Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[CascadeClone]

Oh, it's private capital, not private equity. Totally different! Whew.

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With college sports at critical juncture, private equity groups pushing for their piece

College administrators are bracing for the new reality of sharing revenue directly with athletes as part of the terms of the House settlement agreement.

sports.yahoo.com

Oh I don't know. The right money facilitating the right things could be a boon for both college sports as well as ISU / Big12.

e.g. if $20B came in as a group thing that ALL the P5 (G5 too?) had a piece of, and then set up a governing body to run it all with fair rules to ensure competitive balance... that could be a great thing. You could do all kinds of sensible things with a actual governing body. Think if the NCAA had smart people with money and power, as opposed to what it actually is. Of course, the B1G and SEC would never agree to anything like it, since they have all the advantages now.

OTOH, if a dozen "near majors" (like FSU, A&M, Arkansas etc) sell out their future revenue streams in exchange for cash now... that kind of J.G. Wentworth deal should scare folks. The guys with the money are way smarter than the people at the university, guaranteed. Someone will get rooked.

 

[MugNight]

Private equity scares the hell outta me. Time and time again, groups come in and strip mine the organization at the expense of profits, profits, profits. The only rule is “number go up”. Customer experience goes down, product quality suffers, costs are cut yet the prices only seem to increase. Hmm.

It’s naive to think we aren’t already there, but we had better get this right. There’s hundreds of Larry Scotts out there who’d love to sink their teeth into something like this and run it into the ground.

 

[Trice]

Oh I don't know. The right money facilitating the right things could be a boon for both college sports as well as ISU / Big12.

e.g. if $20B came in as a group thing that ALL the P5 (G5 too?) had a piece of, and then set up a governing body to run it all with fair rules to ensure competitive balance... that could be a great thing. You could do all kinds of sensible things with a actual governing body. Think if the NCAA had smart people with money and power, as opposed to what it actually is. Of course, the B1G and SEC would never agree to anything like it, since they have all the advantages now.

OTOH, if a dozen "near majors" (like FSU, A&M, Arkansas etc) sell out their future revenue streams in exchange for cash now... that kind of J.G. Wentworth deal should scare folks. The guys with the money are way smarter than the people at the university, guaranteed. Someone will get rooked.

I don't even disagree with you but all I can think of when reading your response is this. I think the chances these people will be good stewards of their own money, let alone good stewards of the game as a whole, is a fantasy.

 

[CascadeClone]

Private equity scares the hell outta me. Time and time again, groups come in and strip mine the organization at the expense of profits, profits, profits. The only rule is “number go up”. Customer experience goes down, product quality suffers, costs are cut yet the prices only seem to increase. Hmm.

It’s naive to think we aren’t already there, but we had better get this right. There’s hundreds of Larry Scotts out there who’d love to sink their teeth into something like this and run it into the ground.

That's very true, but there are some outfits that just want the revenue stream and can even provide some value in terms of capital for growth initiatives. Lot of money out there that doesn't just want it all in bonds or the stock market, basically, family offices and such. They're in the minority for sure, but there are getting to be more of them, so that's good.

The ones that want to "buy / grow / flip" as fast as possible - those are the ones that have the deservedly terrible reputation. They short-term improve the bottom line, but not the company's actual operations or basis for long-term success. No value, and often damaging.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

2speedy1, If I am wrong, show me a link that says I am, along with the link that states the Big 12 will be bringing in $70 million per year per school at the end of the contract. You disagree, then prove it and lets see the links.

 

[Jer]

2speedy1, If I am wrong, show me a link that says I am, along with the link that states the Big 12 will be bringing in $70 million per year per school at the end of the contract. You disagree, then prove it and lets see the links.

Very easy to find those links - click on the below, they both take you to where it clearly states what you asked for.

