Seasons Predictions - Post your Win chance for each game
- Thread starter Cyclophile1
- Start date
I like this schedule and the team can work with it. Easier teams are first which means chance at having momentum before going against the TCU and Baylor, and Texas and OSU have to come here in the cold weather.
i think we win against UNI and KU. That's it as far as I'm concerned for sure fire wins. Other toss ups include Toledo, Texas Tech, Iowa, Kansas State, and Texas. It almost assuredly won't happen, but if ISU were to win all of those we'd be 7-4 playing at WVU to go 8-4. That's a realistic possibility, but also best case scenario.
i don't think ISU makes a bowl game because it loses too many of the toss ups.
i think we win against UNI and KU. That's it as far as I'm concerned for sure fire wins. Other toss ups include Toledo, Texas Tech, Iowa, Kansas State, and Texas. It almost assuredly won't happen, but if ISU were to win all of those we'd be 7-4 playing at WVU to go 8-4. That's a realistic possibility, but also best case scenario.
i don't think ISU makes a bowl game because it loses too many of the toss ups.
UNI: 80%
Iowa: 70%
Toledo: 70%
KU: 95%
Tech: 50%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 1%
Texas: 50%
OU: 3%
OSU: 25%
KSU: 20%
WVU: 30%
Iowa: 70%
Toledo: 70%
KU: 95%
Tech: 50%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 1%
Texas: 50%
OU: 3%
OSU: 25%
KSU: 20%
WVU: 30%
I see a lot of people aren't familiar with Toledo. I would put that game lowest on the win% of the first 4. Doc's post would be about what I'd say.
If you give 0% on any game you need to stop following ISU. If you really think there is no chance of beating any team on our schedule that stinks. Let me just give you some games in the past that seemed like 0% chance games:
1990 at OU
1992 vs NU
1998 at UI
2009 at NU
2010 at UT
2011 vs OSU
There are others. Don't EVER tell my Cyclones they can't win.
If you give 0% on any game you need to stop following ISU. If you really think there is no chance of beating any team on our schedule that stinks. Let me just give you some games in the past that seemed like 0% chance games:
1990 at OU
1992 vs NU
1998 at UI
2009 at NU
2010 at UT
2011 vs OSU
There are others. Don't EVER tell my Cyclones they can't win.
UNI: 75%
Iowa: 55%
Toledo: 60%
KU: 80%
Tech: 25%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 5%
Texas: 45%
OU: 5%
OSU: 25%
KSU: 40%
WVU: 40%
Iowa: 55%
Toledo: 60%
KU: 80%
Tech: 25%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 5%
Texas: 45%
OU: 5%
OSU: 25%
KSU: 40%
WVU: 40%
UNI: 80%
Iowa: 60%
Toledo: 70%
KU: 80%
Tech: 40%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 5%
Texas: 35%
OU: 5%
OSU: 20%
KSU: 50%
WVU: 50%
So that's a total of 5 wins even. Seems about right. Maybe a little high.
Iowa: 60%
Toledo: 70%
KU: 80%
Tech: 40%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 5%
Texas: 35%
OU: 5%
OSU: 20%
KSU: 50%
WVU: 50%
So that's a total of 5 wins even. Seems about right. Maybe a little high.
Last edited:
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
UNI: 45%
Iowa: 60%
Toledo: 50%
Kansas: 80%
Texas Tech: 50%
TCU: <1%
Baylor: <1%
Texas: 20%
Oklahoma: <1%
Oklahoma State: 5%
Kansas State: 5%
West Virginia: 20%
Picking that number for UNI based on our recent track record of ugly games/losses against FCS schools, and to balance out some outrageous percentages on the confident side of things.
We may win that game, but it's not the lock many are telling themselves that it is.
Iowa: 60%
Toledo: 50%
Kansas: 80%
Texas Tech: 50%
TCU: <1%
Baylor: <1%
Texas: 20%
Oklahoma: <1%
Oklahoma State: 5%
Kansas State: 5%
West Virginia: 20%
Picking that number for UNI based on our recent track record of ugly games/losses against FCS schools, and to balance out some outrageous percentages on the confident side of things.
We may win that game, but it's not the lock many are telling themselves that it is.
Why is everyone so low on our chances against KSU. It's Snyder's "worst" team in a long time. They are rarely way more talented than us. They win because of the fact they don't beat themselves. I think it's a 55% or so game. It's now or never against Skeletor.
I had a genius stats prof when I got my MBA. He said that when you have to predict probabilities, in the absence of actual data of prior outcomes, then there are only 4 useful %s to consider.
10% = very unlikely, but not impossible
40% = less likely than 50/50 but close
60% = more likely than 50/50 but close
90% = very likely but not metaphysical certitude
I have found this to be very practical to use in everyday life and work, because you usually don't have any prior outcomes data.
UNI: 90%
Iowa: 60%
Toledo: 40%
Kansas: 90%
Texas Tech: 40%
TCU: 10%
Baylor: 0%
Texas: 60%
Oklahoma: <0%
Oklahoma State: 40%
Kansas State: 40%
West Virginia: 40%
Yes it looks like I broke my own rule on BU and OU, but I consider those metaphysical certitude losses. I do think we have a punchers chance at home vs TCU.
This all leads me to think 5-7. I think the O-line will be better and the team will be competent. We'll know after UNI.
10% = very unlikely, but not impossible
40% = less likely than 50/50 but close
60% = more likely than 50/50 but close
90% = very likely but not metaphysical certitude
I have found this to be very practical to use in everyday life and work, because you usually don't have any prior outcomes data.
UNI: 90%
Iowa: 60%
Toledo: 40%
Kansas: 90%
Texas Tech: 40%
TCU: 10%
Baylor: 0%
Texas: 60%
Oklahoma: <0%
Oklahoma State: 40%
Kansas State: 40%
West Virginia: 40%
Yes it looks like I broke my own rule on BU and OU, but I consider those metaphysical certitude losses. I do think we have a punchers chance at home vs TCU.
This all leads me to think 5-7. I think the O-line will be better and the team will be competent. We'll know after UNI.
UNI: 60%
Iowa: 50%
Toledo: 40%
KU: 70%
Tech: 25%
TCU: 2%
Baylor: 1%
Texas: 30%
OU: 1%
OSU: 30%
KSU: 20%
WVU: 33%
Iowa: 50%
Toledo: 40%
KU: 70%
Tech: 25%
TCU: 2%
Baylor: 1%
Texas: 30%
OU: 1%
OSU: 30%
KSU: 20%
WVU: 33%
UNI: 70%
Iowa: 70%
Toledo: 65%
KU: 80%
Tech: 48%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 2%
Texas: 56%
OU: 2%
OSU: 40%
KSU: 51%
WVU: 45%
This is how I feel about the schedule.
Iowa: 70%
Toledo: 65%
KU: 80%
Tech: 48%
TCU: 5%
Baylor: 2%
Texas: 56%
OU: 2%
OSU: 40%
KSU: 51%
WVU: 45%
This is how I feel about the schedule.
This is awesome. Any other entries? I'll post the group averages when the last ones come in. We're at 29 entries so far, so that's decent. Would be better if it were higher, but that's high enough be be pretty stable.