Michigan/ISU Predict the Line

  • After Iowa State won the Big 12, a Cyclone made a wonderful offer to We Will that now increases our match. Now all gifts up to $400,000 between now and the Final 4 will be matched. Please consider giving at We Will Collective.
    This notice can be dismissed using the upper right corner X button.

FDWxMan

Well-Known Member
Jan 31, 2009
3,047
909
113
Des Moines
So I'm right that they don't always get even money on both sides. What I've been saying the whole time.

Uh no.

Vegas will happily take more money on one side if it thinks that side is unlikely to win. The sportsbooks are often in a position of cheering for one team or another during big games, because they have taken more money on one side. It's not as simple as you all think.

I just gave you an article, from you own, handpicked example, where they flat out said that bets on one side they thought would come in, didn't come in. Didn't seem like they happily took it, since, you know, they kept moving the line toward the Giants to try and generate more Pats bets. If they were happy taking all the money on the Giants, why did they move the line?

If you don't think Vegas is trying to dupe people into getting the action into that 52/48 (or whatever the odds on a particular event are) window to guarantee profit, I don't know what to tell you.

The goal of Vegas is to get the action close to even so they make money. Yeah, it doesn't always happen. But that is the goal and the idea behind the lines.
 

bosco

Well-Known Member
Dec 21, 2008
8,985
6,227
113
Des Moines
Those guys in the desert are pretty smart. If the line has moved towards ISU then someone knows something. Always remember Drake in 2011.
 

kucyclone

Well-Known Member
Jan 16, 2008
2,647
128
63
Seattle
Uh no.



I just gave you an article, from you own, handpicked example, where they flat out said that bets on one side they thought would come in, didn't come in. Didn't seem like they happily took it, since, you know, they kept moving the line toward the Giants to try and generate more Pats bets. If they were happy taking all the money on the Giants, why did they move the line?

If you don't think Vegas is trying to dupe people into getting the action into that 52/48 (or whatever the odds on a particular event are) window to guarantee profit, I don't know what to tell you.

The goal of Vegas is to get the action close to even so they make money. Yeah, it doesn't always happen. But that is the goal and the idea behind the lines.

When Vegas got $500,000 more in bets on the Giants, did they stop taking action? Did they shift the lines dramatically to get more money on the Patriots? No, the happily took more bets on the Giants.

When Vegas got $1,000,000 more in bets on the Giants, did they stop taking action? Did they shift the lines dramatically to get more money on the Patriots? No, they happily took more bets on the Giants.

When Vegas got $1,500,000 more in bets on the Giants, did they stop taking action? Did they shift the lines dramatically to get more money on the Patriots? No, they happily took more bets on the Giants.

When Vegas got $2,000,000 more in bets on the Giants, did they stop taking action? Did they shift the lines dramatically to get more money on the Patriots? No, they happily took more bets on the Giants.

So, sure, in a simple, fairy-tale world, they try to get even money on both sides. But it doesn't always happen, and they still happily take the bets anyway, knowing that profit is more likely than not. If it wasn't, they would stop taking the bets.
 

Dryburn

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2006
10,026
515
113
Somewhere in the U.S.
I noticed these "comments" on one of the sites too, under the lines......

MIC-F-Mitch McGary-Probable | IOS-F-Melvin Ejim-OUT | TV: ESPN 2, DTV: 209