SEIOWA CLONE is wrong link
Big 12 $70 mil/year link




I'm just playing, I don't even know what you guys are arguing about. But I felt like being an ass

 

[2speedy1]

You just keep digging this hole deeper and deeper, every link provided has shown that the B12 is going to peak out around $50 million, but you keep digging, "what about the new playoff money?" That money is going to be paid out to the conference of the teams in the playoff, not equally to the conferences. The B10 and SEC have ensured that they are going to get 8 to 9 teams a year into the playoff, while the ACC, B12 and maybe one smaller conference gets in the last 3 or 4 teams. So, the SEC and B10 is going to dwarf what the other two power conferences get in playoff money, the rich get richer and the ACC and B12 struggle to stay relevant.

That $80 to $100 million the B10 is getting is also before any playoff money, so while both estimates are just from media to televise the games, the B10 is going to get a hell of a lot more teams into the playoff on a yearly basis than the B12. They will be bringing in at least twice what we are by the end of the contract from TV and the playoff.

Still waiting for a link to showing that $70 million dollar media figure you were talking about.

The new CFP contract will pay the Big12 $12M per school, more than double the current payout at $5.5M. Then Yormark added a loophole in that if we have more expansion we qualify for more $. No one knows if or what that might be, but saying it wont happen by 2030 is wishful thinking.

So all the estimates for the Big 12 from last year included the 5.5M playoff money not the 12M+.

Again if we go by the last payout number officially released NOT ESTIMATED, which was $44M.
Then you add the $9M increase in the new contract, puts us at $53M. Then add the published increase of 6.5M, for the playoff. That puts us at $59.5M at minimum to start the contract, not including other increases.

By my estimate at the start of the contract we will be about 500K away from being closer to 70M than 50M at the end of the contract in 2031 as I predicted.

You are the one digging a hole believing we wont increase past our current payout in 7 years, something that has never happened since this system began. You for some reason dont understand that all those media sources you quote are paid to push the B1G and SEC superiority. And quotes from ADs are before some of the final numbers were decided or are because most ADs are not going to overestimate rather under estimate so when it comes in higher they look better and people are happier. Can you imagine if Pollard said we would get 70M and it came in at 60M, people would be pissed. But saying it is around 50M if it comes in at 60M people will be happy.

The reporters pushing the B1G and SEC superiority want to make the gap as big as possible, they want to make us look subpar. This has been the way it has been for years but for some reason you take what these people say as gospel. I dont. I just do math from what is published and dont rely on estimates or projections.

Again NONE of your links proved anything, Most if not all are outdated with old info and numbers. You might as well quote the Navigate estimate that is wildly inaccurate, missing actual numbers. And NONE of them talk about what the B12 payout will be in 2031, only what it will be when the new contract starts with the new members. But like I said you believe what you want I will believe what I want and move on.

Have a nice day.

 

[WooBadger18]

Oh, it's private capital, not private equity. Totally different! Whew.

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With college sports at critical juncture, private equity groups pushing for their piece

College administrators are bracing for the new reality of sharing revenue directly with athletes as part of the terms of the House settlement agreement.

sports.yahoo.com

Part of me wishes that they would just bring private equity in, make a super conference, say the athletes didn’t have to be students, etc. so that it would be so much easier to walk away. This death by 1000 cuts crap is exhausting.

It also makes me sad about how unorganized college fans are. I watch quite a bit of German soccer (it’s probably my favorite outside of college sports) and last year the organization that runs the top two leagues was looking to bring in private equity. The fans revolted. There were disruptions at multiple games each week (including some entertaining ways like remote control cars with smoke bombs driving on the field), and as a result the organization backed off from working with the private equity firms. But that probably couldn’t happen here because our fan bases aren’t organized enough

 

[2speedy1]

2speedy1, If I am wrong, show me a link that says I am, along with the link that states the Big 12 will be bringing in $70 million per year per school at the end of the contract. You disagree, then prove it and lets see the links.

