STEVE DEACE: The future of college football

clonedude

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Do you really think Texas will be happy playing ALL of their away games up north? No way.

I'd bet Texas ends up in the Pac 12, and ND goes B1G.

As for Deace, I agree that CF doesn't need his input, they have better writers than him on their own staff IMO.

I do think if the NCAA, or whoever ends up being the governing body in the future, cares at all about the student athlete, they will have to eventually tear this whole thing down and start over by arranging conferences geographically. I just hope ISU makes it in if they do.
 

JRE1975

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I don't understand why some people think that ISU, KSU, and TTU, all larger public schools, will be left out, but Boston College, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt will fly through. Big 12 has a better financial situation than the ACC.

I don't know for sure, but I would not be surprised if the Big 12 schools total tier 3 revenue is significantly more than the ACC will make on their network.
 

Yellow Snow

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Thank goodness he's not in charge

I don't know about you... but i'd sign up for what he proposes in a heartbeat.

His vision will never happen in reality. But if he were in charge, which was the premise in the first place, i'd take it yesterday.
 
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Cycsk

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Sorry Steve but this is an out-of-date theory. The super-conferences that we see now are just step to the ultimate end of one giant "conference." The single conference model will allow the schools to leverage the most out of TV money. In essence, if the TV companies want major college football they will have to negotiate with the single conference.
Within the single conference, there will be divisions. Expect the divisions to be regional. This will allow for efficient use of resources, create more natural rivals (or recreate one's that have been split by conference realignment). It will also help with another issue, attendance. As all the money is pooled there will no longer be the need for conferences to be spread out to garner more TV markets.
Also, expect more than 64. I would suspect more likely in the range of 75-80 teams. There may be some left out, but I do not suspect a lot. Why cut out fans when you can make money off them instead?
Look for 7-8 divisions of 10-11 teams. Schedules will be round robin (double round-robin in basketball).


This post has more fresh thinking in it than the entire article by Deace. Yawn. Where are the predictions about the "premier league" concept where teams move up and down between higher and lower? That is an idea that Bowlsby and Pollard are talking about. Seems pretty lame to not even address it.
 

cygrads

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Sorry Steve but this is an out-of-date theory. The super-conferences that we see now are just step to the ultimate end of one giant "conference." The single conference model will allow the schools to leverage the most out of TV money. In essence, if the TV companies want major college football they will have to negotiate with the single conference.
Within the single conference, there will be divisions. Expect the divisions to be regional. This will allow for efficient use of resources, create more natural rivals (or recreate one's that have been split by conference realignment). It will also help with another issue, attendance. As all the money is pooled there will no longer be the need for conferences to be spread out to garner more TV markets.
Also, expect more than 64. I would suspect more likely in the range of 75-80 teams. There may be some left out, but I do not suspect a lot. Why cut out fans when you can make money off them instead?
Look for 7-8 divisions of 10-11 teams. Schedules will be round robin (double round-robin in basketball).
I agree I think this is probably what should happen - leave the NCAA behind and create an independent division that shares all media revenue equally. Take the top 80 schools and split them up into 8 regional conferences of 10 schools each and go to a 8 team playoff to max out revenue.
 

HoopsTournament

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Do you really think Texas will be happy playing ALL of their away games up north? No way.

I'd bet Texas ends up in the Pac 12, and ND goes B1G.

As for Deace, I agree that CF doesn't need his input, they have better writers than him on their own staff IMO.

I do think if the NCAA, or whoever ends up being the governing body in the future, cares at all about the student athlete, they will have to eventually tear this whole thing down and start over by arranging conferences geographically. I just hope ISU makes it in if they do.
Notre Dame is contractually obligated to join ACC if they join a conference in the next 20 years.

Texas is not joining the Pac 12 that has a conference network that makes less per school than Cyclones.tv.

NCAA Is the schools that make up the organization. That won't change even if the P5 schools break off. They will still be driven by money because it would be suicide not to be.
 

