Returning Core Contributors and Team Success The Next Year

[megamanxzero35]

This has been something that has been on my mind most of the season and I think even posted about it here. We were very fortunate in having guys like Niang, Monte, Naz, and Thomas for 4-5 seasons. Especially because those guys had very clearly defined roles and performed them at a very high level. This years team added 6 new players from transfers and freshman. So I decided to a chart out all the major contributors and see just how much returned on each team since Hoiberg's first year.

Going down each column you can see the major players from each team starting with Hoiberg's first tourney team. I also included the noteworthy guys from Fred's first team. Every transfer was included. I didn't include guys that barely played and transferred out after a year or two(Clayton Custer, Simeon Carter, etc). If a guy played in 95% of the games they could have, they were included.

Some interesting notes.

• What is probably widely considered the best team in the last 10 years, the Ejim-Kane-Niang team, had 4 newcomers to compliment Senior Ejim, Sophomore Niang, Sophomore Naz. 2 Freshman, a Juco, and a grad transfer. What really helped this yeam with the massive roster turnover is having excellent senior leadership from Ejim and an All-American grad transfer in DeAndre Kane.
• Fred's first NCAA tourney team had 5 new players. 4 transfers and a Juco. What helped this team with again massive roster influx was 4 sit out transfers redshirting together.
• The team that had the highest expectations imo was the Niang junior year team. 5 returning players, 2 sit out transfers eligible to play. Only new major contributor was BDJ as a grad transfer. We all know how this year ended.
• The 2016-2017 team was one of my favorites, 4 elite senior guards. Again, tons of returning talent and guys who had been in the program for years.
• 2017-2018 is when we start to see the imbalance of the roster hurt the team. Only 3 returning players, 2 of them were bench players and one only became a starter midway through the Big 12 season. 5 new players were added to the roster with 3 of them being grad transfers and 2 freshman.
• This year again, we saw major roster movement. 3 guys graduate and 1 transfer out(Jakolby Long). 4 returning starters from the 2017-2018 team but 1 of them is injured and out the entire year, one is injured and missed 99% of the non-conference, another is suspended to the start the year and comes off the bench when he returns and the last is NWB. So instead of rolling with a lot of returning starters, 2 transfers and 2 freshman start.

So what is my point with all of this? I'm not fully sure because I think you could read this multiple ways. But I do think it is very interesting that we've only had 1 year where we added 4 or more new major pieces and had a terrific year. That being the 2013-2014 team. Probably due in part a lot senior Melvin Ejim and Georges Niang setting a pretty strong tone.

Expectations probably got way to high for this team after beating KU like a drum by 17 at home. For 5 consecutive seasons, if we needed a bucket we had Niang or Morris to stop a scoring drought. That's a huge benefit to not having massive roster turnover. I believe Prohm wanted/thought Lindell could be that guy but I really think Lindell's injury to start the season really hampered his progress to being that guy. Lindell still gets into the lane through pure athleticism but loses control of either the ball or himself by the time he is 3 feet from the hoop.

 

[SCyclone]

Excellent idea, and good stuff. Of course continuity is always important, save for those "one and done" teams that bring in 3-4 McDonald's All-Americans every class.

I think CSP is more interested in building that continuity with high school kids, and augmenting that with impact transfers. CFH seemed to lean more and more on the transfers as time went on, and of course let recruiting die when he saw his chance to leave. (Not making a judgement there, just commenting.)

Next season will probably depend to a great degree on Wigginton's fate. If he stays, the team will doubtless be much stronger. If he leaves, it opens up minutes for a younger player, but upperclassmen are invaluable - especially in March.

 

[WastedTalent]

With Wigginton, I think Prohm is in a tricky spot. I think there's no doubt when recruiting him, part of Prohm's pitch was: look what I have been able to do with previous pgs Morris, Payne, and Canaan. Come in here, play right away, raise your NBA stock, and go pro after a couple seasons.

Problem is Wigginton hasn't really raised his stock to a level where he's comfortably in the league. So it becomes an issue of is Prohm going to be honest with him, and tell him he needs to come back? And is Wigginton going to be humble enough, or trust Prohm enough that he can still raise his stock, and come back for another year.

 

[JimmyChitwood]

With Wigginton, I think Prohm is in a tricky spot. I think there's no doubt when recruiting him, part of Prohm's pitch was: look what I have been able to do with previous pgs Morris, Payne, and Canaan. Come in here, play right away, raise your NBA stock, and go pro after a couple seasons.

Problem is Wigginton hasn't really raised his stock to a level where he's comfortably in the league. So it becomes an issue of is Prohm going to be honest with him, and tell him he needs to come back? And is Wigginton going to be humble enough, or trust Prohm enough that he can still raise his stock, and come back for another year.

Wigginton at this moment in time is not ready for the league. He needs to learn ball handling, defense better outside shooting. His upside is enormous but he still has to much to work on.
Hopefully CSP is honest with him and tells him what he needs to work on. Maybe he can get another evaluation from the NBA after this season.