Show me a link where it says they wont, that isnt a year old, with old numbers. Show me a link that is current with current numbers, that talks about the END of the contracts in 2031 not to start. You know because you are going by the end of contract estimate for the B1G, and comparing it to the beginning contract of the B12.

Im not going to keep arguing with you, I will agree to disagree and move on.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

The new CFP contract will pay the Big12 $12M per school, more than double the current payout at $5.5M. Then Yormark added a loophole in that if we have more expansion we qualify for more $. No one knows if or what that might be, but saying it wont happen by 2030 is wishful thinking.

So all the estimates for the Big 12 from last year included the 5.5M playoff money not the 12M+.

Again if we go by the last payout number officially released NOT ESTIMATED, which was $44M.
Then you add the $9M increase in the new contract, puts us at $53M. Then add the published increase of 6.5M, for the playoff. That puts us at $59.5M at minimum to start the contract, not including other increases.

By my estimate at the start of the contract we will be about 500K away from being closer to 70M than 50M at the end of the contract in 2031 as I predicted.

You are the one digging a hole believing we wont increase past our current payout in 7 years, something that has never happened since this system began. You for some reason dont understand that all those media sources you quote are paid to push the B1G and SEC superiority. And quotes from ADs are before some of the final numbers were decided or are because most ADs are not going to overestimate rather under estimate so when it comes in higher they look better and people are happier. Can you imagine if Pollard said we would get 70M and it came in at 60M, people would be pissed. But saying it is around 50M if it comes in at 60M people will be happy.

The reporters pushing the B1G and SEC superiority want to make the gap as big as possible, they want to make us look subpar. This has been the way it has been for years but for some reason you take what these people say as gospel. I dont. I just do math from what is published and dont rely on estimates or projections.

Again NONE of your links proved anything, Most if not all are outdated with old info and numbers. You might as well quote the Navigate estimate that is wildly inaccurate, missing actual numbers. And NONE of them talk about what the B12 payout will be in 2031, only what it will be when the new contract starts with the new members. But like I said you believe what you want I will believe what I want and move on.

Have a nice day.

You keep wanting to add in playoff payouts, what is next, donations by the fans to get the numbers up. You said $70 million from media payouts, we are not going to be anywhere close to that. While the B12 gets $12 million per school the B10 and SEC will get S21 million, if not more because the more teams you get in the more money your conference gets.

From the article.

The financial distribution for the expected 14-team playoff will look radically different. On an annual basis, for example, Big Ten and SEC schools will each be making more than $21 million -- a drastic increase from the nearly $5.5 million that schools in Power 5 conferences are currently being paid.

In the ACC, the schools will get more than $13 million annually and Big 12 schools will get more than $12 million each. Notre Dame is expected to get more than $12 million as well and sources told ESPN there will be a financial incentive for any independent team that reaches the CFP.

So the B10 already at $60 will be up to $80 to $100 in media payout by the end of the contract, plus another $21 million at least per school. You just cannot spin it any other way, the B12 will not be at $70 million without including ever dollar each school brings in, playoffs, denotations, BB rights everything.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Show me a link where it says they wont, that isnt a year old, with old numbers. Show me a link that is current with current numbers, that talks about the END of the contracts in 2031 not to start. You know because you are going by the end of contract estimate for the B1G, and comparing it to the beginning contract of the B12.

Im not going to keep arguing with you, I will agree to disagree and move on.

The Sun is going to rise in the West tomorrow, show me a link that it will not, that is some type of reasoning skill there. You have no links showing that the conference will be anywhere near $70 million per school, without adding in playoff money, but you keep digging that hole deeper. But you are right, it is a good time for you to quit, being totally wrong generally is.

 

[2speedy1]

You keep wanting to add in playoff payouts, what is next, donations by the fans to get the numbers up. You said $70 million from media payouts, we are not going to be anywhere close to that. While the B12 gets $12 million per school the B12 and SEC will get S21 million, if not more because the more teams you get in the more money your conference gets.

From the article.

