With the B1G playing the NFC role and the SEC playing the AFC role. At least there will be "one true champion".
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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Since the Big10 media announcement I’ve seen more smoke on the Zona schools going to the Big 12 soon.
I am not sure on the specifics of how these committees are ran, but all of the conferences get to vote on any of these rule changes. There are 10 conferences plus Notre Dame, making the total 11. The benefit to Notre dame here is that they will vote on their individual best interest, where each conference needs to balance the needs to each member (primarily the big brands).
Everyone gets to vote as it stands now. There is always the possibility of the Big Ten and SEC doing their own thing and leaving the CFP structure in which every conference gets to vote.
That’s why I think we will see 16 teams with all at larges (or token autobids for no more than 6 champions and maybe fewer). It will maximize the money, it will basically maximize the number of B1G and SEC teams that get in, it will preserve access for everyone else.
The B1G is reportedly getting $27 million per game for its top game from FOX. Imagine how much money there will be to go around in a playoff of 15 games instead of the current 3. It would not surprise me to see that contract near $500 million total, of which the B1G and SEC could account for half or more of the money. It could be an extra $10 million a year for each of the schools in those conferences.
If we had the Big10 contract, I'd be cancelling YTTV and picking up Philo. The difference there pays for whatever streaming service you need.
If we end up with ESPN, not only are you stuck with a full TV package but also going to get hit with the newly more expensive ESPN+ @ $9.99 / month.
Does this indicate more that they will, or will not?
NBC in a way benefits in not sharing ND. It makes that other slot not just another BIG game. I don't think you spend big on ND without buying something to couple it with. And if NBC does not, ESPN sure as hell will, and they have the budget headroom to do so after passing on BIG.
If this deal does not include ND, it is either a misstep by Warren/FOX, or a white flag. ND gets to be conference peers of the BIG without being a member. WHILE also getting the same from ESPN league. Savvy move by ole Jack.
This hits on what is probably the most important context:
There is great value in a consensus national champion.
It isn’t hard to imagine some subset of leagues and their network partners colluding to engineer a more deterministic system. There is a lot of money at stake after all. Pulling it off is another matter; college football is a complex, but delicate ecosystem.
This is what I have been saying along that the platform and the time is more important than the teams, unless you are one of the 6-8 blueblood programs like Alabama, Ohio State and Michigan.SicEm365's ratings analysis guy has another one out. Responds to Wilner after showing some general data on tv windows.
The Value of TV Windows & Responding to Another Big 12, Pac 12 Comparison
When realignment comes around, fans run to TV ratings as television value are the motor behind much of the saga that has been on-going for seemingly forever. These comparisons usually end up very flawed for a number of reasons.sicem365.com
If CBS takes Kentucy vs Missouri and puts it on as their primetime Saturday night game, it's going to get decent ratings, take that same game and put it on the SEC network and the ratings drop to half. Now why, the teams are the same, but the difference is you lose the casual fan and now only have the hard-core fan that wants to watch his team or his league play. ISU or EIU will draw a decent rating for an ABC or ESPN prime time game also but put them on FS1 and the number drops.
When Bowlsby said the OU and UT were worth half the leagues money, that is because they were the teams that were always getting the prime-time slots, therefore they drew the biggest ratings. If UT was such a rating drawer, why did no one watch their games on LHN. Because when on that network, only the true hardcore UT fans tuned in. The casual viewer found another game to watch.
Stewart Mandel and Jon Wilner have a bias and vested interest in the Pac 12 surviving, so they are going to push numbers that support the belief that the Pac 12 conference is more valuable than the B12 conference.
Imo it becomes less complex, and regional, as you consolidate top brands into a P2 of north-south polarization. Better product identification, more hate too.
A P2 of 48 of the biggest brands is a big tent. Outside of a few grandfathered in franchises, it hits on the largest areas of and removes redundancy. There just are not many Iowa State types in the other 20 that are being culled- most don't have enough non-casual viewers that will emotionally protest cancel for there to be a loss of interest in that area. An even Iowa St, advertisers will get into Iowa just fine with the hawks. Networks will count on a lot of hate watching in these situations.
They have certainly done their best to spin the numbers against the Big 12 and in Stewart Mandel's case 2 years in a row
At this point I think the best part about the corner schools joining the Big 12 would be the relentless, unabashed dunk fest on Stewart Mandel on Twitter.
This is spot on and also becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as the teams that are in those spots are usually ranked. If you put a 3-3 Kentucky against 3-4 missouri, not sure that gets ratings but it’s almost impossible to determine because those two teams wouldn’t get that time slot with that record.
Exactly. ISU and the Big 12 need to be seen by the 2 game per week viewer. They need to see the product on the field and the fans in the stands to associate us with programs at the big kid table. That is what builds our brands and positions us best for the future. If a hard-core fan like me isn't seeking out games on a streaming service, the more casual fan sure as he'll won't.
Think back to the 70s and 80s when not all the games were televised and the big programs were the only ones on. That was a huge advantage to a school like Nebraska. A situation with the SEC and B1G all over the networks with the B12 on Apple or Amazon is going to be similar. Maybe not as bad as the old days, but still a big and impactful difference.
COVID year actually had a decent example to test that with.
Due to the awkward COVID schedule and all eight of the other Big 12 schools being off that week the 2020 WVU-KU game got just under 1.5 million viewers on FOX. It isn't sniffing that on FS1.
Why do 2020 numbers get thrown out of data sets? Isn't that the best tell for why timeslot and network matter..
Also, any viewership data beyond 2016-17 is irrelevant and unintelligent. Streaming wasn't relevant until the last 3-4 years. Cordcutting has taken off in the past 5 years. 5 years in CFB is like 25 dog years
Also, any viewership data beyond 2016-17 is irrelevant and unintelligent. Streaming wasn't relevant until the last 3-4 years. Cordcutting has taken off in the past 5 years. 5 years in CFB is like 25 dog years
I assume 2020 gets tossed because Pac12 didnt play very many games because of Covid restrictions.
1- 2020 had so many different number of games on relative to other years and had different parts of the country not engaged that depending on what you attempt to compare it can be relevant or not. For instance FOX had WVU-KU that year when that weak of a matchup normally wouldn't sniff that network.
2- I'd push back further than 16-17. 2012 when FOX got involved with FX and then FS1 in 2013 was when things shifted IMO at least in terms of CFB rating competition.
It's like SEC trying to weaken ACC by inviting South Florida, instead of waiting for Clemson & Florida State and doing it directly.
(Not a precise parallel, since SEC situation <> XII, but concept is similar.)
Lots of talk about middle of the road MWC schools ratings wise
Right, which is a relevant dataset in a Big 16 scenario in which the BIG and Big 12 removed that conference. Albeit underselling the value of the Big 16.