 

[Sigmapolis]

This program has had a lot of turnover --

But that is how college basketball works. Guys roll out, new ones phase in.

Is this significantly worse or better than other peer programs?

Two things I did want to note...

(1.) I think Prohm is trying to build up a program based on experience and "staying old." Even now, though, four years into his regime, that is proving rather difficult.

(2.) We are not much of a developmental program. How many guys have we had who barely played as a freshman or sophomore eventually contribute as a junior or senior? You can argue the guys on redshirt years have improved, but besides Naz, I cannot think of a guy who pulled himself from the back of the bench to a major contributor during his career.

 

[Cyclonepride]

This program has had a lot of turnover --

But that is how college basketball works. Guys roll out, new ones phase in.

Is this significantly worse or better than other peer programs?

Two things I did want to note...

(1.) I think Prohm is trying to build up a program based on experience and "staying old." Even now, though, four years into his regime, that is proving rather difficult.

(2.) We are not much of a developmental program. How many guys have we had who barely played as a freshman or sophomore eventually contribute as a junior or senior? You can argue the guys on redshirt years have improved, but besides Naz, I cannot think of a guy who pulled himself from the back of the bench to a major contributor during his career.

How many guys from any program do that? I'd say not many. Most of the time, unless a guy is buried there due to sheer talent in front of him, if he's not playing early, he's probably not going to. I will say that Griffin and Lewis look like a guys who could play without the talent in front of them, and I think they can contribute next year.

 

[cycfan1]

This program has had a lot of turnover --

But that is how college basketball works. Guys roll out, new ones phase in.

Is this significantly worse or better than other peer programs?

Two things I did want to note...

(1.) I think Prohm is trying to build up a program based on experience and "staying old." Even now, though, four years into his regime, that is proving rather difficult.

(2.) We are not much of a developmental program. How many guys have we had who barely played as a freshman or sophomore eventually contribute as a junior or senior? You can argue the guys on redshirt years have improved, but besides Naz, I cannot think of a guy who pulled himself from the back of the bench to a major contributor during his career.

It is not overly common for someone to barely play as a freshman and sophomore - and improve at that school.
Its pretty easy to see when someone is not going to contribute.
Naz is very much an exception.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

I really think the missing piece on this year's team is confrontational leadership. Babb would be the ideal person to fit that role, but he doesn't strike me as having that in-your-face personality like Ejim or Niang or Naz had. Shayok has that steady, hard-working demeanor, but he also seems soft spoken.

I realize it's unfair of me to compare them to three greats, but we seem like this team needs that guy that's gonna grab his teammate by the front of the jersey and shake him awake.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Agree with so much here.

Also, I will continue to point this out until the end of time, but ISU will likely finish higher in the KenPom rankings this year than any year since he's started putting them out. So basically from an efficiency standpoint, this year's team is the best we've ever had.

You’re pointing at a moving target on defense. The defensive slide is a big reason why we’re losing. It started late enough that perhaps it won’t cost Hilton the KenPom banner, but it started early enough to cost us in regards to the Big 12 and seeding. If it continues it’ll prematurely end what was a promising season.

 

[VeloClone]

This program has had a lot of turnover --

But that is how college basketball works. Guys roll out, new ones phase in.

Is this significantly worse or better than other peer programs?

Two things I did want to note...

(1.) I think Prohm is trying to build up a program based on experience and "staying old." Even now, though, four years into his regime, that is proving rather difficult.

(2.) We are not much of a developmental program. How many guys have we had who barely played as a freshman or sophomore eventually contribute as a junior or senior? You can argue the guys on redshirt years have improved, but besides Naz, I cannot think of a guy who pulled himself from the back of the bench to a major contributor during his career.

What about the guy who got 16 minutes, 4 points, 3 rebounds and 1 1/2 assists a game as a sophomore getting 35 minutes, 10 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists a game since? He improved his 3 point shot from about 30% to about 38%.

 

[cyfan92]

There is a less than 1% chance of Wigginton playing NBA minutes next year. He is no where on any draft boards. In my opinion the key to next year's success is THT returning and getting a more consistent jump shot.

 

[madguy30]

I really think the missing piece on this year's team is confrontational leadership. Babb would be the ideal person to fit that role, but he doesn't strike me as having that in-your-face personality like Ejim or Niang or Naz had. Shayok has that steady, hard-working demeanor, but he also seems soft spoken.

I realize it's unfair of me to compare them to three greats, but we seem like this team needs that guy that's gonna grab his teammate by the front of the jersey and shake him awake.

I don't think Hali's that kind of personality, but I think he's a strong candidate to be a good leader in keeping things upbeat when it's tough, but that's a tough role for a freshman.

Actually iirc Niang seemed to take some time to adjust to that role his senior year. Just an observation but I just remember at first if they had the camera on the huddle he didn't look all that comfortable being a vocal leader. Dude was always 'vocal', just more in the snarky way toward opponents.

I'd also add that I thought LW would be that role this year but maybe it's just not in the cards.

 

[VeloClone]

I don't think Hali's that kind of personality, but I think he's a strong candidate to be a good leader in keeping things upbeat when it's tough, but that's a tough role for a freshman.

