Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

Andy Staples reported on the actual GOR text. It says School assigns the rights to broadcast “any athletic event emanating from the campus of School” for the period of the GOR.

So your idea would not work but if UNC wanted to play all road games…?

Perhaps Georgia Tech could join the B1G and have a schedule of only “away” games, but half of those “away” games were at the Falcons stadium.

Would need a good lawyer to actually say more here.

Ah, that's right. Thanks for that.

I should have remembered, because some think an employment ruling in Johnson vs NCAA schools could challenge the athletic event definition, among a host of many other aspects of the GOR.

The GOR issue seems to be more school vs school than schools vs ESPN at this point, or am I off? I think ESPN would amend the GOR if to their terms, and it is whether there are enough schools that like those terms.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

I'm sure all of that will be tried.

What I'm skeptical about is if the Pac/Big12/ACC/MWC all fade away into irrelevance or a lower division, that any of this will make people forget about the NFL and be a Rutgers fan instead. I'm also skeptical they are going to get all these people in Ohio and Alabama to suddenly be BIGGER fans of Ohio State and Alabama.

It's all consolidation and contraction where a few make a lot, it's not net long term growth.

There's no real world reason to think fans of the 80 programs being left behind are going to jump ship and be Illinois fans rather than NFL fans or fans of other sports or not sports fans at all. There's no real world reason to think people will choose this over the NFL or that NFL only fans will now be fans of both pro leagues.

It doesn't matter whether the 40-48 team Big 12/SEC has the grandfathered in crap football schools or not. The same would be true if they do a breakaway of 24-30 teams dropping the dead weight. It just doesn't make sense (other than for a small few who will make a lot in next 10-20 years before it fades). They are removing the key aspect that makes me a college football fan over pro football. I know I can't be some rare unicorn.

I'm already done watching this year outside of ISU. There's absolutely no way I would chose to be a UCLA fan (my closest super league team nobody cares about) over being an NFL fan or maybe watching more NBA basketball and international soccer. It's all about my alma mater and the community I grew up in, kill that and you kill the whole thing for me forever.

Media companies are in survival mode, they don't care about growth. ESPN and Fox are going to maximize current revenue and minimize production costs regardless of what that might do to the future fan interest.

 

[HFCS]

Who is arguing any of this except maybe the first line of your first sentence (and even there that's only a very few blowhards)

I don't know if you're allowing your fears to get the better of you or what.

This will certainly create haves and have nots in college football, but that has always been the case. Maybe it will create some new haves and some new have nots.

Will the Big 10 and SEC get a lions share of playoff opportunities? Yeah probably, but would that very likely not been the case anyway? The end result of realignment and NIL will result in Alabama and OSU's of the world being stronger, and harder for anyone outside of the Big 2 conferences being a consistent playoff threat due to being harder to retain breakout players for more than a year.

Take ISU for example. They weren't a consistent playoff threat anyway so that has no effect on them at all. Where it might have an effect is it might be harder to keep a Purdy for four years so sustained success might be tougher and it might be harder to retain good coaches but you'll be playing in a league with members facing the same difficulties so getting to the playoff might actually get easier while winning in the playoff got much harder.

I’m just saying this might not even be good for the haves in 20 or 30 years.

What minor league basketball or baseball team is a have?

 

[HFCS]

Take Iowa for example as well.

I wonder if he knows the CFL and Arena league standings off the top of his head.

 

[Clark]

Take Iowa for example as well.

Ok. I think Iowa will be mostly what they are now, maybe a little better on average but will be less likely to win a national title than they were previously. I think they'll be able to retain coaches and players for the most part but they're still going to get out recruited by the OSU's and Michigans (and now USC)

 

[AuH2O]

I understand the NFL kills all other sports but there are only 15-16 games a week. But how many college a weekend? Two different models. I don't have the numbers in front of me but the NCAA has to be way more gross?

