*****The Super, Mega, Huge Big 12 Expansion Thread*****

[boone7247]

Population shift driving Big Ten expansion study - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

Okay, so this confirms that the B10 footprint is not losing pop, it is growing at a slower rate. I wonder how much longer this growth is sustainable. Yes the b10 will expand further, I would assume it will be east or southeast of the current footprint. This would align with the article. Nebraska was a natural fit, does it check all the boxes on the wish list, probably not, but at that time it was the largest national brand available to the B10.

 

[bosco]

That does make sense. But I absolutely hate protected rivalries. It is a set up for having an unbalanced/unfair schedule and puts teams on unequal footing...They make sense for obvious reasons but The Big 10 protected rivalries all over are so ******* stupid.

You can't throw out years of tradition out the window. Getting rid of The Iowa/Purdue rivalry would be a travesty.

 

[boone7247]

That does make sense. But I absolutely hate protected rivalries. It is a set up for having an unbalanced/unfair schedule and puts teams on unequal footing...They make sense for obvious reasons but The Big 10 protected rivalries all over are so ******* stupid.

Don't disagree with this. Obviously for the B12 tx/ok have to play every year, the networks won't give this up. Makes me wonder how much tv partners play in the protected rival matchups. Although with a 12 team league playing nine conf games protected rivals would really only be screwing up the schedule once every three years or one third of the rotation through the opposite division. Now once you get to 14, you really are screwing with the competition of teams.

 

[Let's Go State]

You can't throw out years of tradition out the window. Getting rid of The Iowa/Purdue rivalry would be a travesty.

FIFY

 

[cyclones500]

Another question: If you go to 14 or 16 teams, how many conference game you having? Cuz it seems to me if you go 16, you would do either 7 or 9 (your quad and another or your quad or 2 each from the other 3 quads)...

This is one reason I'm not crazy about megaconference at 14 or 16 --- seems too scattered to have a conference identity as far as football scheduling. Even with a 9-game schedule, wouldn't a 16-team league mean playing some teams only once every four seasons? (or twice every 8, in home-and-home groupings)?

 

[cykadelic2]

Remember the quote by one of the Mizzou Board of Curator's members last fall?
Q: Why would you leave the Big 12?
A: There are 33 million reasons to leave the Big 12...

Of course the SEC didn't promise Mizzou $33 million after their deals were restructured, but you can bet that someone from the SEC offices threw out this projected number of 33 million to them...Although probably 33 million will be at the high end of their projections. I bet somehow they end up somewhere around 30 million though when the dust settles.

Just wait for the Big 10 and their new deal in 2016. I bet they end up with at least $35 million/team/yr.

That's why its important for the Big 12 to have successful expansion efforts. You want to end up in the $25-30 million/team/yr range like the Pac 12 is at to stay in the same ballpark as the Big 10 and SEC.

If the Big 12 takes the football cream of the crop from the ACC, and the ACC shifts completely basketball centric, it will be a matter of time before schools with options like North Carolina realize they need to leave the ACC behind in order to compete financially.

Neinas claims the SEC numbers that they threw at Mizzou were BS and Neinas was not afforded the chance to speak to Mizzou about the SEC's BS numbers.

I doubt the SEC's new numbers will be that close to $30M/yr. ESPN has the leverage in SEC renegotiations as they proved in the ACC renegotiations.

 

[SNEDDS3]

Divisional Alignment, Competitive Balance Style

So let's say that Florida State and Clemson join the Big 12. The conference would then need to determine divisions. Remember how the Big 10 did it? They took historical records of each program to determine competitive balance.

The Big 12 can do the same.

Listed below are the winning percentages and overall records of each program since the 1996 season (the inception of the Big 12). Schools not in the Big 12 for this time period are in italics.

Texas: 75.1% (154-51)
Oklahoma: 72.2% (151-58)
TCU: 71.4% (140-56)
Florida State: 71.0% (137-56)*
West Virginia: 66.7% (132-66)
Kansas State: 65.0% (130-70)
Texas Tech: 62.3% (124-75)
Clemson: 59.0% (118-82)
Oklahoma State: 58.2% (113-81)
Kansas: 42.6% (80-108)
Iowa State: 39.6% (76-116)
Baylor: 31.9% (59-126)

*A total of 12 wins in 2006 and 2007 were vacated.

The goal is to get both division's average winning percentage as close to the overall conference's as possible. I'm going to just ignore TCU's (it skews very high), but I'll factor in the other new schools'. The average of those 11 percentages is 58.5%.

The first thing to consider with divisions is likely that two Texas schools would be in each, as schools would want this for recruiting purposes. Seeing that one is first in wins and one is last, while the other two are middle of the road (considering TCU's inflation), it's a fair bet that UT/BU and TCU/TTU would be paired. We'll call UT and BU "Division A" and TCU/TTU "Division B" for now.

As Oklahoma has the next highest winning percentage and is also the next biggest brand, it's very unlikely that they would be with UT in Division A. I know those schools have said otherwise in the past, but it just doesn't make sense that way. Oklahoma is in Division B. This would also necessitate a protected crossover rivalry game between the divisions. Because OU and UT would be protected rivals, the Bedlam Game would only be saved by placing Oklahoma State in Division B as well.