Actually iirc Niang seemed to take some time to adjust to that role his senior year. Just an observation but I just remember at first if they had the camera on the huddle he didn't look all that comfortable being a vocal leader. Dude was always 'vocal', just more in the snarky way toward opponents.

I'd also add that I thought LW would be that role this year but maybe it's just not in the cards.

I expected it out of Shayok but apparently I read him wrong.

 

[cycfan1]

I really think the missing piece on this year's team is confrontational leadership. Babb would be the ideal person to fit that role, but he doesn't strike me as having that in-your-face personality like Ejim or Niang or Naz had. Shayok has that steady, hard-working demeanor, but he also seems soft spoken.

I realize it's unfair of me to compare them to three greats, but we seem like this team needs that guy that's gonna grab his teammate by the front of the jersey and shake him awake.

Agree with this completely. Haliburton is this guy, but can't have this role as a freshman.
Need a Barry Brown type teammate that you can respect, yet be scared shitless he's going to hold you accountable.

 

[megamanxzero35]

I really think the missing piece on this year's team is confrontational leadership. Babb would be the ideal person to fit that role, but he doesn't strike me as having that in-your-face personality like Ejim or Niang or Naz had. Shayok has that steady, hard-working demeanor, but he also seems soft spoken.

I realize it's unfair of me to compare them to three greats, but we seem like this team needs that guy that's gonna grab his teammate by the front of the jersey and shake him awake.

Excellent wording. Confrontational leadership. I was struggling to figure out how to phrase that.

I do think Haliburton and Conditt can be that kind of leadership. It takes a pretty special player to come in and be that. CW has told stories about Ejim being that kind of guy. But in the last 10 years, that's is the only freshman we have ever heard of being that type.

 

[CloneGuy8]

With Lindell, he probably won't be a first rounder this year unless he goes Shabazz Napier this March. I could see someone taking him in the 2nd due to his athleticism, but that is still unlikely right now. He would be wise to return next year, but if he wants to make $ next year, then its probably in the G league or Europe.

 

[megamanxzero35]

This program has had a lot of turnover --

But that is how college basketball works. Guys roll out, new ones phase in.

Is this significantly worse or better than other peer programs?

Two things I did want to note...

(1.) I think Prohm is trying to build up a program based on experience and "staying old." Even now, though, four years into his regime, that is proving rather difficult.

(2.) We are not much of a developmental program. How many guys have we had who barely played as a freshman or sophomore eventually contribute as a junior or senior? You can argue the guys on redshirt years have improved, but besides Naz, I cannot think of a guy who pulled himself from the back of the bench to a major contributor during his career.

I fully agree on both points. I think we are getting there. A problem he had was Hoiberg's last couple recruiting classes and Prohm's first one he had to scramble to pull together.

Hoiberg's 2015 high school recruiting class consisted of Clayton Custer and Georgios Tsalmpouris. Those dudes each transfered after 1 year. Hoiberg didn't have a HS recruit when he left in 2016. Prohm wrangled up Simeon Carter, Brady Ernst, and Nick Noskowiak in the summer after getting the job. Nick never made it to campus, Brady Ernst left in 1 year, and Carter left in 2.

Talk about needing to dig out of crater.

But Prohm is getting there. In his next class he still has 2 of 3 recruits(Solomon Young and Cam Lard, Jakolby Young transferred) and Wiggington and Terrance Lewis are still here from his 3rd class. And I feel this last class of Haliburton, THT, Conditt, and Griffin will mostly be here for multiple years. That helps a ton.

 

[WastedTalent]

Wigginton at this moment in time is not ready for the league. He needs to learn ball handling, defense better outside shooting. His upside is enormous but he still has to much to work on.
Hopefully CSP is honest with him and tells him what he needs to work on. Maybe he can get another evaluation from the NBA after this season.

After last season, I thought about a comparison to former Maryland guard Melo Trimble. He was a possible one n done, then came back for his sophmore and junior year, after evaluations each year.

Melo 6-3 185 combo guard 32nd overall and 5th PG out of HS
Fr: 47% 2s 41% 3s 4 rbs 3 ast 2.5 to 16 pts
So:49% 2s 32% 3s 3.5 rbs 5 ast 3 to 15 pts
Jr:53% 2s 32% 3s 3.5 rbs 4 ast 3 to 17 pts

Lindell 6-1 185 combo guard 35th overall and 8th PG out of High School
Fr: 42% 2s 40% 3s 4 rbs 3 ast 3 to 17 pts
So:44% 2s 39% 3s 4 rbs 2 ast 2 to 13 pts

 

[Rabbuk]

There is a less than 1% chance of Wigginton playing NBA minutes next year. He is no where on any draft boards. In my opinion the key to next year's success is THT returning and getting a more consistent jump shot.

I've seen him in the mid 50s which is pretty much a kiss of death for an NBA career

 

[spitfyr36]

I dont think Prohm is the kind of guy to tell Wig he's ready when hes not.
He always struck me as a pretty straight forward kind of dude.