Sigmapolis

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I do think if the NCAA, or whoever ends up being the governing body in the future, cares at all about the student athlete, they will have to eventually tear this whole thing down and start over by arranging conferences geographically. I just hope ISU makes it in if they do.

I think that eventually happens.

If it happens at 64, we are on the bubble. Right on the line.

If it happens with 80 or 100 teams, we'd be fine.

Comes down to if the current "Big 12 expansion" teams (i.e. Cincinnati, BYU, Memphis, Houston, UCF, those kinds of schools) are "in" or "out" then.
 

jdoggivjc

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I don't understand why some people think that ISU, KSU, and TTU, all larger public schools, will be left out, but Boston College, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt will fly through. Big 12 has a better financial situation than the ACC.

I don't know for sure, but I would not be surprised if the Big 12 schools total tier 3 revenue is significantly more than the ACC will make on their network.

Because after the ACC got promises their TV network (remains to be seen how legitimate that is), their conference stabilized. At that point it means only the Big 12 is left unstable. Which means unless there is total realignment across the board it's only Big 12 schools that are vulnerable.

First, Vanderbilt is SEC, so unless the whole NCAA is blown up they have nothing to worry about. In a conference full of academic shame, they are a bright spot. They are the equivalent to the homely girl that is accepted to a sorority because it boosts the sorority's GPA.

Boston College and Wake Forest belong to the ACC, and as I just got done saying, unless that brand new conference network promise falls through, the ACC isn't going anywhere so they have nothing to worry about.

So bottom line is it comes down to the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma can go pretty much wherever they want. Kansas, unless the state government tethers K-State to them, likely has little to worry about, either.

Baylor, with its recent scandal which has sports stations across the nation mocking them, may have waysided themselves.

TCU has limited options - as in they're hoping and praying the ACC wants them. Otherwise it was a short return to relevance. The Pac-12 doesn't want religious schools, the Big 10 scoffs at their academics, and the SEC already has A&M. Doesn't look good for them.

OSU has academic issues but Pickens money. If they can't tether themselves to OU to get into the SEC the Pac 12 may overlook the academics.

TT is kind of in the same boat as OSU, but without Pickens money and worse academics. They will have a harder time.

K-State is in an even worse position than TT because they're in Kansas and they're academics are bad. They are more likely to get KU left out of the equation if the Kansas government tethers them than they are likely to be picked up somewhere.

West Virginia is just screwed. If the ACC or SEC wanted them, they'd be there already instead of in the Big 12. I think they're getting a raw deal in this.

Then there's us. While the media scoffs at us (and a good chunk of our fans are brainwashed by it), I think the decision-makers and the fans know better. When the Big 10 can't pull in Texas or Oklahoma because neither school wants to play outdoor games in Minneapolis, Lincoln, Iowa City, or Madison in November (considering neither school will play in Ames under such circumstances), where else are they going to go? In spite of what happened with Nebraska, academics matter with the Big 10, and if you take Texas and OU out of the equation that pretty much leaves us and KU. The Big 10 will not be taking K-State or WVU. Not to mention I've had numerous U of M, MSU, and OSU fans in the Detroit metro tell me that ISU should be part of the Big 10 (never mind what that ****head radio host Mike Valenti here has to say, considering he is 100% convinced Texas and OU will belong to the Big 10 within 5 years).

But say the Big 10 doesn't happen - go look at my Pac 12 post from above.

And if that doesn't happen, then suddenly the ACC and SEC schools are running out of decent options.

ISU is going to be just fine - we have too much to offer. You all need to stop being brainwashed by the media.
 

Clonehomer

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Texas and Tech go to the PAC12 as a Texas political package. I really think when it's all said and done the Texas legislature will not allow a public institution to drop while they have a bargaining chip in Texas. Houston also has an opportunity here, but I really think the PAC stays at 14 to avoid religious institutions. TCU has tried their best to shed that C in their name so they may be a partner with Houston.

