* Hoiberg Watch 2015: Wednesday, May 27 Thread

[IAStubborn]

I would assume at this point Fred only comes back if he signs an new agreement that basically ensures he is here another 5 years. As much as everyone loves Fred, I think we are all getting tired of this drama every year. If he wants to the NBA in the next 12 months, just go now - lets try to get Horny and lock up the future recruits while making a final 4 run this year.

If Fred says, nope I want to stay at ISU and to show you how much i signed a new contract with a $5MM buyout. Lets keep the party rolling.

If Fred stays with no new agreement, we will have the same issues next year as we do now and we won't have a top 10 roster.

Why would you assume that? Fred has a contract now he can stay here as long as he wants without reworking anything. You may not like it but there s no incentive for him to sign that unless you pay him 5 million a year but even then unless he has a true change of heart I doubt he signs it. This is by far the most unlikely scenario. Much more likely is he stays with current contract and a slight upping of the buyout with a slight raise. honestly though he is most likely gone.

 

[clone136]

I think Otz is more than a short term fix.The guy came back to be an assistant when he had head coaching opportunities elsewhere. Every mid major coach that gets mentioned, we shoot down. I would rather have someone the players are comfortable with than someone the message board crowd thinks is a home run.

 

[Rhoadhoused]

Otz will be 38 years old in September. Otz has been an assistant coach for a Power 5 Conference school for 9 years. Including being the Associate Head Coach at Iowa State for 3 years. Jay Bilas has stated that Otz is one of the top head coaching candidates in America.

Not advocating that we hire Otz. But attempts to portray him as someone who is too young and inexperienced is totally inaccurate.

Link to that Bilas quote?

 

[clone52]

I would assume at this point Fred only comes back if he signs an new agreement that basically ensures he is here another 5 years. As much as everyone loves Fred, I think we are all getting tired of this drama every year. If he wants to the NBA in the next 12 months, just go now - lets try to get Horny and lock up the future recruits while making a final 4 run this year.

If Fred says, nope I want to stay at ISU and to show you how much i signed a new contract with a $5MM buyout. Lets keep the party rolling.

If Fred stays with no new agreement, we will have the same issues next year as we do now and we won't have a top 10 roster.

So what do you do if Fred decides to come back but doesn't want to renegotiate his contract?

 

[IAStubborn]

Most likely scenarios imo in order:
1. Fred goes to Bulls - Hornacek hired as head coach Otz retained as assistant or Associate HC for continuity and recruiting.

2. An older "transition" coach like Larry Brown comes in for 3-4 years with the upfront succession plan of grooming and transitioning responsibilities to Otz where he takes over fully in 2019 or so (this way they don't hand the keys to Iowa State's best team to a first year coach and don't take a hit in 2016 recruit in (Brown is 74 but still a hell of a recruiter).

3. Hoiberg stays a year or 2 and goes to Twolves grooms Otz announces transition and coach in waiting intention to take Twolves job. This would lesson 2016 recruiting woes but would still hurt as recruits are unlikely to sign up for an unproven.

4. Fred leaves and Otz takes over immediatly. This is risky. Anything less than an elite 8 would be a dissappointment. That is a lot of pressure for a first time coach. Plus his recruiting in 2016 would be tough And does he have the MOJO to rebound? Historically though continuity when you have a niche system at a non traditional power is more successful at maintaining success than bringing in fresh new blood.

5. Hoiberg wakes up and realizes he is about to walk away from the best thing that ever happened to him.

6. ISU hires a mid major Coach. This is the most risky. These moves fail more often than succeed. Any coach would bring in new system so 2016 would suffer and have a harder time recruiting for the B12. Archie Miller is the most attractive and could be good but it would come at a price and if it fails JP would be done. Not sure he wants that gamble. However, this move could pay off and bring in the most success.

 

[Clone_12]

I think Otz is more than a short term fix.The guy came back to be an assistant when he had head coaching opportunities elsewhere. Every mid major coach that gets mentioned, we shoot down. I would rather have someone the players are comfortable with than someone the message board crowd thinks is a home run.

That is exactly how we got Wayne Morgan. I'm not saying that otz would be another Wayne Morgan, just that there are far more proven candidates out there.

6 out of the 8 coaches in the elite 8 started at mid-majors. The two returning most respected coaches in the big 12 started at oral Roberts and Texas Pan American...also, can you imagine if we had passed on Floyd for familiarity with hallihan?...or took floyd's top assistant gar Forman, instead of eustachy...coaching hires shouldn't be made on continuity.

 

[carvers4math]

So what do you do if Fred decides to come back but doesn't want to renegotiate his contract?

