Hmmmm...pretty close to our RPI...shocking. The emo bandwagon fans are going to be shocked when the blind comps start coming out and they see what our resume looks like.
Predict Our NCAA Tournament Seed
- Thread starter every_yard
- Start date
Hmmmm...pretty close to our RPI...shocking. The emo bandwagon fans are going to be shocked when the blind comps start coming out and they see what our resume looks like.
I wouldn't count on that happening this year. Too many games in too few days. I don't like it, but I see a close loss in the semis, or a blowout loss in the finals. The legs will be gone by S̶u̶n̶d̶a̶y̶ Saturday.
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On the flip side, I can see us easily getting bounced Thursday.
Finals are on Saturday
If Iowa State wins out at home, they will a 5 seed at worst. Our three remaining road games are against Top 25 teams. The only way we really kill our seed is a loss at home to a bad team. Bracket Matrix has us as the top 4 seed (13th) right now. Other teams also lose games. The field is weaker every season and especially so this season with no great teams and two top 4 seeds not eligible for the tournament.
Am I the only one that wants a 16 seed?
This team refuses to play against lesser name schools. If we can find a way to play NC, Duke, etc the whole way we just might have a chance.
This team refuses to play against lesser name schools. If we can find a way to play NC, Duke, etc the whole way we just might have a chance.
Other than ending with a 6 seed when most thought we would be much higher, a six seed is great. I am too lazy to look it up but I'm betting 6 seeds have done well in the past.
BTW, I voted for the 4. To be right, we need to win a couple of road games and hold serve at home. Also need to use the bench and get away from 35+ minutes for our starters.
Most of those are seeds 9 and lower. I went through add RPI from 1994 (when it started ) to 2015. I calculated seed based on RPI only and compared to actual seed. It matched 35% of the time. Here is how often it matches by seed:
| 1: | 76.1% |
| 2: | 51.1% |
| 3: | 40.9% |
| 4: | 31.8% |
| 5: | 22.7% |
| 6: | 20.5% |
| 7: | 23.9% |
| 8: | 11.4% |
So in that 4-8 range, RPI has a low probably of matching by seed.
Here is a matrix of RPI Projected Seed by Actual Seed:
| | Projected Seed | |||||||||||||||
| Seed | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 1 | 67 | 17 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| 2 | 18 | 45 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 3 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 4 | 5 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | | |||||||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||
| 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 8 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
That's fine, but the 69% figure is based on being within one of the RPI, not right on it. The point being the #15 RPI team PROBABLY isn't going to be a 5 seed or lower.
Some of the outliers:
- Virginia was a 4 seed in 2007 with a 55 RPI
- Oregon was a 2 seed in 2002 with a 34 RPI
- Kentucky was a 5 seed in 2000 with a 4 RPI (that is a shocker)
- Michigan State was a 1 seed in 2000 with a 13 RPI (@#%!$%#$%@#)
- Virginia was a 4 seed in 2007 with a 55 RPI
- Oregon was a 2 seed in 2002 with a 34 RPI
- Kentucky was a 5 seed in 2000 with a 4 RPI (that is a shocker)
- Michigan State was a 1 seed in 2000 with a 13 RPI (@#%!$%#$%@#)
kcbob79clone
Well-Known Member
Here is the seed of every #15 RPI team:
| Year | Seed | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 3 | Florida |
| 1995 | 5 | Mississippi State |
| 1996 | 5 | Memphis |
| 1997 | 5 | Tulsa |
| 1998 | 4 | Michigan State |
| 1999 | 6 | Kansas |
| 2000 | 3 | Maryland |
| 2001 | 4 | Oklahoma |
| 2002 | 5 | Florida |
| 2003 | 2 | Florida |
| 2004 | 4 | Kansas |
| 2005 | 5 | Villanova |
| 2006 | 3 | Florida |
| 2007 | 6 | Duke |
| 2008 | 4 | Pittsburgh |
| 2009 | 5 | Florida State |
| 2010 | 3 | Pittsburgh |
| 2011 | 12 | Utah State |
| 2012 | 3 | Georgetown |
| 2013 | 6 | Arizona |
| 2014 | 4 | San Diego State |
| 2015 | 7 | Virginia Commonwealth |
Here is the distribution:
| Seed | Count |
| 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 |
| 12 | 1 |
Exactly half of the teams at #15 have been seed 5 or lower. So when you say they PROBABLY aren't going to be seeded 5 or lower, that is not true.
What happens when you take out the non P5 teams and take out the teams that aren't in the consensus #1 conference in the nation for that given year?
Here are the the percentage within one of the RPI for the top 8 seeds (69% overall):
| 1 | 95.5% |
| 2 | 92.0% |
| 3 | 79.5% |
| 4 | 71.6% |
| 5 | 62.5% |
| 6 | 52.3% |
| 7 | 62.5% |
| 8 | 36.4% |
You notice that it drops when the seed drops.
I will let you do that. I gave you the teams. My point is that RPI has not been as historically correlated with RPI as you might believe it is.
The only way we at a 8/9 seed is if we lose out...and I mean every game from here forward. Guess what ain't happening. Some of you don't realize that currently we have a top 5 non conf SOS and if we just take care of business at home vs very beatable teams we will be a 6 seed at absolute worst. You all do realize that SMU and Louisville both can't get in. That's 2 teams in the 3-5 seed range not getting in. If tourney were held today we'd be a 4 seed likely and a 5 lock
