Pumping the brakes on the Tournament

MartinCy

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From what I am seeing, the AP poll has 6 of the Big 12's 10 teams in its top 21. ISU would currently be the 9th or 10th team in the league. As of right now we will be underdogs in Hilton for many of our games. So clearly this team is going to have to pull off several upsets to even have a chance for the NCAA tournament.

Although we beat them both, I would say as of now UNI and Iowa have a better path to the tournament than Iowa State. After tomorrow we will have nothing but high-pressured, tough battles from start to finish every game. It will take an incredible season just to win half our conference games. Obviously we hope they can, but it is by far more difficult this year than I can recall as usually there are always a few teams that are down. Not so this year.

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JM4CY

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I think some of the middle of the pack Big 12 teams are being over-valued vs. Iowa State. The Big 12 double round-robin is a gauntlet, but I don't think there is as much difference between teams 4 through 10 as the analytics show.

Compare teams 4 through 10 to a team like, say, the Iowa Hawkeyes, and sure the analytics are right on the money.
Agreed. However, not really sure why that’s capitalized.
 

BillBrasky4Cy

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Is the Big 12 going to be really tough this year? Yep, but I also think that a lot of people are overselling K-State, OSU, Tech, and even Texas. IMO there are more winnable games on the schedule that what most think. I like the way this team is coming together and I think they will only improve. Prohm will be getting the best out of his guys in Feb and March. Will it be enough? It's hard to say but damn it it's going to be a heck of a ride.
 
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allfourcy

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Is the Big 12 going to be really tough this year? Yep, but I also think that a lot of people are overselling K-State, OSU, Tech, and even Texas. IMO there are more winnable games on the schedule that what most think. I like the way this team is coming together and I think they will only improve. Prohm will be getting the best out of his guys in Feb and March. Will it be enough? It's hard to say but damn it it's going to be a heck of a ride.

Not disagreeing with you, but I do wonder about Tech on your list. They have like 6 experienced seniors (reminds me of another team I once watched). They were eyelashes from winning 4 or 5 more big12 games than they did last year. Maybe I'll regret saying this in a month, but I expect Tech to be in the top 4 in the conference with KU, TCU, and OU. Thinking Beard has it rolling. But I'd certainly prefer to be wrong about that.
 

BillBrasky4Cy

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Not disagreeing with you, but I do wonder about Tech on your list. They have like 6 experienced seniors (reminds me of another team I once watched). They were eyelashes from winning 4 or 5 more big12 games than they did last year. Maybe I'll regret saying this in a month, but I expect Tech to be in the top 4 in the conference with KU, TCU, and OU. Thinking Beard has it rolling. But I'd certainly prefer to be wrong about that.

I personally would put WV and Baylor in the top 4 conversation before Tech.
 
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FinalFourCy

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Is the Big 12 going to be really tough this year? Yep, but I also think that a lot of people are overselling K-State, OSU, Tech, and even Texas. IMO there are more winnable games on the schedule that what most think. I like the way this team is coming together and I think they will only improve. Prohm will be getting the best out of his guys in Feb and March. Will it be enough? It's hard to say but damn it it's going to be a heck of a ride.
Imo you’re misinterpreting the skepticism.

Almost everyone thinks we can compete with most teams, but close losses count just the same as blowouts. A lot of “winnable” games but few games in which we’ll be favored doesn’t usually bode well for making the tournament. My guess is it will be similar to 2010-11 in which we lost 7 games by 6 points or less (or in OT).

Of course, what looks like a complete slate of underdog status can quickly change if you start off strong. Hopefully it will be like football in which it looked like all but a couple games would be upsets, but it turned out almost all but UNI/Akron games were toss-ups and we won enough of them to go bowling (actually won 9 games, **** those refs).
Our football team was very fundamentally strong and usually did the little things well. I don’t get that vibe from the basketball team.
 

Cyballzz

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From what I am seeing, the AP poll has 6 of the Big 12's 10 teams in its top 21. ISU would currently be the 9th or 10th team in the league. As of right now we will be underdogs in Hilton for many of our games. So clearly this team is going to have to pull off several upsets to even have a chance for the NCAA tournament.

Although we beat them both, I would say as of now UNI and Iowa have a better path to the tournament than Iowa State. After tomorrow we will have nothing but high-pressured, tough battles from start to finish every game. It will take an incredible season just to win half our conference games. Obviously we hope they can, but it is by far more difficult this year than I can recall as usually there are always a few teams that are down. Not so this year.

I have to hear this one explained...
 

madguy30

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If the football team's roster can pull off 7-5 and be *this* close to 9 or even 10 wins, this basketball team can make an NCAA tourney by today's standards.

Nobody's saying conference champ or Final Four; it's realistic right now to think they could finish in the top 5-6 of the Big 12 if things go right.

Tell the players not to believe while you're at it.
 

FinalFourCy

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I've heard that and tell me exactly how Iowa (who missed last year at 10-8) playing a worse non con with zero quality wins somehow now sneaks in?
They were on the bubble. You put that Iowa team in the Big 12 last year and they are not even that.

I don’t think Iowa makes it, but if you’re talking about which has the better path to make the tournament, it’s the Big 10. Wins matter.