Let him come back and hope he doesn't drop a UAB turd with a great team because when he leaves for the T-Wolves the cupboard will be bare.

 

[clone52]

Basically, Fred Hoiberg is an unusually gifted human being who succeeds at everything he does.
People want to make that comparison to TJ, but there's no comparison there. One is just starting to get interviews with low mid-majors, the other is in demand by the NBA because he excels at everything he does.

Was Fred in demand by the NBA 5 years ago?

 

[Rhoadhoused]

That is exactly how we got Wayne Morgan. I'm not saying that otz would be another Wayne Morgan, just that there are far more proven candidates out there.

6 out of the 8 coaches in the elite 8 started at mid-majors. The two returning most respected coaches in the big 12 started at oral Roberts and Texas Pan American...also, can you imagine if we had passed on Floyd for familiarity with hallihan?...it took floyd's top assistant gar Forman, instead of eustachy...coaching hires shouldn't be made on continuity.

I want to hug you. This is what I've always thought. ISU is plenty attractive for a top of the freaking line proven blue chip coach with our roster next year.

 

[Clone_12]

Most likely scenarios imo in order:
1. Fred goes to Bulls - Hornacek hired as head coach Otz retained as assistant or Associate HC for continuity and recruiting.

2. A older "transition" coach like Larry Brown comes in for 3-4 years with the upfront succession plan of grooming and transitioning responsibilities to Otz where he takes over fully in 2019 or so (this way they don't hand the keys to Iowa State's best team to a first year coach and don't take a hit in 2016 recruit in (Brown is 74 but still a hell of a recruiter).

3. Hoiberg stays a year or 2 and goes to Twolves grooms Otz announces transition and coach in waiting intention to take Twolves job. This would lesson 2016 recruiting woes but would still hurt as recruits are unlikely to sign up for an unproven.

4. Fred leaves and Otz takes over immediatly. This is risky. Anything less than an elite 8 would be a dissappointment. That is a lot of pressure for a first time coach. Plus his recruiting in 2016 would be tough And does he have the MOJO to rebound? Historically though continuity when you have a niche system at a non traditional power is more successful at maintaining success than bringing in fresh new blood.

5. Hoiberg wakes up and realizes he is about to walk away from the best thing that ever happened to him.

6. ISU hires a mid major Coach. This is the most risky. These moves fail more often than succeed. Any coach would bring in new system so 2016 would suffer and have a harder time recruiting for the B12. Archie Miller is the most attractive and could be good but it would come at a price and if it fails JP would be done. Not sure he wants that gamble.

Number 6 is completely false. 75-80 percent of the top coaches out there came from mid-low majors.

 

[CyStalker]

That is exactly how we got Wayne Morgan. I'm not saying that otz would be another Wayne Morgan, just that there are far more proven candidates out there.

6 out of the 8 coaches in the elite 8 started at mid-majors. The two returning most respected coaches in the big 12 started at oral Roberts and Texas Pan American...also, can you imagine if we had passed on Floyd for familiarity with hallihan?...it took floyd's top assistant gar Forman, instead of eustachy...coaching hires shouldn't be made on continuity.

We got Wayne Morgan because nobody would take the job under BVD because his expectations on contract were to smothering and controlling. No one wants to be told what they can and can't do in their personal life.

 

[jsb]

Most likely scenarios imo in order:
1. Fred goes to Bulls - Hornacek hired as head coach Otz retained as assistant or Associate HC for continuity and recruiting.

2. An older "transition" coach like Larry Brown comes in for 3-4 years with the upfront succession plan of grooming and transitioning responsibilities to Otz where he takes over fully in 2019 or so (this way they don't hand the keys to Iowa State's best team to a first year coach and don't take a hit in 2016 recruit in (Brown is 74 but still a hell of a recruiter).

3. Hoiberg stays a year or 2 and goes to Twolves grooms Otz announces transition and coach in waiting intention to take Twolves job. This would lesson 2016 recruiting woes but would still hurt as recruits are unlikely to sign up for an unproven.

4. Fred leaves and Otz takes over immediatly. This is risky. Anything less than an elite 8 would be a dissappointment. That is a lot of pressure for a first time coach. Plus his recruiting in 2016 would be tough And does he have the MOJO to rebound? Historically though continuity when you have a niche system at a non traditional power is more successful at maintaining success than bringing in fresh new blood.

5. Hoiberg wakes up and realizes he is about to walk away from the best thing that ever happened to him.

6. ISU hires a mid major Coach. This is the most risky. These moves fail more often than succeed. Any coach would bring in new system so 2016 would suffer and have a harder time recruiting for the B12. Archie Miller is the most attractive and could be good but it would come at a price and if it fails JP would be done. Not sure he wants that gamble.

every day I hope #5 happens. Don't leave Fred!