The financial distribution for the expected 14-team playoff will look radically different. On an annual basis, for example, Big Ten and SEC schools will each be making more than $21 million -- a drastic increase from the nearly $5.5 million that schools in Power 5 conferences are currently being paid.

In the ACC, the schools will get more than $13 million annually and Big 12 schools will get more than $12 million each. Notre Dame is expected to get more than $12 million as well and sources told ESPN there will be a financial incentive for any independent team that reaches the CFP.

So the B10 already at $60 will be up to $80 to $100 in media payout by the end of the contract, plus another $21 million at least per school. You just cannot spin it any other way, the B12 will not be at $70 million without including ever dollar each school brings in, playoffs, denotations, BB rights everything.

NO I NEVER SAID 70M from media payouts, I said total, I have always said total, our media payout is going to be 31.7M, period. You must have comprehension difficulty or something because That is what I have said from the beginning!

Our total compensation right now is $44M, that is total, not just media. These are the numbers I have used from the beginning, and just added the new increases from new contracts. Simple, you just dont understand it apparently.

And the 100M estimates for the B1G usually include increased playoff payouts.

Finally yes we are at more than 12M for the playoff, and Yormark added a clause that said we would get more if we expand.

 

[CyCrazy]

Where did this 70 mil per school come from? Make believe land?

 

[2speedy1]

Where did this 70 mil per school come from? Make believe land?

Math

 

[CyCrazy]

Math

Ok that isnt an answer.

 

[2speedy1]

Ok that isnt an answer.

Big 12 total distributions:
16-17 34.8
17-18 36.5
18-19 38.8
19-20 37.7 Covid
20-21 34.5 Covid
21-22 42.6
22-23 44

44 + 9 = 53 New media contract increase (22M old, 31.7 new)
53 + 6.5 = 59.5 (increase in CFP contract distribution at minimum old 5.5, new at least 12)

2025=59.5 with no other increases, just released and documented amounts (NOT ESTIMATES).

Factoring an average increase of 2M per year for 6 years = 12M (historical average outside of covid)

59.5 + 12 = 71.5M in 2031 end of new contract. Keeping in mind there will likely be other increases, like the new WBB and other sports NCAA distribution contract increase that starts in Sept of this year (which is 3 times the old contract) Increases to conference championship contracts, Increases in advertising, increases with expansion clause in the CFP distribution, other increases that Yormark is said to be working on.

This is my belief that we will be close to 70M by the end of the new contract, and possibly higher with all the other increases. My believe is we will be closer to 70M than to 50M as @SEIOWA CLONE believes. This is all I have stated from the beginning, never have said we will get 70 from just media, and never said we would start at 70 in the new contract. That by the time we get to the end of our new contract in 2031 by my math we will be close to 70M, at least closer to that than 50M. Anyone can go back and look through the last few pages and see that is all I have claimed from the beginning, and is base on released numbers and my math. I even said if someone can show me where My math is incorrect to please do.

 

[Big_Sill]

@2speedy1 @SEIOWA CLONE

I'm not sure we really know right now.

If we are placing bets on if the Big 10 and SEC make double the Big 12 by 2030 or 2031... I'd bet that they do, and I'd feel pretty darn good about that bet given the trends.

 

[drmwevr08]

Private equity scares the hell outta me. Time and time again, groups come in and strip mine the organization at the expense of profits, profits, profits. The only rule is “number go up”. Customer experience goes down, product quality suffers, costs are cut yet the prices only seem to increase. Hmm.

It’s naive to think we aren’t already there, but we had better get this right. There’s hundreds of Larry Scotts out there who’d love to sink their teeth into something like this and run it into the ground.

Yay for capitalism!

 

[2speedy1]

@2speedy1 @SEIOWA CLONE

I'm not sure we really know right now.

If we are placing bets on if the Big 10 and SEC make double the Big 12 by 2030 or 2031... I'd bet that they do, and I'd feel pretty darn good about that bet given the trends.

