Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread
- Thread starter chuckd4735
- Start date
If that site provided the maps out to the end of the storm (144hours vs. 120) the grand total from the GFS is 12.4" (for Des Moines).
The GFS total, is banking on 10" in a period of 10 hours, including one window of 4-5" in a 3" period.
So right now, the GFS model is indicating snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour over a 7 or 8 hour window, which, well, doesn't happen often, here, for that long.
For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.
Yes, and this is just the beginning of HOPEFULLY a week to remember in local weather.
Here is a 2 storm total- the graph is from the 12z GFS 204 hr snowfall totals
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CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
So, they're basically saying no less than a foot of snow?
That would be impressive. I miss getting buried by a blizzard.
That would be impressive. I miss getting buried by a blizzard.
No. "They" aren't.
Unless your "they" is raw model output. Then yes.
If "they" are the forecasters, then no. We are not saying that. Not right now.
18z update
18Z GFS output puts Des Moines at 9.3" after accounting for compaction.
I wouldn't bet on it yet. The first image goes well into "model fantasy land." But yes, the 204 hour image is depicting 2 systems.
alarson's image is showing only the snow from the Thursday/Friday system, at least according to that model.
So, how much do you think we are getting? I know it will change, but if you had to guess.
I think a good place to start the bidding is 5-8". Place over/unders on that.
I'm a bit worried since this could sort of be a "dying" system, that dry air could get wrapped in on Thursday and cut stuff down.
Eastern Nebraska would get hammered. I'd probably be more comfortable getting to double digits for amounts around Omaha....maybe Atlantic/Denison/Carroll.
But this thing doesn't move onshore until Tuesday, so those numbers really don't have a lot of significance or meaning at this point.
There is still potential there for totals to go over that in Des Moines, but that's where my gut is going right now.
Winds will be the worst likely while the snow is falling, gusts should be able to top 30.
I would imagine blizzard/whiteout conditions will be pretty easy to come by during, with basically the wind intensity mimicking the snow intensity.
Strongest winds with the heaviest snow, winds dying down (some) as snow wraps up. Not really a big blast of wind behind it like we see alot.
Again, I think the low will be weakening/filling in as it passes by, so that would mean not much blowing afterward.
I would imagine blizzard/whiteout conditions will be pretty easy to come by during, with basically the wind intensity mimicking the snow intensity.
Strongest winds with the heaviest snow, winds dying down (some) as snow wraps up. Not really a big blast of wind behind it like we see alot.
Again, I think the low will be weakening/filling in as it passes by, so that would mean not much blowing afterward.
all I need to know is whether I will get a snow day in Madison this week. Please say yes. Pretty please 
all I need to know is whether I will get a snow day in Madison this week. Please say yes. Pretty please
Snowdays an Sledding are her favorites.
all I need to know is whether I will get a snow day in Madison this week. Please say yes. Pretty please
Possibly. What does it take up there in Madison?
I think it will have weakened quite a bit by the time it makes it there, but there may be enough early on Friday + the winds to make plows far enough behind for Friday morning to get a snow day.
Current track/timing really doesn't get things that exciting up you way until probably at least 6pm Thursday.
