS = 3.62
10. Morris = 3.23

 

[TheHelgo]

Unfortunately, fatigue is certain to have an impact.

Ah, but the X factor in that regard is Burton.

 

[CycloneJames]

Can someone explain the reasoning behind using stats per 40 min? I know KenPom and others use it, but it has never made sense to me. I don't care how many assists, steals, or rebounds Cooke gets per 40 min, because he only plays 15 min per game. Am I crazy? Is it so you can compare everyone (relatively) equally by extrapolating results to 40 min? To me it seems inconsistent to extrapolate Monte's stats to 40 min when he plays 36 min a game and then compare to someone who plays much less.

Feel free to call me stupid, wouldn't be the first time! :wink:

 

[Sigmapolis]

So... basically... Naz wasn't himself this year, despite some flashes.

PER tries to synthesize all these numbers. Let's look at Naz.

FR = 7.7 (in really limited minutes)
SO = 12.1
JR = 15.1
SR = 10.4

He was more like his sophomore self than his junior self, particularly in the early part of the year. He was around 18 in PER, if I remember, before his downward slide later in the season.

Anybody remember this game?

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400585799

Naz was the best player on the floor that night. In a match up of two Top 10 teams, that's rather impressive...

20 points
3/6 from three
5 rebounds
an absolute terror on the break with Monte and McKay

Naz Long's development is one of Fred Hoiberg's ultimate coaching successes--to take an unheralded freshman like that, that not many other major programs wanted, and turn him into an offensive switchblade and serviceable defender like this is pretty impressive. Lots of this was Naz, of course, but coaching helps a lot. Monte, Georges, Thomas were supposed to be really good given their star rankings. Naz wasn't. That makes it all the sweeter.

But we're not losing the guy that clowned KU last year, fortunately/unfortunately. We're losing an inferior version of himself. I'll look forward to seeing his final form next year.

Matty Ice, in comparison...

FR = 9.6
SO = 11.3
JR = 14.6

By that metric, he's up to Naz's *average* level last year. He's also 20/43 from three (46.5%) and hit one of those big, "Are you not entertained?" clutch shots to keep the game alive late against Iowa. Seemed he was the only one who showed up to play the first half, too.

Looks like he's finally being that Big 12-level starter that we hoped for originally. Nice to have on the bench, certainly, but a high-level team can roll with that with assets like Morris, McKay, and Niang around it. If Thomas keeps playing like he did against Iowa...

19pts, 6/9 from three, 4rbs, 2stl... Yikes
Didn't guard Uthoff a ton (Niang actually did), but solid when he was on him
That's a pretty useful two-way guard for Big 12 play

At least Naz had the good sense to be a player at a position where we do have some depth... this happens to Niang or McKay, ekkkk, but at least we have some good off-guards in Thomas and Cooke so we won't miss much of a beat. Helps next year, too.

Morris/Jackson
Mitrou-Long/Thomas/Cooke/Long
Burton/Babb
Malou/Carter/Young

Not lookin' so bad all the sudden, is it?

 

[cyclonespiker33]

Can someone explain the reasoning behind using stats per 40 min? I know KenPom and others use it, but it has never made sense to me. I don't care how many assists, steals, or rebounds Cooke gets per 40 min, because he only plays 15 min per game. Am I crazy? Is it so you can compare everyone (relatively) equally by extrapolating results to 40 min? To me it seems inconsistent to extrapolate Monte's stats to 40 min when he plays 36 min a game and then compare to someone who plays much less.

Feel free to call me stupid, wouldn't be the first time! :wink:

I think it's so you can average things out. Kind of like looking at things on a per possession basis.

 

[Dryburn]

I think it just points out what some people have been trying to point out here. The Naz ISU is losing is this year's Naz, not the Naz of the last two years. It is unfortunate that he did not recover from the surgery in time, but let's face it......his production on the court had slipped a lot from his past performance. Of course, he contributes to this team in other ways, which hopefully he still can do.

