Another snow storm?

[cyinne]

Dont know if there is anybody has been paying attention but looks like there is at least a better than normal chance (id say 55-60%) of another substantial snowstorm, pretty much like the last one, happening midweek. Here is the details from a weather website I frequent- the guy was 100% correct with the last one so I trust him quite a bit--

The upper air low gradually lift out as we head through Tuesday and things look fairly quiet for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Then as mentioned, there are still indications from the models that a fairly powerful winter storm will develop in the central Plains and move into the NW and northern Midwest by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. All of the models are now onto this idea, which certainly increases the confidence that it will occur, but we are still not yet to the point where I feel highly confident the storm will occur. Confidence has gone from around 50% yesterday to around 65% today.
If things were to develop as most of the models indicate, a band of 8-12"+ snows would fall from eastern NE into much of IA, the southeast ½ of MN, the northwest 2/3rds of WI and most of the UP. Lake Enhancement of the snows could lead to some heavier totals in the UP. Rains would change to snow in SE WI as well as northern IL and most of lower MI and the change over could occur fast enough Christmas Eve that 2-5" of snow could fall by Christmas Day in those areas.

 

[ianoconnor]

Sweet.

 

[cyclonedave25]

Perfect.... I hope when I drive back home on Christmas Eve, I don't run into this thing.

 

[Cyclonesrule91]

Charlie Freese with Freese-Notis said today the way the models are tracking that the corn belt especially west of the Mississippi river is going to be getting up to a foot or more of snow from a slow moving storm that is to begin late Tuesday and last till late Christmas day. It could track a little differently then it's showing now but said he could give a much more confident storm forecast on Monday. It's going to be an interesting week it sounds like.

 

[CyCrazy]

Ya around 6-8 inches next wendsday thru thursday. Good thing Im going to San Diego on thursday

 

[Cyclonesrule91]

Ya around 6-8 inches next wendsday thru thursday. God thing Im going to San Diego on thursday

We took our kids to Disneyworld during the week of the last storm but don't have an escape plan for this storm.....which is OK. I love these storms.

 

[Chizit]

Hell yeah, it'll make the Tempe trip even more enjoyable.

 

[Iastfan112]

Maybe, the models have been inconsistent and show a large spread on the position of the storm. For instance, the 12 UTC GFS had us getting hammered, the 18 UTC GFS has it miss all but the SE corner of Iowa entirely, this is the same model run 6 hours apart coming up with hugely varied solutions. Certainly bears watching but its too early to say warrant getting excited over it.

 

[FDWxMan]

Maybe, the models have been inconsistent and show a large spread on the position of the storm. For instance, the 12 UTC GFS had us getting hammered, the 18 UTC GFS has it miss all but the SE corner of Iowa entirely, this is the same model run 6 hours apart coming up with hugely varied solutions. Certainly bears watching but its too early to say warrant getting excited over it.

True, but the 18 UTC GFS is crap. It is notorious for crazy solutions, namely spinning up massive storms out of nowhere, or this, the opposite.

For that matter, really the only runs to pay attention to are 00 and 12Z runs, as they have the new radiosonde data, and therefore actually have legitimate reasons to show substantial change. Plus, the GFS and ECMWF (European) models have slowing been coming together, or at least closer to agreeing on a track that would definitely have a significant impact on Iowa, even if it's not a direct hit.

 

[FDWxMan]

Charlie Freese with Freese-Notis said today the way the models are tracking that the corn belt especially west of the Mississippi river is going to be getting up to a foot or more of snow from a slow moving storm that is to begin late Tuesday and last till late Christmas day. It could track a little differently then it's showing now but said he could give a much more confident storm forecast on Monday. It's going to be an interesting week it sounds like.

Very true. Parent system is still way out over the Pacific Ocean and really won't be into the atmospheric sampling network over the US/Canada until late Sunday/Monday.

Once it gets into the area where we have weather balloon launches and can have a much more detailed idea of what's going on will the forecast start to be more concrete...if only we could steal a few Hurricane Hunters to become Blizzard Hunters :yes:.

 

[cyclone1975]

True, but the 18 UTC GFS is crap. It is notorious for crazy solutions, namely spinning up massive storms out of nowhere, or this, the opposite.

For that matter, really the only runs to pay attention to are 00 and 12Z runs, as they have the new radiosonde data, and therefore actually have legitimate reasons to show substantial change. Plus, the GFS and ECMWF (European) models have slowing been coming together, or at least closer to agreeing on a track that would definitely have a significant impact on Iowa, even if it's not a direct hit.

huh?

 

[Palmer]

I know here in operations at the airport...we are gearing up...

 

[FDWxMan]

huh?

Haha, sorry. (English version now)

The GFS and ECMWF are two medium range forecasting models. The runs of these models at 0Z and 12Z time (6AM and PM for us) are the most credible as they include the new data from the most recent weather balloon launches.

Lately they have been hinting at similar forecasts with Iowa being the target for this storm, but are still fairly inconsistent.

And, since no one is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean launching weather balloons, these models will still likely swing around a bit until the parent system moves over the West Coast (late Sun/Mon)

 

[alarson]

A storm about that time would probably do wonderful things for those trying to get packages in time for christmas...

 

[cyinne]

A storm about that time would probably do wonderful things for those trying to get packages in time for christmas...

Not to mention the thousands of people stuck at airports practically ruining their Christmas.

 

[alarson]

I'm just hoping the iowa\missouri\kansas area stays clear on the 30th so it doesnt screw up any bowl plans. I'm prepared to leave on the 29th if i have to and stay in KC that night if its just hitting iowa, but id be ****** if a storm killed my bowl trip.

 

[wxman1]

True, but the 18 UTC GFS is crap. It is notorious for crazy solutions, namely spinning up massive storms out of nowhere, or this, the opposite.

For that matter, really the only runs to pay attention to are 00 and 12Z runs, as they have the new radiosonde data, and therefore actually have legitimate reasons to show substantial change. Plus, the GFS and ECMWF (European) models have slowing been coming together, or at least closer to agreeing on a track that would definitely have a significant impact on Iowa, even if it's not a direct hit.

+1

 

[Iastfan112]

True, but the 18 UTC GFS is crap. It is notorious for crazy solutions, namely spinning up massive storms out of nowhere, or this, the opposite.

For that matter, really the only runs to pay attention to are 00 and 12Z runs, as they have the new radiosonde data, and therefore actually have legitimate reasons to show substantial change. Plus, the GFS and ECMWF (European) models have slowing been coming together, or at least closer to agreeing on a track that would definitely have a significant impact on Iowa, even if it's not a direct hit.

While I agree the 18 UTC gfs definitely should be taken in with a judgmental eye, many of the GFS ensembles from 12 utc also predicted a more southern route. I would have had a much higher degree of confidence if the storm continued to verify run to run as indeed the one early in December, did(you look a 6-7 days out on that one and it was pretty much on and stayed that way all the in).

In additon to the samplings which FDWxman mentioned in a later post closer to the storm you have additional forecast models coming into play, first the NAM and then NMM and ARW. If you'd like to see more about what we have been referencing:
Model Analyses and Forecasts is a good starter place for the US models anways. PM me if you'd like any clarifying details on reading the maps.

 

[cyclonenate]

It's fun but its a pain

 

[kingcy]

Atleast Santa will have fresh snow to land on.