Women's Bracketology 2/20

[ISU3PtLand]

It was posted late in the night.....

Bracketology - Women's College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

#11 seed in the Raleigh regional. Really wouldn't want to face St. John's in the first round.

 

[acoustimac]

It was posted late in the night.....

Bracketology - Women's College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

#11 seed in the Raleigh regional. Really wouldn't want to face St. John's in the first round.

Zero respect for the Big 12. Even Iowa is a 9 seed. Really? Oklahoma is a 7 and of course falling because they lost to lowly Iowa State. What a maroon.

 

[mj4cy]

So there is no way to play in Ames and then in Des Moines?

 

[AllN4ISU]

If Iowa State makes the NCAA Tournament they are guaranteed to play in Ames for the 1st and 2nd rounds, Des Moines is not a guarantee that they would be placed in that regional.

 

[Clonehomer]

If Iowa State makes the NCAA Tournament they are guaranteed to play in Ames for the 1st and 2nd rounds, Des Moines is not a guarantee that they would be placed in that regional.

I thought this wasn't the case anymore. The commitee will try to put ISU in Ames, but I wouldn't guarantee it if they are seeded below 7th.

 

[Three4Cy]

We are a actually a ten seed in his bracket but he bumped us down because of bracketing principles.

 

[Three4Cy]

If Iowa State makes the NCAA Tournament they are guaranteed to play in Ames for the 1st and 2nd rounds, Des Moines is not a guarantee that they would be placed in that regional.

I thought this wasn't the case anymore. The commitee will try to put ISU in Ames, but I wouldn't guarantee it if they are seeded below 7th.

If we make the tourney we will play in Ames regardless of our seed.

 

[kcdc4isu]

Remember this is just his idea of a bracket. If this were the final one the well will be pretty much empty for the games it would host.

 

[mred]

We are a actually a ten seed in his bracket but he bumped us down because of bracketing principles.

Given that we are hosting, getting bumped up or down is a real possibility. I'd say an 11 seed might actually be preferable a 10 seed.

 

[mred]

If we make the tourney we will play in Ames regardless of our seed.

This. If we make the tourney, we are absolutely 100% guaranteed to play in Ames.

 

[Buster28]

Women's teams that host 1st and 2nd round games always play at home in the NCAA tournament, assuming they make the tournament, and assuming there are no scheduling conflicts. Even as a 16 seed, they would host if the site is selected ahead of time to do so (bidding to host happens a couple of years in advance).

Rules changed a few years back to NOT allow host schools to play at home if they host a regional site. Northern Iowa hosts the Des Moines regional this year. While it's likely we would be placed in the Des Moines region this year, it's not guaranteed. 1st and 2nd round games are a guarantee.

When we made the Elite 8 in 2009, we played in the Berkeley region. California, the host of that region, was put elsewhere and not allowed to play in their own building. Kinda takes away the incentive to host a regional, but the rules changed to try and keep host teams from having too great an advantage to reach the Final Four.

 

[mred]

Zero respect for the Big 12. Even Iowa is a 9 seed. Really? Oklahoma is a 7 and of course falling because they lost to lowly Iowa State. What a maroon.

Iowa's resume looks a lot like ours, and we're a 10 (procedurally bumped down to 11). That doesn't bother me much.

OU is a bit underseeded (and under-ranked). They've beaten some good teams, and three of their recent losses are to RPI #1 Baylor (x2) and #2 RPI UConn.

He also seeded KSU #7 (bumped to #6). That seems low given they have a #11 RPI, but they are 4-6 in their last 10 (against tough competition). We are the best remaining team on their schedule, so they could easily finish out 3-1 or better. They look more like a 5 to me.

 

[mred]

Let's look at the 1 and 2 seeds if Creme ends up correct on those:
1. Baylor - not hosting. Can't be in the same sub-regional as ISU. A good chance the committee will try to put them in Little Rock.
1. UConn - not hosting, but will be placed in Bridgeport
1. Notre Dame - hosting
1. Stanford - not hosting
2. Duke - not hosting
2. Miami - not hosting
2. Tennessee - not hosting
2. Maryland - hosting

If we are 8-9, we will likely be placed with Stanford. It's the only possibility unless a non-hosting team manages to make it up to a 1. If we are 7-10, then there are a lot of possibilities.

