Athletic Article:
Welcome back, Conference Realignment. Oh, how we missed you. The leaks, the rumors, the politics, the backstabbing … there’s nothing on TV that can match you for sheer entertainment value.
But you know, it’s been a few years now. We’re more than a decade removed from Nebraska to the Big Ten and the ill-fated Pac-16. Some fans may be too young to remember that era, and others of you may just need a refresher course.
Texas and Oklahoma possibly joining the SEC, as the Houston Chronicle reported Wednesday, is an absolute bombshell. All three parties immediately issued intentionally vague non-denial denials. Something is clearly afoot.
But that doesn’t mean this is definitely happening, either. If there’s one golden rule of realignment, it is this: Believe everything and nothing.
Let’s try to get to the bottom of this Texas/Oklahoma thing, shall we? Here now, some answers to the most common questions you might be asking as we dive knee-deep into a potential seismic change to the college football landscape.
Q: Is this legit?
A: It sure seems so. While Texas A&M beat writer Brent Zwerneman’s report Tuesday blindsided most of the industry, sources have since told the
The Athletic that A) Texas has been exploring possible conference contingencies for some time. And B) The Big 12 recently initiated conversations with ESPN about extending its contract (which runs through 2025) only to be met with a tepid interest. Texas Tech’s president
hinted at such in May, saying, “ESPN and Fox are not interested in acting preemptively with regard to our contract.”
The timing of which lines up almost exactly with other sources that said they’d been hearing rumors about Texas and Oklahoma possibly leaving the Big 12 for “a couple months.”
Q: What are Texas and Oklahoma saying?
A: Texas issued a statement saying, “Speculation swirls around collegiate athletics. We will not address rumors or speculation.” Oklahoma issued a statement saying: “The college athletics landscape is shifting constantly. We don’t address every anonymous rumor.” Notice that neither of those statements include the words, “We’re happy to be members of the Big 12.”
Q: What is the SEC saying?
A: Commissioner Greg Sankey, who had the misfortune of
being at SEC media days radio row when the news broke, told a group of reporters, “I’m going to focus on the 2021 season, gentlemen.” Notice that did not include the words, “We’re perfectly happy to remain at 14 teams.”
Q: Why would Texas want to join the SEC? It can barely get to nine wins playing in the Big 12.
A: You mean, besides $$$? Texas fans have been growing apathetic over their lost decade-plus, and an 11 a.m. CT kick against Oklahoma State or Kansas State doesn’t rev up the fan base the way a 7 p.m. date with Alabama or LSU would.
Also, the sport is on the verge of ditching its four-team Playoff, where a 12-1 Big 12 champ is not guaranteed anything, to a likely 12-team Playoff where going even 9-3 against an SEC schedule might be good enough to earn an invite.
Finally, the fact that SEC will be turning over all of its TV rights to ESPN beginning in 2024 might make for an easier absorption of the ESPN-owned Longhorn Network than continuing in a league that’s split between ESPN and Fox.
Q: Why would Oklahoma want to join the SEC? It wins the Big 12 every year.
A: … It’s not clear that they do? This feels a lot like 2010, when Texas was the main driver of the Pac-16 discussions. Only later did we learn that Texas A&M was never fully in on the pact (and in fact left for the SEC a year later). But even if Oklahoma would rather remain in the 10-team Big 12, it knows it couldn’t stay in a depleted, nine-team league with no remotely equivalent blueblood.
Q: Why would the SEC want Texas and Oklahoma?
A: You mean, besides $$$? … Actually, there is no “besides.” While it’s universally accepted that the SEC is the premier football conference, it remains in a two-team race with the Big Ten for most lucrative athletics conference. And the Big Ten is currently ahead. The league earned $768.9 million in revenue in 2020, about $40 million more than the SEC. And while the SEC has already locked in a huge spike come 2024 for its Tier 1 package (moving from CBS to ESPN), the Big Ten’s deal comes up a year before that and will only widen its lead.
Suffice to say, a 16-team SEC with Texas and Oklahoma would jump ahead, possibly by a considerable margin.
Also: That 12-team Playoff. Sankey, one of the four members of the working group that authored the proposal, did so fully knowing his league would have a chance to send three or more teams a year. An even stronger SEC could grab still more berths.
Q: Are we sure all the current SEC members are on board with this?
A: Well, we know at least one that’s adamantly opposed. That would be Texas’ in-state rival.
Note the timing of Wednesday’s bombshell, which came from a Texas A&M beat reporter, just as Jimbo Fisher was taking the stage at SEC media days, where he sarcastically joked of Texas and Oklahoma, “I bet they would (like to join the SEC).” AD Ross Bjork also just happened to be in the building (note: ADs don’t usually attend media days) in time to declare, “There’s a reason why we left the Big 12. … We wanted to have a stand-alone identity in Texas.”
A&M, which loves lording its SEC membership over Texas, may be about to learn just how much clout it does or doesn’t hold, because it can’t unilaterally block a new member. Per SEC bylaws, it would take an 11-3 vote to approve expansion.
Q: Well, if Texas and Oklahoma are on board, and 11 SEC members support it, what could possibly stop this?
A: You must be new here.
It took Oklahoma State only a couple of hours to issue a stern, “If true, we would be gravely disappointed” statement. Expect much worse than that. The last time we went through this, in 2011, Baylor threatened to sue Texas A&M for leaving the Big 12. And just wait for the politicians to get involved. Legislators with ties to the schools being left behind will threaten to withhold funding. The governor of Texas famously helped Baylor get into the Big 12 originally in 1994, and the governor of Virginia got Virginia Tech an ACC invite in 2003.
The best way to blow up potential realignment is to let word get out before the contracts have been signed.
Q: But if this does happen, what becomes of the Big 12?
It becomes every man for himself.
An eight-team Big 12 without its two flagship programs would no longer command Power 5-level demand from TV networks. The conference could try to add some of the top Group of 5 programs (Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, etc.) — which it frankly should have done years ago to help prevent this very scenario — and recoup at least some of its value. Perhaps the Pac-12, now with a new commissioner, George Kliavkoff, would welcome some of the remaining members. And if it’s not interested, Mike Aresco’s AAC certainly would be. No more having to settle for “Power 6.”
It’s yet another reminder that football is all that really matters in realignment. Much like UConn’s prestigious basketball program got (briefly) relegated to the AAC when the old Big East imploded, it’s not inconceivable Kansas basketball could end up in the Mountain West.
Q: How will we know if this is really going to happen?
A: When the SEC holds a news conference. Until then, read every tweet with a cautious eye. Be leery of any story with the words “done deal” — especially if it also includes somewhere the phrase “barring a last-minute complication.”
Remember: Believe everything and nothing. And enjoy the ride.