Big10
Kansas is the no brainer here. They get KC included in the higher tiered BTN pricing. With the ACC surviving, that really only leaves ISU as an AAU school.

SEC
OU and OSU come as a package.

ACC
I think they take UCONN here to go along with ND.

That leaves KSU, Baylor, and TCU (maybe) from the Big12. BYU is also left in the dark.

Where I think this could get interesting is if ND negotiates with the ACC to allow them to the Big10. I don't know how much the Big10 wants them, but if it were down to ISU or ND I could see them ignoring the lack of research. That's the scenario that I could see ISU left out.

I think it also matters who starts the domino's. Would a conference start negotiating with Texas prior to the expiration of the GOR (or now) to start this, or will there be at least an opportunity for the Big12 to explore a TV deal to survive?



**Another crazy scenario all together**
Big12 stays at 10 now. Gets good TV deal in 2024. PAC12 blows up. Big12 takes UA, ASU, USC, UCLA, Stanford, and California.

Big10 takes Oregon and Washington.

Utah, Colorado, Washington St., and Oregon St join a now high level P5 MWC.

Really, outside of OU and UW going to the Big10, this is actually pretty clean. The question is where does the SEC go? Adding those 6 schools makes the Big12 strong enough to avoid getting poached.
 

tim_redd

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Do you think the NCAA ever gets the guts to say "We're holding a football championship" similar to the NIT/NCAA split years ago? It never made sense to me that this is the one sport where they don't stage a championship game.
 

Gorm

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Bet Texas can't wait for those trips to Pullman Washington.

For reference, both Ames and Manhattan KS, are more than TWICE the population without students...
 

cyIclSoneU

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Do you think the NCAA ever gets the guts to say "We're holding a football championship" similar to the NIT/NCAA split years ago? It never made sense to me that this is the one sport where they don't stage a championship game.

Yes, I think it's only a matter of time. The NCAA doesn't need the bowls for the playoff system. I can see the bowl system surviving for the majority of teams, but the NCAA taking over a (likely 8-team) playoff and cutting out the bowls so it can keep all the money for itself.

That doesn't mean they will have to move sites or anything, just change the name from "Orange Bowl" to "NCAA Football Playoff Quarterfinal at New Miami Stadium" or whatever
 

Cloneman89

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PAC 12 taking Baylor? Are you serious? They would be better off taking Boise. And the B1G taking ISU over KU because they got UT? HA! UT will go to PAC as they feel superior and PAC is snooty about academics. I can see academic fraud SEC taking OU and OSU. ACC will take the convicts at Uconn over WVU - they already have Pitt and they have shown to be a loser already. Cannot see why everybody is focused on this 64 team BS. Money will not be left on the table. 5 Conferences of 14 or 6 conferences of 12 makes as much sense with top teams getting byes to "reward" them for their stellar regular season. Limiting the TV exposure is silly and leaves too many fans resentful and possible racketeering accusations - which mucks up the whole scam. Sports writers need to throw out bs to be paid. This should have gone in file 13/round file/dumpster fire before it ever got here!
 
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cc1091

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It is interesting to me that Deace has arrived at the same conclusion that I have: That the process is now getting close to the point where enough teams need to be eliminated in order to create a four conference 16 team scenario. This is the first step in the march toward what will be the final solution: which is a super conference playing for the National Title, with multiple sub conferences that have little or no chance for the National Title. This was a proposal that I first heard of in the mid 1980s when the SWC was failing and the first rumors of the Big 8 becoming the B12 came blowing in the wind.

Notable about Deace's list:
Texas to B1G? (not a chance)
Iowa State included in B1G (just as I have it, but I fear it is a dream)
No Texas Tech anywhere in Deace's list.
No U Conn (U Conn Basketball is very good).