Yes, it's spread out over many different networks and levels in college. But if Fox and CBS overlap in a given timeslot, those two might typically combine for 25-30M. If it's a single "game of the week" it might hit that on it's own. In college if you look at a given timeslot it varies wildly, but in a given time slot across all the networks, ESPNs, FS1s etc. I think you aren't going to typically be much more than 10M in the early slot, and maybe 15-20 in the late slot.

The simple way to look at it - if by taking a regionalized NFL slot on Sunday that has two games, you make two national games (one on Sun, one on Sat). The bottom line is competition from the other regional NFL game at the same time is going to be higher than college football as a whole most likely. And as long as that difference is greater than drag racing or whatever other crap CBS would put on Saturday if they have no CFB, it might make some financial sense.

Again, it's probably too big a lift, and too much political backlash for the NFL to work with CBS to circumvent the Sports Broadcasting Act, but I think it would interesting to see them try.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

The extra-cruel reality facing Oregon State right now

No Pac-12 schools were dealt a bigger or crueler blow with the USC-UCLA move to the Big Ten than Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers and Cougars have absolutely no leverage in all of this. They're helpless and utterly dependent on other schools and other events.…

trojanswire.usatoday.com

 

[simply1]

I’m just saying this might not even be good for the haves in 20 or 30 years.

What minor league basketball or baseball team is a have?

I suspect it won’t be good, but by the time it’s figured out it might not be salvageable. We’ll see I suppose.

 

[HFCS]

Ok. I think Iowa will be mostly what they are now, maybe a little better on average but will be less likely to win a national title than they were previously. I think they'll be able to retain coaches and players for the most part but they're still going to get out recruited by the OSU's and Michigans (and now USC)

It’ll be interesting to see them outside of a 20+ Year successful football hire. Of course they’d have more cash to just keep hiring and firing until they like a fit.

Imagine a very plausible scenario in 15 years where Iowa and Minnesota don’t have good coaches, they’re bottom ten for a decade or so in the new 40 team structure, perennial losers because they clearly have among the least natural advantages.

ISU/KSU/KU football are now more like UNI in terms of interest. Nebraska can easily be in sane perennial loser boat as Iowa and Minn.

I fail to see how this does anything but help Vikings and Chiefs growth in the region.

 

[Clark]

Iowa's chances of winning a national title are less than my chances of being struck by lightning or of my being appointed as the Pope.

you find me a bookie willing to do 700,000 to 1 and I'll put down a dollar, even for Spencer ******* Petras.

It’ll be interesting to see them outside of a 20+ Year successful football hire. Of course they’d have more cash to just keep hiring and firing until they like a fit.

Imagine a very plausible scenario in 15 years where Iowa and Minnesota don’t have good coaches, they’re bottom ten for a decade or so in the new 40 team structure, perennial losers because they clearly have among the least natural advantages.

ISU/KSU/KU football are now more like UNI in terms of interest. Nebraska can easily be in sane perennial loser boat as Iowa and Minn.

I fail to see how this does anything but help Vikings and Chiefs growth in the region.

Does Fry not exist in your world or what? Past success doesn't necessarily predict future success but we're over 40 ******* years here.

And what 40 team structure are you talking about? Again you're setting up a strawman. I get the sense that you're a bit masochistic and enjoy thinking of the worst possible outcomes no matter how unlikely.

 

[Pope]

Iowa's chances of winning a national title are less than my chances of being struck by lightning or of my being appointed as the Pope.

Careful, I might nominate you as my replacement. I could use a break.

 

[carvers4math]

It’ll be interesting to see them outside of a 20+ Year successful football hire. Of course they’d have more cash to just keep hiring and firing until they like a fit.

Imagine a very plausible scenario in 15 years where Iowa and Minnesota don’t have good coaches, they’re bottom ten for a decade or so in the new 40 team structure, perennial losers because they clearly have among the least natural advantages.

ISU/KSU/KU football are now more like UNI in terms of interest. Nebraska can easily be in sane perennial loser boat as Iowa and Minn.

I fail to see how this does anything but help Vikings and Chiefs growth in the region.

