Reading Nebraska’s woes never get old. Maybe in 20 years I might get bored by it, but for now keep it coming.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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Either this is Cal/Stanford's dream conference or they made a massive mistake by not kissing up to the Big 12 immediately.
Duke/UVA will get snatched by somebody but these other 8 could all very well be on the outside.
Add Northwestern and Vandy, Because we all know Big Ten and SEC want them out anyway
Their decline started when Texas and the rest of old Big 8 (KSU an exception) voted against unlimited partial qualifiers as a condition for the new B12. NU had a competitive advantage with unlimited partial qualifiers and once that stopped and those recruits cycled out by 1999, the party was over for them. Texas was the ringleader of that rule change which fueled the Tom Osborne hate towards Texas and a major reason why that eventually led him to proactively seek Big 10 membership.
I believe the decline started earlier. I think Tom Osborne saw the writing on the wall and got out while he could.
HEADED FOR A FALL? NEBRASKA MAY WIN ANOTHER NATIONAL TITLE, BUT THE DAYS WHEN SUCH A COLOSSUS RULED THE GAME ARE OVER
It was tempting enough to become enthralled with Nebraska'sbrilliance in its 62-24 Fiesta Bowl humiliation of Florida onJan. 2. It was impossible not to
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They shouldn't have fired Solich (for football performance-related reasons), but he was in-part a fall guy for systematic changes that were occurring imo.
The exact point Nebraska ceased to be a superpower was vs. Colorado in 2001.
Edit:
On the Wisconsin note, Nebraska has less talent in-state when compared to Wisconsin, so honestly it's probably easier to win at Wisconsin today. I just think if the Huskers were managed exceptionally well (+ NIL), they could probably do 9-11 wins a year.
It's not the Big 8 anymore, they don't have the premier S&C program, and they aren't the only team on TV. All the things that made them elite in the past are no longer advantages that they have.
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I love the Big 12 balance going forward. It is essentially a salary capped league with NO school clear and ahead.. Maybe the private school (TCU, BYU, BU) can fundraise better but it's not to the point that it's a competitive disadvantage..
Highest earning Big 12 school (2021/22 FYE) is Arizona at $124M, lowest is Houston at $78M.. Houston will jump a lot going from AAC money to Big 12 money, plus they have a sugar daddy.. Lowest P5 school is Colorado (pre-Prime) at $95M.
Now compare the delta in the $EC and B1G. Ohio St at $251M, Bama at $214M, Miss St at $110M, Maryland at $107M. Nearly $150M difference in the B1G and over $100M in the $EC!!
Of the 10 public reporting P5 schools, ISU is above the median and mean for the Big 12 (16). I think our endowment is about average as well
NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY
Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.
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Highest earning Big 12 school (2021/22 FYE) is Arizona at $124M, lowest is Houston at $78M.. Houston will jump a lot going from AAC money to Big 12 money, plus they have a sugar daddy.. Lowest P5 school is Colorado (pre-Prime) at $95M.
Now compare the delta in the $EC and B1G. Ohio St at $251M, Bama at $214M, Miss St at $110M, Maryland at $107M. Nearly $150M difference in the B1G and over $100M in the $EC!!
Of the 10 public reporting P5 schools, ISU is above the median and mean for the Big 12 (16). I think our endowment is about average as well
This is exactly what I've been saying for 3 years now. I know people want to chase the money to the Big 10 or something like that, but the new Big 12 is made for schools like Iowa State. No school has a clear advantage across the board.I love the Big 12 balance going forward. It is essentially a salary capped league with NO school clear and ahead.. Maybe the private school (TCU, BYU, BU) can fundraise better but it's not to the point that it's a competitive disadvantage..
NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY
Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.sports.usatoday.com
Highest earning Big 12 school (2021/22 FYE) is Arizona at $124M, lowest is Houston at $78M.. Houston will jump a lot going from AAC money to Big 12 money, plus they have a sugar daddy.. Lowest P5 school is Colorado (pre-Prime) at $95M.
Now compare the delta in the $EC and B1G. Ohio St at $251M, Bama at $214M, Miss St at $110M, Maryland at $107M. Nearly $150M difference in the B1G and over $100M in the $EC!!
Of the 10 public reporting P5 schools, ISU is above the median and mean for the Big 12 (16). I think our endowment is about average as well
TCU, Baylor, Tech, and Houston have a slight leg up in football simply from geographic terms, but they haven't shown it to be a big factor most years. Kansas is obviously elite in basketball with Arizona and ISU being in that next tier. All have good fan bases and higher ceilings than they're at.
I think this could be great for fan engagement. This kind of parity certainly helps the NFL. You always feel like you are a couple recruits or a good hire away from having a real shot.
Where I could see it hurting is that teams struggle to separate from the pack and it hurts us at playoff selection time. We will need teams that go on hot streaks for several years at a time to help us stay relevant in the playoffs. You need some of those teams that are projected to be great and then live up to it on the field. It is always harder to climb those rankings starting from the outside.
If you look at viewership as a reflection of popularity, I would first go after Syracuse and Georgia Tech as the best teams available under your analysis; followed by Miami to pair with Central Florida; then pickem from Pitt and Louisville, whichever West Virginia wants. Duke is a basketball school with nominal football TV following. I would not go over 20 teams, as even that is too big to manage.