MY list of the four conferences differs a little from Deace's:
- Big 10 (currently 14 teams, 2 openings); I optimistically place Iowa State in the B1G and move Missouri from SEC to B1G (as Missouri has a huge rivalry with Illinois). Unfortunately I also realize that Notre Dame will somehow be included in one of these conferences. The B1G could be a factor, but at this point I'm honoring its current non-football allegiance to the ACC.
- SEC; (currently 14 teams, 2 openings) I moved Missouri to B1G, and dropped Vanderbilt entirely, creating 4 openings here. Moved to the SEC from former B12 is Oklahoma, Texas, and from the ACC, Florida State and Wake Forest. FYI - THIS will ultimately be the base conference for the future Super Conference.
-ACC (currently 15 teams with Notre Dame competing in all but Football, 1 opening) moved Florida State and Wake Forest to SEC, Dropped Boston College. The removals here create three new openings to add to the one existing for a total of four. To this, I added UConn, Texas Tech, Texas Christian, West Virginia.
- PAC 10 (Currently 12 teams, 4 openings) no removals. Added Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State.

I'm not yet settled with the ACC/SEC alignment with those Texas teams and the Alantic coast teams.. Probably some better natural alignments.
Teams mentioned for BCS (or are currently in a BCS conference) that were left off MY list: Boston College, Vanderbilt, U of S. Florida, U of Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, BYU, Boise, U of Cincy. Unfortunately there could be any number of reasons set forth for any one of these schools to replace Iowa State.
Deace and I agree about these teams being left out of any BCS conference under this scenario: USF, Houston, Memphis, Boise, U of Cincy.


THE BIG 12 adding any teams to the B12 will change the dynamics here entirely. Perhaps this is why the B12 is actively working on adding teams (as the alternative is oblivion just like the SWC).
 

aeroclone

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Why the hell would Texas leave for the PAC? Less money, less exposure, more travel. They can do whatever they want. B1G or keeping the B12 together both seem more appealing. I would say the same for SEC but I know things are weird with them and ATM. I think even the ACC is more appealing than the PAC for Texas, especially with ND involved.

The PAC is not going to have a lot of great options if they need to get to 16, which is why I agree that it could be the safety net for ISU if it comes down to that.
 

isucy86

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I think college football is facing a few crucial questions. Is there a movement toward revenue sharing among all current P5 conferences. I don't know if it is healthy for CFB if the Big10 and SEC schools are making 50%+ more revenue than the ACC, Big12 or Pac12. That said, maybe more revenue doesn't correlate to National Championships. So maybe schools like Florida State, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Oregon are willing to fall farther behind in the money grab.

3rd Tier Rights. All schools are looking to maximize their revenue. IMO the decisions by schools like Ohio State and Texas to sell alcohol shows that even a few million dollars additional revenue is a big deal to two of the richest schools in college athletics. How long before schools like Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Bama, Florida State, etc question why they have given up their third tier rights. Or why should schools like Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers, Boston College, Wake Forrest, Oregon State, etc make as much as the blue bloods of CFB. Instead of 4x16, why not 4x10 divisions? More money for OSU, Texas, etc

ESPN/FOX Role. Do CBS and NBC Sports decide to be major players in college football programming? Or does the model change and somehow Amazon or Netflix become players? ESPN has made a long term play with the SEC and ACC Networks. What is their direction in the next round of Big10 and Big12 rights fees. FOX was agressive with the recent Big10 rights package. To counter ESPN's agreement with the SEC/ACC, does FOX think it could create the 3rd, maybe 2nd best conference by merging the 16 best among the Pac12/Big12. IMO Texas and OU would rather play USC, UCLA, Stanford and Oregon than Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Florida State, Clemson, etc. The key is FOX has to see the value in the merger and pay SEC money for a conference where the core is Texas and California schools. Plus states like Colorado, Arizona, Washington and Oregon that show population growth.

4 x 16. Why are 8 team divisions with unbalanced schedules the best solution? IMO wouldn't 6 x 11 make more sense. Play the other 10 teams in your division and play two "pre-season" games to prepare for the division season. The 6 division winners, plus two at-large teams earn a birth to an 8 team playoff with the first round at the top 4 seeds campuses.
 
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