Its possible. The problem is saying for sure they will is impossible.

As I have said there are way to many things that are changing to really know what is happening next week let alone the next decade. Also what I have said from the beginning. I said my estimates he said they absolutely would and gave incomplete links to prove his point.

He claimed it was an absolute, I disagreed. Here is my first response in this back and forth.

Over Double? In 2027? I have not seen that anywhere. They are speculated to get $80-100M by the end of their contract, not in year 3. And that wont be more than double the Big 12. And many of those estimates include estimated playoff bumps, where those are going to all, albeit at an uneven rate possibly.

A couple years ago people said the B12 was going to fall apart. Didnt happen.
Then they said the B12 was going to take a huge media pay cut. Didnt happen, we increased in new contract.
Then they said the P12 was going to get a giant contract from Apple or Amazon etc and the B12 was going to be left in the dust. Didnt happen.
They said the B12 was going to fall to number 5 conference. Didnt happen, we solidified our 3rd place spot and eliminated the 5th conference.

At this point we dont know what next week is going to bring, but I will hedge any bets on the sky falling until there is a lot more proof.

To which he replied he meant in 2030/31........etc. Which is still completely unknown but showed my math to say where I believed our pay would be estimated. He doubled down that I was wrong with old links that did not include documented increases along with other estimated increases.

This again was because he stated they would be making double by 2027, then changed it to the end of the contract in 2031 (moving the goalpost), which he said he has proof that we will only be making "about 50M" at that point, and gave old links that proved nothing. Which is where I showed my math and the reasoning for it.

The last report I saw was the B1G paid out an average of 58.8M or "around 60M", not the "More than 60M" the Athletic rag said.

The big 12 is currently getting mid 40s, including reductions for adding the first 4 teams, prior to new contract. Prior to any increases in the new contract and playoff. We will not be getting 40-50M in 2030, ours will significantly increase too. So I mean if you want to use todays payouts for us and theirs in 7 years, I guess you can say they "may" get double, not more than double. But for me I would rather compare what we may be getting at that time too. But as I said, things change constantly so thinking we have any idea what things will be in 2030 is crazy.

Personally I believe the Big 12 payouts will be in the neighborhood of 70M by that time, but that is just a guess looking at all things. If you look at all things you can see the possibility of that number being even higher than that, especially when you include all the things that are included in that B1G number people speculate.

 

[CyCrazy]

Big 12 total distributions:
16-17 34.8
17-18 36.5
18-19 38.8
19-20 37.7 Covid
20-21 34.5 Covid
21-22 42.6
22-23 44

44 + 9 = 53 New media contract increase (22M old, 31.7 new)
53 + 6.5 = 59.5 (increase in CFP contract distribution at minimum old 5.5, new at least 12)

2025=59.5 with no other increases, just released and documented amounts (NOT ESTIMATES).

Factoring an average increase of 2M per year for 6 years = 12M (historical average outside of covid)

59.5 + 12 = 71.5M in 2031 end of new contract. Keeping in mind there will likely be other increases, like the new WBB and other sports NCAA distribution contract increase that starts in Sept of this year (which is 3 times the old contract) Increases to conference championship contracts, Increases in advertising, increases with expansion clause in the CFP distribution, other increases that Yormark is said to be working on.

This is my belief that we will be close to 70M by the end of the new contract, and possibly higher with all the other increases. My believe is we will be closer to 70M than to 50M as @SEIOWA CLONE believes. This is all I have stated from the beginning, never have said we will get 70 from just media, and never said we would start at 70 in the new contract. That by the time we get to the end of our new contract in 2031 by my math we will be close to 70M, at least closer to that than 50M. Anyone can go back and look through the last few pages and see that is all I have claimed from the beginning, and is base on released numbers and my math. I even said if someone can show me where My math is incorrect to please do.

This is not facts, this is what you thnk or want to happen. Real life doesn't work this way.