Let's see where we are now:

Division A:
Baylor - 31.9%
Texas - 75.1%

Division B:
Oklahoma - 72.2%
Oklahoma State - 58.2%
TCU - 71.4%
Texas Tech - 62.3%

Florida State: 71.0% (137-56)*
West Virginia: 66.7% (132-66)
Kansas State: 65.0% (130-70)
Clemson: 59.0% (118-82)
Kansas: 42.6% (80-108)
Iowa State: 39.6% (76-116)

It doesn't make much logical sense to put the two lowest winning percentages in the same division, especially with the way that Division B is trending (some pretty high numbers there). Iowa State should belong in that division. Those four schools (excluding TCU) now have an average percentage of 58.1%, extremely close to the average. To keep it right on par, Clemson, who's right on the average, can round out Division B. That leaves four schools for Division A.


So, let's see where we ended up. Remember our goal is that 58.5% average:

Division A:
Baylor - 31.9%
Florida State - 71.0%
Kansas - 42.6%
Kansas State - 65.0%
Texas - 75.1%
West Virginia - 66.7%

Division A average winning percentage: 58.7%

Division B:
Clemson - 59.0%
Iowa State - 39.6%
Oklahoma - 72.2%
Oklahoma State - 58.2%
TCU
Texas Tech - 62.3%

Division B average winning percentage (excluding TCU): 58.3%

Protected rivalries would include Texas-Oklahoma and Baylor-TCU (among others, obviously). Each division ends up with two Texas schools, as well as exactly 4 "old" school and 2 "new" ones.

Yeah, I think that'd do it.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wv0wM8Ht2w]Mr. Wizard's World - YouTube[/ame]

 

[SNEDDS3]

Also wanted to say that I did see a guy in an orange nike golf shirt with a clemson paw on it last night at the CR tailgate. Just saying. (Not kidding)


See edit.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Really interesting stuff here.

Scout.com: Big 12 Growing? Brian Ethridge

I'll be the first to say it, even though I have bashed others for bringing it up, if we get TV money 30 million or more, we should seriously consider bringing back baseball.

 

[isuno1fan]

Really interesting stuff here.

Scout.com: Big 12 Growing? Brian Ethridge

I'll be the first to say it, even though I have bashed others for bringing it up, if we get TV money 30 million or more, we should seriously consider bringing back baseball.

Don't think so

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Don't think so

You still waiting for Louisville?

 

[ISUAgronomist]

if we get TV money 30 million or more, we should seriously consider bringing back baseball.

NO.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

NO.

Yeah, I know. It would just be nice when all the other schools play it.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

BYU to the PAC?

I know its just Rugby, but maybe it is a first step?

 

[erikbj]

BYU to the PAC?

I know its just Rugby, but maybe it is a first step?

makes sense, if we go to 16 team conferences - the PAC 12, is really going to struggle to find 4 more teams that somewhat fit geographically and can be competitive.

 

[jbhtexas]

Okay, so this confirms that the B10 footprint is not losing pop, it is growing at a slower rate. I wonder how much longer this growth is sustainable. Yes the b10 will expand further, I would assume it will be east or southeast of the current footprint. This would align with the article. Nebraska was a natural fit, does it check all the boxes on the wish list, probably not, but at that time it was the largest national brand available to the B10.

NU was the lynch pin of the Delaney/Scott superconference dream scenario. That's why NU is in the Big Ten.

It could still work out for Delaney. If the ACC weakens enough, he might be able to coax some ACC teams (UNC, Duke, VT) to the Big Ten.

The big loser may actually be Scott. Certainly he wanted more than Utah and Colorado.

 

[HFCS]

Divisional Alignment, Competitive Balance Style

If they use stats to split divisions competitively they should use RPI or Sagarin ranking, not win%. College football schedules are radically different even among conferences like the SEC and Big 12. Some SEC teams still get to schedule 4 cupcakes while ISU has two maximum. Let alone ACC, Big East and MWC. I am excited to add these teams, but I also think ISU's recent teams could have found 8-9 wins playing in those leagues with 8-10 very winnable games on the schedule compared to our schedules where we're only favored 2-5 weeks a season.

 

[HFCS]

NU was the lynch pin of the Delaney/Scott superconference dream scenario. That's why NU are in the Big Ten.

It could still work out for Delaney. If the ACC weakens enough, he might be able to coax some ACC teams (UNC, Duke, VT) to the Big Ten.

The big loser may actually be Scott. Certainly he wanted more than Utah and Colorado.

IMHO their big mistake was knowing it's all about football, yet assuming that the on average #2 football conference would easily fade away to make room for the #5 or #6 football conference to have a huge spot at the 4 League table.

It just makes little sense that a conference that has made the top 4 only once in the last decade, would suddenly be in the top 4 automatically every season now according to Scott's 16x4 original dream.

 

[KnappShack]

if we get TV money 30 million or more, we should seriously consider bringing back baseball.

NO.

I'm calling for the penalty box whenever someone says baseball should be brought back.

 

[jbhtexas]

Yeah, I know. It would just be nice when all the other schools play it.

Don't worry. If FSU and Clemson join the Big 12, ISU will eventually be playing it too...

Sorry for all the baseball haters out there...baseball is the big-time NCAA men's spring sport. Any team that wants to be part of a big-time conference will eventually play the big-time sports. It's inevitable.