Prohm in Close Games

[clone52]

So I messed this up. I forgot Niang was 2015-2016 so I updated the entire post to include that.
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I have seen a lot of questions about how Prohm's Iowa State teams have fared in close games and that it was not good, so I decided to do some research.

Some people have defined "close games" as games that end within a 5 point margin. I don't think is a fair representation. I looked at that record, but I also looked at games that were within 5 points between the 5 minute mark and the 30 second mark. The way I see it, if the game is tied with 4 minutes left and you lose by 12, that should count against you as how you fare in close games. Alternatively, if you win by 12, that should be seen as doing a great job closing out games.

Here are the results.
2015-2016 - With Niang
Overall: 23-12 (65%)
5 point final margin: 4-6 (40%)
within 5 points late: 8-10 (44%)

2016-2017 - (Not with Niang, but was with Morris)
Overall: 24-11 (68%)
5 point final margin: 7-6 (53%)
Within 5 points late: 11-7 (61%)

2017-2018
Overall: 13-18 (41%)
5 pt games: 1-3 (25%)
close games: 5-4 (55%)

2018-2019
Overall: 13-4 (76%)
5 pt games: 2-2 (50%)
close games: 4-2 (66%)

So what this is telling me is that even though Prohm's record in games that have a final score of 5 or less is mediocre (14-17), his record in games that are within 5 points any time in the last minute is actually pretty good (28-23). In fact, when a game has been close late, there have been 14 instances where his teams have stretched out to a larger margin of victory in the end and only 6 times has it turned into a larger margin of victory for the opponent.

I don't know the nuts and bolts of game planning and the decisions Prohm makes at ends of games, but on the surface to me, this seems like his teams at Iowa State have been very good at closing out close games.

 

[isufbcurt]

I have seen a lot of questions about how Prohm's Iowa State teams have fared in close games and that it was not good, so I decided to do some research.

Some people have defined "close games" as games that end within a 5 point margin. I don't think is a fair representation. I looked at that record, but I also looked at games that were within 5 points between the 5 minute mark and the 30 second mark. The way I see it, if the game is tied with 4 minutes left and you lose by 12, that should count against you as how you fare in close games. Alternatively, if you win by 12, that should be seen as doing a great job closing out games.

Here are the results.
2016-2017 - With Niang
Overall: 24-11 (68%)
5 point final margin: 7-6 (53%)
Within 5 points late: 11-7 (61%)

2017-2018
Overall: 13-18 (41%)
5 pt games: 1-3 (25%)
close games: 5-4 (55%)

2018-2019
Overall: 13-4 (76%)
5 pt games: 2-2 (50%)
close games: 4-2 (66%)

So what this is telling me is that even though Prohm's record in games that have a final score of 5 or less is mediocre (10-11), his record in games that are within 5 points any time in the last minute is actually pretty good (20-13). In fact, when a game has been close late, there have been 10 instances where his teams have stretched out to a larger margin of victory in the end and only twice has it turned into a larger margin of victory for the opponent.

I don't know the nuts and bolts of game planning and the decisions Prohm makes at ends of games, but on the surface to me, this seems like his teams at Iowa State have been very good at closing out close games.

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Honestly, the 2017-2018 team shouldn't even be used as a comparison. That team is an outlier and had way more problems that not being able to close out a game.

 

[megamanxzero35]

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

Agree here. Wiggington should be that guy this year with this ability to get to the basket. But his injury I feel set him back some. When you want close out a game, you want someone who can get to the basket to either score or get fouled. Niang was that dude and Burton and Monte were in Prohm's second year. Right now, we try to close out with jump shots from Shayok and Babb. Not that those guys are scrubs, they are great, but closing out on jumpers is way more difficult.

 

[discydisc]

I have seen a lot of questions about how Prohm's Iowa State teams have fared in close games and that it was not good, so I decided to do some research.

Some people have defined "close games" as games that end within a 5 point margin. I don't think is a fair representation. I looked at that record, but I also looked at games that were within 5 points between the 5 minute mark and the 30 second mark. The way I see it, if the game is tied with 4 minutes left and you lose by 12, that should count against you as how you fare in close games. Alternatively, if you win by 12, that should be seen as doing a great job closing out games.

Here are the results.
2016-2017 - With Niang
Overall: 24-11 (68%)
5 point final margin: 7-6 (53%)
Within 5 points late: 11-7 (61%)

2017-2018
Overall: 13-18 (41%)
5 pt games: 1-3 (25%)
close games: 5-4 (55%)

2018-2019
Overall: 13-4 (76%)
5 pt games: 2-2 (50%)
close games: 4-2 (66%)

So what this is telling me is that even though Prohm's record in games that have a final score of 5 or less is mediocre (10-11), his record in games that are within 5 points any time in the last minute is actually pretty good (20-13). In fact, when a game has been close late, there have been 10 instances where his teams have stretched out to a larger margin of victory in the end and only twice has it turned into a larger margin of victory for the opponent.

I don't know the nuts and bolts of game planning and the decisions Prohm makes at ends of games, but on the surface to me, this seems like his teams at Iowa State have been very good at closing out close games.

2016-2017 was Morris and Naz, Georges graduated in 2016.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

Really good information. Thanks for putting that together.

 

[fsanford]

I have seen a lot of questions about how Prohm's Iowa State teams have fared in close games and that it was not good, so I decided to do some research.