 

[mred]

Sub-regional hosts and likely seed range:

Iowa State (Ames, Iowa) 7-11 seed
Louisiana State (Baton Rouge, Louisiana) 6-9 seed
Bowling Green (Bowling Green, Ohio) 11-13 seed
Fairfield (Bridgeport, Connecticut) NO AT-LARGE (but will have UConn - 1 seed)
Old Dominion (Norfolk, Virginia) NO AT-LARGE
Oklahoma (Norman, Oklahoma) 5-7 seed
Notre Dame (Notre Dame, Indiana) 1-2 seed
Gonzaga (Spokane, Washington) 7-11 seed
Florida State (Tallahassee, Florida) NO AT-LARGE
Purdue (West Lafayette, Indiana) 5-8 seed
North Carolina (Chapel Hill, North Carolina) 10-13 seed or NO AT-LARGE
DePaul (Chicago, Illinois) 4-7 seed
Maryland (College Park, Maryland) 2-3 seed
Texas A&M (College Station, Texas) 2-3 seed
Arkansas-Little Rock (Little Rock, Arkansas) NO AT-LARGE (but will likely have Baylor - 1 seed)
Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tennessee) 5-7 seed

 

[mred]

North Carolina is a weird case. They have a 79 RPI, yet Creme has them in as a 10 seed. I believe that would be by far the lowest RPI for an at-large team in women's NCAA tournament history.

In non-conference, the three best teams they played were #2 UConn (away), #24 Penn State (away) and #33 South Carolina (neutral). They lost all three games by a lot -- the 19-point PSU loss was the closest. They won their other ten non-conference games, but the best team of that group was #245 Presbyterian (no typo).

In the conference, they are currently 9-5. They have a home win over #9 Miami, swept two games against #51 Virginia, and the rest of the wins are against #75 or worse. Four of their five conference losses are to teams #15 or better. The one outlier there is an extremely puzzling loss at home to an awful Clemson team (#228).

Basically, they have a respectable record but a horrible SOS. They have two games left (@ #8 Maryland, vs #10 Duke) that could help their resume but more likely will pull down their record yet push up their SOS and RPI somewhat. I don't see them getting an at-large without winning one of those two games at a bare minimum.

 

[mred]

If we make the tournament, we will almost certainly be a 7-11 seed. That pairs us with a 1, 2, or 3 seed. Of those likely seeds, there are three hosts (Notre Dame, Maryland, Texas A&M), one pseudo-host (UConn in CT), and one likely placement (Baylor in AR). That leaves seven teams seeded 1-3 who could be placed just about anywhere. Some possible teams in that group:

Stanford: 1 seed
Tennessee: 2-3 seed
Duke: 2-4 seed
Miami: 2-4 seed
Kentucky: 3-4 seed
Ohio State: 3-5 seed
Georgia Tech: 3-5 seed
Delaware: 3-6 seed
Penn State: 3-6 seed
Georgia: 3-6 seed
Georgetown: 3-6 seed

 

[BenEClone]

I think our best way to get to the regional is to sandbag - lose to MU and try for a 12/13 seed - we'd have winnable games against 4/5 in Hilton.wink:

Or, play hard and see what happens - match-ups matter.

 

[twistedredbird]

I just don't want an 8 or 9, but if there was a chance of that, and we got Stanford at home, might be some payback time.

Creme is usually fair in his projections, but he really isn't an ISU fan. He doesn't care for our 3-ball offense.

 

[twistedredbird]

If we make the tournament, we will almost certainly be a 7-11 seed. That pairs us with a 1, 2, or 3 seed. Of those likely seeds, there are three hosts (Notre Dame, Maryland, Texas A&M), one pseudo-host (UConn in CT), and one likely placement (Baylor in AR). That leaves seven teams seeded 1-3 who could be placed just about anywhere. Some possible teams in that group:

Stanford: 1 seed
Tennessee: 2-3 seed
Duke: 2-4 seed
Miami: 2-4 seed
Kentucky: 3-4 seed
Ohio State: 3-5 seed
Georgia Tech: 3-5 seed
Delaware: 3-6 seed
Penn State: 3-6 seed
Georgia: 3-6 seed
Georgetown: 3-6 seed

I really would like to see Tennessee land in Hilton and play the Cyclones before Pat retires.

 

[volclone]

I really would like to see Tennessee land in Hilton and play the Cyclones before Pat retires.

If it happens, it will have to be this year--she's done after this season. Very sad.

Also, it would be good to play them this year...Lady Vols are VERY beatable. Very physical, but can't shoot, get beat down the floor with regularity and are quite spotty defensively.

BTW--if TN is a #2 and UNC gets in the tourney, both are HUGE gifts. What do both have in common? Call it the Pat and Sylvia Lifetime Achievement Award.