Prediction for USC/UCLA postmortem.

Which scenario do you predict is most likely? (Not necessarily what you prefer).

  • BIG 10 is done (for now). The Big 12 poaches its pick of the PAC 12.

  • BIG 10 grabs few more PAC 12 (i.e. Oregon). The Big 12 takes PAC 12 leftovers.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is not one of them.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is one of them.

  • The PAC 12 survives like the Big 12 did last year by picking up schools like Fresno.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conferences. Iowa State is AAC or Conference USA bound.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conference. Iowa State ends up in a better conference.

  • The ACC and the PAC 12 implode due to BIG and SEC. The Big 12 raids PAC 12 and the ACC.

  • The Big 12 and PAC 12 merge.


Results are only viewable after voting.

OnlyCyclones

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Feb 27, 2017
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Not to be a Debbie Downer but the Big 12 has been kicked too many times so I am skeptical to see it work out for us like it appears.

I have poked my head around the Pac 12 leftovers forums. They pretty much all believe the Big 12 is beneath them and want no part it. Only Colorado has had some positive posters.

A lot of them are thinking their tv deal w/o UCLA and USC will be about the same as the Big 12 or better.
They’re in denial. They went from possibly being the first super conference (Pac-16) to possible conference implosion within a decade. They need the central time zone, especially if UO leaves.
 

RustShack

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I’m the latest playoff expansion to 12 that almost passed, and would have if the Texas and Oklahoma news hadn’t leaked… All P5 conference champions would have made it, as well as the high ranked G5 school.

The Big12 and ACC will still have a path to the playoffs.
 

HFCS

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Aug 13, 2010
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Not grabbing Houston would increase the PACs survival chances. They absolutely would have picked them up. I would have just rather had Memphis than UCF.

But I understand the potential with UCF. Large market, large enrollment, have been pretty good in football.

Houston and byu get Pac invites if we hadn’t added them. Religion and academics out the door when it’s survival mode.
 

HFCS

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They’re in denial. They went from possibly being the first super conference (Pac-16) to possible conference implosion within a decade. They need the central time zone, especially if UO leaves.

Of course they feel that way when at least two of their members are facing effective demotion.

That’s how 5-6 big 12 members all felt too.
 

cyclone1209

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Nov 5, 2010
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Houston and byu get Pac invites if we hadn’t added them. Religion and academics out the door when it’s survival mode.
I feel the Big 12 comes out okay after all of this. It would behoove BYU and Houston to stay in the Big 12 as opposed to fleeting to a toothless pac 12 now. That conf is really nothing after USC and UCLA are gone.

I will say this. I feel completely secure with ISU in a new look Big 12, and here's why. I would rather be really, really good in the third best league - than just a bottom feeder/nobody in a super league. That seems to make sense for us. If a playoff is expanded to 16, I would bet the big 12 could still net a couple teams in that or 1 at minimum.
 
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exCyDing

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I feel the Big 12 comes out okay after all of this. It would behoove BYU and Houston to stay in the Big 12 as opposed to fleeting to a toothless pac 12 now. That conf is really nothing after USC and UCLA are gone.

I will say this. I feel completely secure with ISU in a new look Big 12, and here's why. I would rather be really, really good in the third best league - than just a bottom feeder/nobody in a super league. That seems to make sense for us. If a playoff is expanded to 16, I would bet the big 12 could still net a couple teams in that or 1 at minimum.
I think the SEC and Big 10 have taken what they want from the Big 12. The ACC and PAC offer less money.

The Big 10 is now taking what they want from the PAC. They will take what they want from the ACC when the time comes.

The Big 12 should be pretty stable, and will very likely be able to offer more money than either the PAC or the ACC to anyone who’s left. I think we’re in the best sport possible outside the Big 10 and SEC.
 

WhoISthis

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I think the SEC and Big 10 have taken what they want from the Big 12. The ACC and PAC offer less money.

The Big 10 is now taking what they want from the PAC. They will take what they want from the ACC when the time comes.

The Big 12 should be pretty stable, and will very likely be able to offer more money than either the PAC or the ACC to anyone who’s left. I think we’re in the best sport possible outside the Big 10 and SEC.

Does the ACC get picked apart by the SEC/ESPN, and to a lesser degree BIG, before the Pac10 is finished off?

I think that depends on what ND does.

We may have a top40 or top-48 P2 by the end of the summer.
 

exCyDing

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Does the ACC get picked apart by the SEC/ESPN, and to a lesser degree BIG, before the Pac10 is finished off?

I think that depends on what ND does.

We may have a top40 or top-48 P2 by the end of the summer.
It seems the ACC is pretty locked down with their GOR for the next decade, at least. It doesn’t really matter if ESPN owns the media rights, the money is due to the other schools and they’d be insane to let their top programs walk for pennies on the dollar. Any other way is simply unaffordable.