Brain gonna coach for 40

 

[simply1]

The extra-cruel reality facing Oregon State right now

No Pac-12 schools were dealt a bigger or crueler blow with the USC-UCLA move to the Big Ten than Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers and Cougars have absolutely no leverage in all of this. They're helpless and utterly dependent on other schools and other events.…

trojanswire.usatoday.com

It’s really too bad because they’re quite similar to Iowa State.

 

[HFCS]

Iowa's chances of winning a national title are less than my chances of being struck by lightning or of my being appointed as the Pope.

you find me a bookie willing to do 700,000 to 1 and I'll put down a dollar, even for Spencer ******* Petras.



Does Fry not exist in your world or what? Past success doesn't necessarily predict future success but we're over 40 ******* years here.

And what 40 team structure are you talking about? Again you're setting up a strawman. I get the sense that you're a bit masochistic and enjoy thinking of the worst possible outcomes no matter how unlikely.

It’s two hires. I was a Hawkeye fan for HF’s entire run.

There’s not some magic that every coach is gonna be a winner and stay 20 years, it’s been good fortune. You hired a program killer in basketball then tried to polish a super average coach into some distorted expectations legend for 12 years. FB hiring could go just as poorly.

Iowa, Neb and Minn aren’t set up for legendary status in this newly forming structure.

Look at the 6 neighboring schools I mentioned, guarantee there will be less fans in seats and less eyes paying to stream in a decade from this if it really separates out two leagues. NFL will be the winner long term. Nebraska is already losing interest because they can’t win in an easy division. Scrapping divisions could hammer them if they don’t hit a homerun hire.

 

[Trice]

The extra-cruel reality facing Oregon State right now

No Pac-12 schools were dealt a bigger or crueler blow with the USC-UCLA move to the Big Ten than Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers and Cougars have absolutely no leverage in all of this. They're helpless and utterly dependent on other schools and other events.…

trojanswire.usatoday.com

I'm trying to imagine how enraged I'd be if a web site that covers Texas found an analyst who covers Iowa but happens to live in Ames to comment on how ISU's absolute lowest moment is actually worse than it looks.

I hope everyone involved in that story gets an avalanche of hate mail.

 

[Pope]

It’s really too bad because they’re quite similar to Iowa State.

Except they have a better nickname. They should have gone with the USC Trojans to the Big 10 as a package deal.

 

[Acylum]

Pretty sure if Gavin Newsom can vacation in Montana, USC and UCLA will show up to play the poors in the flyover states.

 

[FerShizzle]

The extra-cruel reality facing Oregon State right now

No Pac-12 schools were dealt a bigger or crueler blow with the USC-UCLA move to the Big Ten than Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers and Cougars have absolutely no leverage in all of this. They're helpless and utterly dependent on other schools and other events.…

trojanswire.usatoday.com

i can count all the stories like this written about the unwanted Big 12 schools, and ISU specifically, over the last decade using the fingers on my ****.

this nat'l narrative that suddenly this realignment is now some horrible thing and there are now victims who matter really pisses me off. it says a lot.

 

[Klubber]

UVA is a lot like Michigan minus the blue-blood football. Complete guess but I'd bet that a lot of students come from outside of VA (NY/NJ, just like Mich). And UVA is a lot like aTm in that they are an absolute cult. Having lived in a city with a lot of UVA grads, they like to keep to their own and think down on anyone that went to a 'lesser' school. Much like UM

So you're saying they're another pretentious, snobatorium type school? They'll fit in with the other B1G schools perfectly.

It's funny, if you go on the UVA student enrollment page, they break down their student enrollment as this % Virginian and this % Non-Virginian. They aim to keep it 2/3 Virginian vs. non. Kinda' weird IYAM.

 

[Clone83]

So you're saying they're another pretentious, snobatorium type school? They'll fit in with the other B1G schools perfectly.

It's funny, if you go on the UVA student enrollment page, they break down their student enrollment as this % Virginian and this % Non-Virginian. They aim to keep it 2/3 Virginian vs. non. Kinda' weird IYAM.

I think that is the primary appeal to the B1G. It was founded by Thomas Jefferson in 1819.