Some people have defined "close games" as games that end within a 5 point margin. I don't think is a fair representation. I looked at that record, but I also looked at games that were within 5 points between the 5 minute mark and the 30 second mark. The way I see it, if the game is tied with 4 minutes left and you lose by 12, that should count against you as how you fare in close games. Alternatively, if you win by 12, that should be seen as doing a great job closing out games.

Here are the results.
2016-2017 - With Niang
Overall: 24-11 (68%)
5 point final margin: 7-6 (53%)
Within 5 points late: 11-7 (61%)

2017-2018
Overall: 13-18 (41%)
5 pt games: 1-3 (25%)
close games: 5-4 (55%)

2018-2019
Overall: 13-4 (76%)
5 pt games: 2-2 (50%)
close games: 4-2 (66%)

So what this is telling me is that even though Prohm's record in games that have a final score of 5 or less is mediocre (10-11), his record in games that are within 5 points any time in the last minute is actually pretty good (20-13). In fact, when a game has been close late, there have been 10 instances where his teams have stretched out to a larger margin of victory in the end and only twice has it turned into a larger margin of victory for the opponent.

I don't know the nuts and bolts of game planning and the decisions Prohm makes at ends of games, but on the surface to me, this seems like his teams at Iowa State have been very good at closing out close games.

Great stuff, it would interesting how this compares to other ISU coaches.
The funny thing is that his year KU at home would not be included in the close numbers, that in itself is pretty remarkable.

 

[Cycsk]

I think we could help ourselves greatly with the end of games if we wouldn't struggle so much in-bounding the ball. It doesn't seem like other teams struggle nearly as much, except in the past when playing Press Virginia.

 

[yler4cy]

Can you tell me how you came up with the numbers of close games within 5 points? Here is what I got cause I was wondering myself:



Sorry I haven't finished it yet, but I just did games that finished withing 5 points, either win or lose, and got an overall record from his 4 years of 14-20 and 2-7 the last 2 years.

 

[EarthIsMan]

Agree here. Wiggington should be that guy this year with this ability to get to the basket. But his injury I feel set him back some. When you want close out a game, you want someone who can get to the basket to either score or get fouled. Niang was that dude and Burton and Monte were in Prohm's second year. Right now, we try to close out with jump shots from Shayok and Babb. Not that those guys are scrubs, they are great, but closing out on jumpers is way more difficult.

This role is an important one and I think it something that has been missing. I think it has to be Wigginton and NWB. These are the best players that have the combination of creating a shot for themselves, beating a defender on the drive, and passing out if their shot is not there.

To me NWB gets the nod because he doesn't force situations and seems to most consistently make the right play. But his personality doesn't seem to quite fit as a "closer" either. Whereas it seems like Wigginton wants to have the ball in those big moments.

Nonetheless, NWB was the one who broke (and the tie at 61-61) the momentum with a long 2 with a little over a minute to go. I think this team is best when NWB wants the ball in the final seconds.

 

[CycloneVet]

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

I have never seen anyone so consistent in crunch time when a bucket was absolutely needed.

 

[bawbie]

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

my memory isn't great, but didn't we have a similar problem to the Baylor/K-State games during Niang's freshman year, or maybe the Kane year? I seem to remember a Tech game that we completely blew the end of the game, and there was much consternation about getting a quality shot and who should take it, and then they figured it out.

This reminds me of that - learning how to win close games is something you can only do by being in that position.

 

[bawbie]

I have never seen anyone so consistent in crunch time when a bucket was absolutely needed.

(his name is Monte)

 

[CyCloned]

The only thing I will say about Prohm at the end of games, and maybe this on the players as much as him, but the last two losses the team pretty well forgot what got them to that close margin. In both the BU and KSU game the team had a small lead and started taking the air out of the ball. This is not a great, or even good half court team. There is no Niang to get the ball down low and get his shot. Maybe the other team made great adjustments on defense, but ISU starting a play with 10 seconds left on the shot clock has turned out pretty ugly a lot of the time this year.

 

[NoCreativity]

What happened to the numbers from 2015-16? Also, Niang wasnt on the 16-17 team, that was Monte and the other 3 seniors.

 

[JM4CY]

my memory isn't great, but didn't we have a similar problem to the Baylor/K-State games during Niang's freshman year, or maybe the Kane year? I seem to remember a Tech game that we completely blew the end of the game, and there was much consternation about getting a quality shot and who should take it, and then they figured it out.

This reminds me of that - learning how to win close games is something you can only do by being in that position.

I don't know. Seems like Naz took care of some of those big shots.

 

[acgclone]

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

Yep. Shayok is streaky. Wigginton and THT are both in a rut currently. Babb, Jacobson and Haliburton are assist or complimentary guys at this point. Although Babb certainly did hit some big shots last night.

 

[BoxsterCy]

Closer? George is busy working in the NBA but this guy's available to come in and teach someone the cutter.

 

[scottwv]

I thought i read or heard something along the lines of a coaches job is to keep it close the first 16 minutes so the players make plays in the last 4 to win the game.

 

[NorthCyd]

I thought i read or heard something along the lines of a coaches job is to keep it close the first 16 minutes so the players make plays in the last 4 to win the game.

I'm sure he's not the only one, but I've heard Jake Sullivan say Eustachy told his players it's his job to put the players in a position to win in the last 5 minutes, and then it's up to the players to win it.