In my understanding, the only way it happens is if a set number (a majority, but I’m not sure the exact number) of ACC schools vote to disband. The only reason they’d vote for that is if they know they have a landing spot in a conference that will pay them more. The only way the get that assurance is if they negotiate with another conference. Negotiating with another conference is a violation of the GOR and that school loses their voting rights. Kind of a catch-22.

I would think a good portion of the PAC knows their choices are to be a distant 4th or even 5th of the power conferences or join up with the Big 12 if the Big 10 and SEC aren’t an option.
 

WhoISthis

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It seems the ACC is pretty locked down with their GOR for the next decade, at least. It doesn’t really matter if ESPN owns the media rights, the money is due to the other schools and they’d be insane to let their top programs walk for pennies on the dollar. Any other way is simply unaffordable.

In my understanding, the only way it happens is if a set number (a majority, but I’m not sure the exact number) of ACC schools vote to disband. The only reason they’d vote for that is if they know they have a landing spot in a conference that will pay them more. The only way the get that assurance is if they negotiate with another conference. Negotiating with another conference is a violation of the GOR and that school loses their voting rights. Kind of a catch-22.

I doubt the ACC makes it to 2024, let alone a decade.

It is a very big deal that ESPN is the sole rights holder to the ACC, SEC, AAC, and soon Big 12. It makes it much easier to rearrange schools so that there are no TV revenue damages, which is important. The Big 12 for example will not spend money going to court on OUT leaving if ESPN makes the conference whole. Not worth it to anyone.

But that is moot, as the ACC likely votes to dissolve imo. The conference is dead at the end of the GOR, which means schools will seek to get out ASAP. Schools are always talking, the GOR won't prevent that. And it is easier than normal because ESPN will soon own all but the BIG.

Their deal is from 2016 era TV rights and makes it easy to find equal or better pay for enough schools.
 
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exCYtable

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Hate to say it, but the Big 12 is officially a second tier conference. My guess is the Big 16 eventually adds ND, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, UNC and two other schools to get to 24. SEC does the same and poaches Clemson, Miami, FSU, TCU, OSU, and others.

They will develop some sort of playoff system that they control. We will be lucky to get one automatic qualifying spot.

Enjoy the next two season because college football (as we know it) is dead in 2024.
This whole "second tier" thing is complete BS and something Hok fans are trying to say to belittle Cyclone fans. No matter what happens, there are still just as many high school football players who want to play college football. It's not like the talent pool is going to shrink. SEC and Big 10 teams can still only start 22 guys per team. Cincinnati made the college football playoff last year as a "second tier" league.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

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There is no way the B10 and SEC get to 20 to 24 teams, too much extra backage in each conference for that to happen.
Before that would happen, the power teams will pull away from the conferences, at least in football and set up their own super league, where they do not have to share equal funds with the Rutgers and Vanderbilts of the world.
 

bozclone

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The last year and a half have proven that we have no idea what is going to happen with conference realignment. Two huge moves were kept quiet for months while negotiations happened. I hope we get some of the PAC 12 schools soon, but no one knows what those schools are thinking.
 

OPButtrey

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in my dream…

ND deems themselves morally above the money grabs and decides to join a new B12/PAC to align with the other religious schools and keep their tier 3 rights with NBC. USC and UCLA back out of the BIG deal. Texas wants to back out of the SEC deal but are told to pound sand. OU is allowed to come back but at a 50% share of revenue for the next 10 years. CBS swoops in and pays a bazillion dollars per school.
 

cayin

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I don’t have a prediction - I never seriously thought USC and UCLA would ever go B1G, and that happened in a few hours (publicly, anyway) - but here’s a thought:

+B1G wants Notre Dame, & they’ll package them with Oregon if ND comes aboard. They might possibly also add Washington and somebody else … Utah? Cal? Stanford? Frankly I don’t see the $$$ value for B1G in either Cal or Stanford, or Colorado for that matter.

+If ND refuses, B1G will get both Oregon & Washington for the time being.

+B12 needs to get proactive. Colorado, Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah make a ton of sense. If other PAC refugees are interested, welcome them aboard.

+ACC is going to stumble along as long as ESPN can prop them up. The SEC and B1G have their sights on a few members, but the financial realities of GoR and the TV deals don’t work in the favor of anybody leaving the ACC for a while, at least in my opinion. Eventually, yes, the SEC gets Clemson, maybe Miami, and the B1G gets Virginia, maybe UNC. I do think Notre Dame will eventually have to cave and join a conference, and the B1G is the logical one, but who the heck knows.
What about Florida State?
 

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