 

[clone136]

That is exactly how we got Wayne Morgan. I'm not saying that otz would be another Wayne Morgan, just that there are far more proven candidates out there.

6 out of the 8 coaches in the elite 8 started at mid-majors. The two returning most respected coaches in the big 12 started at oral Roberts and Texas Pan American...also, can you imagine if we had passed on Floyd for familiarity with hallihan?...or took floyd's top assistant gar Forman, instead of eustachy...coaching hires shouldn't be made on continuity.

I think the Otz to Morgan is fair, but also overly simple. Fred made Otz the associate Head Coach is last year here, he was the one in charge of developing game plans, schemes, etc.

Could we do better than Otz? Maybe. But the idea that getting hims is no better than getting the assistant at Valley High School is unfair.

 

[Cychl82]

Lafester Rhodes!

Ill throw in Big Vic to complete that staff!

 

[CycloneErik]

Link to that Bilas quote?

Found it linked in this Seattle Times article:
http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/t-j-otzelberger-leaves-washington/

I don't have ESPN Insider, so I can't see the actual quote.

 

[CapnCy]

Most likely scenarios imo in order:
1. Fred goes to Bulls - Hornacek hired as head coach Otz retained as assistant or Associate HC for continuity and recruiting.

2. An older "transition" coach like Larry Brown comes in for 3-4 years with the upfront succession plan of grooming and transitioning responsibilities to Otz where he takes over fully in 2019 or so (this way they don't hand the keys to Iowa State's best team to a first year coach and don't take a hit in 2016 recruit in (Brown is 74 but still a hell of a recruiter).

3. Hoiberg stays a year or 2 and goes to Twolves grooms Otz announces transition and coach in waiting intention to take Twolves job. This would lesson 2016 recruiting woes but would still hurt as recruits are unlikely to sign up for an unproven.

4. Fred leaves and Otz takes over immediatly. This is risky. Anything less than an elite 8 would be a dissappointment. That is a lot of pressure for a first time coach. Plus his recruiting in 2016 would be tough And does he have the MOJO to rebound? Historically though continuity when you have a niche system at a non traditional power is more successful at maintaining success than bringing in fresh new blood.

5. Hoiberg wakes up and realizes he is about to walk away from the best thing that ever happened to him.

6. ISU hires a mid major Coach. This is the most risky. These moves fail more often than succeed. Any coach would bring in new system so 2016 would suffer and have a harder time recruiting for the B12. Archie Miller is the most attractive and could be good but it would come at a price and if it fails JP would be done. Not sure he wants that gamble.

That's exactly how I feel about it if I were the one in his shoes. I get personal goals/dreams he may have, but the opportunity to finish this "story" (ball boy, all american, etc) is truly a once in a lifetime, "30 for 30", legendary thing that can't be replicated. I'd argue that, long term, it probably would even have a bigger payday than the NBA money (long term contract, other $$ opportunities)...and let's be honest, all in all, the difference $$ wise at this point is Fred's great grandkids being set for life versus his grandkids being set for life.

 

[ripvdub]

Then how come he can't get a job at a mid-major?

How often to assistants get Power 5 jobs as their first gig? And how often do those inherit a Top 10 team? I'd say rarely, if ever.

Otz is the definition of inexperienced. He has zero experience leading a program. And the Hoiberg example doesn't hold water here because we are in a night-and-day different time than when Hoiberg was hired. We basically had nothing to lose back then. We have everything that Fred built to lose now. If there are established head coaches that are interested in the job, I'd much rather go that route than take the unknown of TJ. Especially since TJ will likely continue to be on the staff.

He did turn down interviews to come back here. I'm being he would have gotten an offer from a wisconsin school.

 

[carvers4math]

Number 6 is completely false. 75-80 percent of the top coaches out there came from mid-low majors.

Before he became an assistant for the Spurs, Popovich was head coach at Pomona-Pitzer. He was the last coach to lose a conference game to Caltech before they went on their 26 year, 310 game conference losing streak.:spinny: Kind of a crap shoot knowing how a coach will turn out, which is really sad in our situation with the team we have coming back.

 

[IAStubborn]

Number 6 is completely false. 75-80 percent of the top coaches out there came from mid-low majors.

Do they not fail more often than they succeed? Yes everyone starts somewhere but the cream of the crop has been taken and ISU historically doesn't get cream. I agree if done right it could be the best move long term but it is a big gamble. I think it is also the most likely move to send us back to oblivion the quickest.

 

[BoxsterCy]

Landing Hornecek would prevent another Chernobyl.

Or be another Fukushima.