It's been a long time since I've done a long-form article so thought I'd take the time...
I think I've said on here after every basketball or football game for 15 years that people always overreact to a win or a loss. Hybe builds exponentially when we look good in a game, and the doom and gloom breaks out when we struggle for a game - let alone a stretch of them. Likewise, people listen to all the offseason hype - building expectations that aren't usually founded in the reality of what our team looks like at each position. The reality is always somewhere in the middle.
Perspective:
A lot of fans are rightfully frustrated over the past several weeks. While emotions are natural, the program is still in a better place than it's ever been...
- We have our best coach in history.
- Our longest stretch of success.
- Are largely well respected throughout the country.
- Recruiting continues to trend in the right direction.
- Defense is playing as well as it ever has.
- Just graduated the best players we've arguably ever had at QB, WR, and TE.
- Are getting players into the NFL at a good clip.
- Have a few strong studs currently committed.
With that said, there are also some areas of concern...
- While better, our recruiting still ranks at the bottom of the Big 12.
- Our league is tougher than ever with even Kansas improving.
- We have a ton of youth throughout the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.
- Our o-line hasn't improved at all over the past number of years.
- Multi-year struggles inside the opponent's 30.
- Inconsistency in the special teams unit.
- There is a national narrative that maybe CMC has hit his ceiling in Ames.
- 80% of our passing runs through one receiver.
Reality Check:
This all leads to a little bit of a reality check...
Recruiting:
Iowa State is still a developmental and fundamentals program. We will never be above average in recruiting or ranked above 1/3rd to 1/2 of our league given various reasons. If we don't play fundamental football and develop our 2 and 3 star players into consistent winners, we're going to struggle. Fundamentals have been lacking in various ways and really need to be a focus. For all the talk of winning in the margins, we need to double down on the small things. We've lost more games on a lack of fundamentals and mistakes than anything over the past 5-7 years.
With that said, we do need another increase in recruiting as we have a lot of gaps that just don't have an established pipeline or team parity. A good example is o-line; our recruiting continues to struggle and despite a string of good QB and RB recruits/commits, they're never going to reach their potential without protection and blocking. We will struggle in the red zone when defenses lock down because we can't dictate anything.
Unfortunately, I do think we have less dynamic, speed-oriented talent at several positions. This is sometimes confused with schematic issues and play-calling because the players can't do what the plays need. Example - while there is talent at RB, each of the players have a unique style but all require fairly decent holes. Brock isn't the type of back Montgomery or Hall were where they could make something out of nothing. Sanders isn't strong enough to go inside. Silas is a wrecking ball but needs a bit of a head start. Brock is the only one in the 4-deep that looks like an every-down back, and even he will struggle because of other positions.
Schematics:
Defense is playing lights out, even with a lot of youth. Enough said.
Offense continues to struggle in the same places year-over-year. I don't know the root cause, but this needs to be the biggest focus area immediately and long-term. One could make a great case for schematics, and even the announcers the past 2 weeks have expressed bewilderment at many of the routes and play calling. While we've clearly had our best offense over the past 5 years, we've also had elite and dynamic talent at key positions that could mask any issues. Without that, our play calling doesn't appear to be sufficient. Running 3-yard routes on 3rd or 4th and long is becoming a national joke and identity. Running inside 3 straight plays for no gain isn't going to get it done. Those worked when we had dynamic players with great yards after contact/catch, but it hasn't adapted to current personnel.
Offensive rankings after 6 games;
- 110th for yards per play
- 114th for yards per point
- 123rd for yards per completion
- 190th for scoring offense
- 38th for plays per game
- 116th for rushing offense
- 115th for yards per run at 3.0 (down from 5.4 last year)
- 105th for rushing attempts per game.
Now, when you look at talent, experience, and schematics, I think they create a perfect storm for what we're seeing. While people will use anything to justify their opinions or agenda, I don't think there is any one thing that is at fault, but rather a whole lot of things. We're young, we're predictable, we're not tough up front, and we lack speed. The play book gets pretty small when those things converge. Unfortunately, I don't think that is a quick fix either. It's not all doom and gloom, but there are some rough patches ahead.
So where do we go? I think we need to buckle in for a rough remainder of the year. I said in the offseason I thought this looked like a rebuilding year with 6-7 wins and we're probably looking at 5 or 6 wins realistically unless something big happens. What I want to see though is a change in schematics, a focus on fundamentals, and an urgency to improve. We need to find an identity and double down. I want to see coaches speak more about the issues instead of deflecting. If we don't, a lot can be undone in one season.
Some of the talent committed will fit nicely with older versions of the current roster. Coaching can improve and new ideas can be mixed in. We have a solid defense to build around and some good young players throughout.
We need to show our 5-star culture if we're going to be ready to compete in the new Big 12 and keep recruiting on an upward trajectory.
Go Cyclones!
