Michigan/ISU Predict the Line

[CyTwins]

Open Mich -2.5. Pick em by tipoff. Lock in early.

Sounds right

 

[Doc]

Pick em, KenPom has us winning 70-69 and the line is usually no more than a point or two off of that.

Yeah, but it's really early. I'm not sure if they follow KenPom as much this early in the season.

 

[Doc]

It's more than that. We were pick em against KU at home and we were 12 pt dogs in Lawrence and IIRC around 8 pt dogs at the big 12 against them.

Yeah, that makes more sense. I was thinking it was 3-4, but that's not even more than football. 6-8 would make more sense to me.

 

[mjhavlo76]

I think Iowa State upsets Michigan. But I think the line will be Michigan -8 points.

 

[kucyclone]

Some of you guys are crazy high on this line. Weird to see this board so pessimistic. I'll go pick'em.

 

[enisthemenace]

Michigan -4.5

 

[ajk4st8]

Some of you guys are crazy high on this line. Weird to see this board so pessimistic. I'll go pick'em.

You have to remember the line is set initially not how Vegas is predicting the game, but rather so they can get a relatively even amount of cash on either side of the bet. The line right before gametime is much closer to what they actually think. I think a TON of people would put LOTS of money on Michigan if the game was a pickem, leaving the bet relatively lop sided.

They will start it high in favor of Michigan, let some good money come in on ISU, then move the line more appropriately.

I just have a hard time seeing them doing the opposite by sticking as a pickem, and then dropping the score to Michigan favored high. Who knows.

 

[cyclones500]

Michigan -5.5

 

[Londo]

I wonder if it will be high enough toward MI that CW tells you to put your mortgage on the line!

 

[Wesley]

Mich by 4 per Vegas odds.

 

[cstrunk]

Michigan -1.5

 

[yler4cy]

Where can I find the spread? I am looking to bet a friend in Michigan on this game.

 

[kucyclone]

The line opened at Michigan -2 on a couple offshore books.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/[email protected]/date/11-17-13/time/1700

 

[RedlineSi]

Moved to -1 now.

 

[kucyclone]

You have to remember the line is set initially not how Vegas is predicting the game, but rather so they can get a relatively even amount of cash on either side of the bet. The line right before gametime is much closer to what they actually think. I think a TON of people would put LOTS of money on Michigan if the game was a pickem, leaving the bet relatively lop sided.

They will start it high in favor of Michigan, let some good money come in on ISU, then move the line more appropriately.

I just have a hard time seeing them doing the opposite by sticking as a pickem, and then dropping the score to Michigan favored high. Who knows.

This is an all-time great #making****up post.

The first Vegas book to post the line has it as a pick'em. http://www.vegasinsider.com/[email protected]/date/11-17-13/time/1700#AA

 

[clone11]

You have to remember the line is set initially not how Vegas is predicting the game, but rather so they can get a relatively even amount of cash on either side of the bet. The line right before gametime is much closer to what they actually think. I think a TON of people would put LOTS of money on Michigan if the game was a pickem, leaving the bet relatively lop sided.

They will start it high in favor of Michigan, let some good money come in on ISU, then move the line more appropriately.

I just have a hard time seeing them doing the opposite by sticking as a pickem, and then dropping the score to Michigan favored high. Who knows.

omg Donkey. You have zero idea of what you speak of, and you could not be further from correct.

 

[FDWxMan]

Lines are set strictly to get close to money on each side.

They move only if the betting is too heavy on one side. Has nothing to do with what Vegas "thinks."

Pure and simple $$ bet on Team A is roughly = $$ bet on Team B. That is all the lines are.

Where's Blum when you need him?

 

[CyArob]

Lines are set strictly to get even money on each side.

They move only if the betting is too heavy on one side. Has nothing to do with what Vegas "thinks."

Pure and simple $$ bet on Team A = $$ bet on Team B. That is all the lines are.

Where's Blum when you need him?

It's amazing how many people don't understand this concept.

 

[kucyclone]

Lines are set strictly to get even money on each side.

They move only if the betting is too heavy on one side. Has nothing to do with what Vegas "thinks."

Pure and simple $$ bet on Team A = $$ bet on Team B. That is all the lines are.

Where's Blum when you need him?

That's mostly a popular misconception. Vegas will happily take more money on one side if it thinks that side is unlikely to win. The sportsbooks are often in a position of cheering for one team or another during big games, because they have taken more money on one side. It's not as simple as you all think.

 

[FDWxMan]

That's mostly a popular misconception. Vegas will happily take more money on one side if it thinks that side is unlikely to win. The sportsbooks are often in a position of cheering for one team or another, because they have taken more money on one side.

Even if technically you're correct in a few cases, that also further proves my point.

If your bookie is taking 55 or 60% of the money on one side, they're only allowing it if they know the line is crap and that side will never cover.

Otherwise your bookie isn't going to be in business much longer.