 

[Jacktronic]

Can someone explain the reasoning behind using stats per 40 min? I know KenPom and others use it, but it has never made sense to me. I don't care how many assists, steals, or rebounds Cooke gets per 40 min, because he only plays 15 min per game. Am I crazy? Is it so you can compare everyone (relatively) equally by extrapolating results to 40 min? To me it seems inconsistent to extrapolate Monte's stats to 40 min when he plays 36 min a game and then compare to someone who plays much less.

Feel free to call me stupid, wouldn't be the first time! :wink:

Yes, you're trying to standardize the results using a consistent benchmark (per 40 minutes) to allow for equal comparison of production/efficiency/etc between players.

 

[acgclone]

So... basically... Naz wasn't himself this year, despite some flashes.

PER tries to synthesize all these numbers. Let's look at Naz.

FR = 7.7 (in really limited minutes)
SO = 12.1
JR = 15.1
SR = 10.4

He was more like his sophomore self than his junior self, particularly in the early part of the year. He was around 18 in PER, if I remember, before his downward slide later in the season.

Anybody remember this game?

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400585799

Naz was the best player on the floor that night. In a match up of two Top 10 teams, that's rather impressive...

20 points
3/6 from three
5 rebounds
an absolute terror on the break with Monte and McKay

Naz Long's development is one of Fred Hoiberg's ultimate coaching successes--to take an unheralded freshman like that, that not many other major programs wanted, and turn him into an offensive switchblade and serviceable defender like this is pretty impressive. Lots of this was Naz, of course, but coaching helps a lot. Monte, Georges, Thomas were supposed to be really good given their star rankings. Naz wasn't. That makes it all the sweeter.

But we're not losing the guy that clowned KU last year, fortunately/unfortunately. We're losing an inferior version of himself. I'll look forward to seeing his final form next year.

Matty Ice, in comparison...

FR = 9.6
SO = 11.3
JR = 14.6

By that metric, he's up to Naz's *average* level last year. He's also 20/43 from three (46.5%) and hit one of those big, "Are you not entertained?" clutch shots to keep the game alive late against Iowa. Seemed he was the only one who showed up to play the first half, too.

Looks like he's finally being that Big 12-level starter that we hoped for originally. Nice to have on the bench, certainly, but a high-level team can roll with that with assets like Morris, McKay, and Niang around it. If Thomas keeps playing like he did against Iowa...

19pts, 6/9 from three, 4rbs, 2stl... Yikes
Didn't guard Uthoff a ton (Niang actually did), but solid when he was on him
That's a pretty useful two-way guard for Big 12 play

At least Naz had the good sense to be a player at a position where we do have some depth... this happens to Niang or McKay, ekkkk, but at least we have some good off-guards in Thomas and Cooke so we won't miss much of a beat. Helps next year, too.

Morris/Jackson
Mitrou-Long/Thomas/Cooke/Long
Burton/Babb
Malou/Carter/Young

Not lookin' so bad all the sudden, is it?

A couple of points....

I agree it's not looking so bad for next year. Even if Morris leaves, I think that's a decent line up and we could very easily add another grad transfer post player to the mix.

Secondly, it looks like a lot of the consternation over Matt Thomas was due to him being forced to play too big of a role too early. If he had played more sparingly his FR year, he would basically be right on track with the beloved Naz Long.

When you factor in what he's done on the glass, his production appears to be right in line or maybe better than Naz was last year. His defensive improvement has also been great.

 

[Cyientist]

Sorry if it has been discussed elsewhere, but is it assumed that Hallice will back up Monte now?

 

[8bitnes]

Sorry if it has been discussed elsewhere, but is it assumed that Hallice will back up Monte now?

Monte averages 35.1 minutes per game. The 4-pack who play at the end of games average 1.2 minutes per game. That only leaves 3.7 minutes of Monte not in the game. So, one could say Monte does not get a back-up.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Sorry if it has been discussed elsewhere, but is it assumed that Hallice will back up Monte now?

Cooke and Niang will probably be the primary ball handlers when Monte gets his couple minutes of rest.