The next size up for divisions is 24 with four six team divisions. Then the barn door is open and take Cal, Stanford, Duke and everyone else......Uff Da.
How far are we from:
Isolate the University football programs and become a semi-pro league with Las Vegas operations funding, pay NIL players and buy the best available, and have Vegas establish a 24 hour sports TV network to show all games. (Ha Ha Ha or not?)
I worry about parity a little with the new Big 12 due to the no round-robin scheduling. I guess we'll see how it works out, but it seems like divisional conferences eventually create power gaps (i.e. Big 12 North vs. South, B1G West vs. East, etc.)
I'll miss the round-robin.
For comparison, Iowa is $50-$100M in revenue apart from their elite peers in the Big 10 and are no longer able to hide in the Big 10 West... Versus ISU who will have an easier path to the playoff, is on equal footing to their peers, and has a basketball program HEAD AND SHOULDERS in a better position..
Are we in a better position than Iowa??
Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, USC, Oregon are all above Iowa (Assuming for USC). The peers below but close to them are Wisconsin, Washington, and Illinois. Wisconsin has been a LARGE step better than Iowa for awhile. Washington is located in a MAJOR MSA and has double the endowment. That puts Iowa at 8/16 in my pecking order with a 70 year old football coach and a 65 year old basketball coach that no one likes...
I also think Oklahoma has a good chance to be a loser in realignment, and I believe it was a good move by Lincoln Riley to take the payday and get out of Norman.
Brent Venables was a good assistant, but I have a feeling he could be Oklahoma's Frank Solich.
Historically, Oklahoma was good due to proximity to Texas in the Big 8. They are slowly undoing the foundation that made them great, and I don't think they have a lot of strategic advantages in the SEC.
Brent Venables was a good assistant, but I have a feeling he could be Oklahoma's Frank Solich.
Historically, Oklahoma was good due to proximity to Texas in the Big 8. They are slowly undoing the foundation that made them great, and I don't think they have a lot of strategic advantages in the SEC.
I do agree that parity has it's issues, but those can be overcome - there will usually be a standout team somehow. However, I think we're much less likely to see a football team go 9-0 or 8-1 in league play in the Big 12 now than ever before, which will pull those teams down in the rankings some. But, with an expanded playoff, we could possibly get 1.5 teams in on average, just with higher seeds.
The SEC is going to get more loaded with TN and LSU back on the rise. If A&M, TX, or OU can get going, that's going to put a lot of elite teams in play. But, just like with the Big 12, somebody has to lose so they can't all have only 1-2 losses in a given year. That increased level of competition will impact them as well and bring down some of the win/loss counts. They won't be penalized as much for a number of reasons.
The Big 10 will be stronger and that should give more competition to everybody, including tOSU, MI, and PSU - though they'll also get to play the former West teams more now. Again, more losses are likely for the top teams.
The end result is I think you'll see fewer teams go undefeated in all of the conferences. Except for the ACC, everybody but Clemson pretty much sucks right now.
Here's the new dynamic...
The SEC and Big 10 are going to be even stronger than before. That will continue to pump elite recruits into those programs, especially if the Big 12 is seen as a "lesser" level. The question is how much of a difference you see form over the next 5 years. The good news is it doesn't diminish the regular season any.
The SEC is going to get more loaded with TN and LSU back on the rise. If A&M, TX, or OU can get going, that's going to put a lot of elite teams in play. But, just like with the Big 12, somebody has to lose so they can't all have only 1-2 losses in a given year. That increased level of competition will impact them as well and bring down some of the win/loss counts. They won't be penalized as much for a number of reasons.
The Big 10 will be stronger and that should give more competition to everybody, including tOSU, MI, and PSU - though they'll also get to play the former West teams more now. Again, more losses are likely for the top teams.
The end result is I think you'll see fewer teams go undefeated in all of the conferences. Except for the ACC, everybody but Clemson pretty much sucks right now.
Here's the new dynamic...
The SEC and Big 10 are going to be even stronger than before. That will continue to pump elite recruits into those programs, especially if the Big 12 is seen as a "lesser" level. The question is how much of a difference you see form over the next 5 years. The good news is it doesn't diminish the regular season any.
I think there's a better chance that Venables is Oklahoma's Bill Callahan...
GT and Cuse will never be in the B12. I dont get your hard on for them.
He will make it 1 year in the Sec then he will get canned.
I'll always wonder what would've happened if the original Big 12 had kept everybody else out of Texas and then expanded west and east strategically when opportunity arose. Not sure if their payouts would match current Big 10/SEC but it would be close and they'd be 1 or 2 in talent base pretty clearly.
Frank Solich was not that bad of a coach. He was a short step below Osborn with 9 to 12 wins in 5 seasons and one 7 win season. Nebraska was spoiled by Osborn's last 5 seasons having 11 to 13 wins. None of the coaches following Solich had any 11 or 12 win seasons. Bo Pelini came closest to matching Solich's record. In his five seasons Scott Frost has won a whopping total of 16 games. Solich's last year was 2003. Nebraska did not go into the B1G until 2011.
Because Big 12 is not interested, or because they are SEC/B1G locks?
I definitely could see Syracuse slipping through cracks. I'm not sure they bring much more than a promoted UConn would if anything.
