Predict Our NCAA Tournament Seed

What will our tourney seed be?

  • 1

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • 2

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3

    Votes: 15 7.2%
  • 4

    Votes: 61 29.5%
  • 5

    Votes: 71 34.3%
  • 6

    Votes: 34 16.4%
  • 7

    Votes: 15 7.2%
  • 8

    Votes: 5 2.4%
  • 9 or worse

    Votes: 4 1.9%

  • Total voters
    207

Gunnerclone

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Jul 16, 2010
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The annual mock selection process is going on in Indy right now. Looks like they have us as the final 3 seed. This is obviously all based on games to date, but gives some good perspective. You can search #mockselection on twitter for more details.

Hmmmm...pretty close to our RPI...shocking. The emo bandwagon fans are going to be shocked when the blind comps start coming out and they see what our resume looks like.
 

ZB4CY

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Dec 17, 2012
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I wouldn't mind a 4/5 with the chance of playing a 4/5-12/13. I like the current match up on ESPN's bracketology.
 

klamath632

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Nov 19, 2011
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Lets remember that the last couple of years we were probably a 4 seed going into the Big 12 tournament. The 3 big wins in the Big 12 tournament helped bump up to a 3 seed.

I wouldn't count on that happening this year. Too many games in too few days. I don't like it, but I see a close loss in the semis, or a blowout loss in the finals. The legs will be gone by S̶u̶n̶d̶a̶y̶ Saturday.
 
Last edited:

ZB4CY

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Dec 17, 2012
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I wouldn't count on that happening this year. Too many games in too few days. I don't like it, but I see a close loss in the semis, or a blowout loss in the finals. The legs will be gone by Sunday.


On the flip side, I can see us easily getting bounced Thursday.

Finals are on Saturday :)
 

SolarGarlic

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Jan 18, 2016
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If Iowa State wins out at home, they will a 5 seed at worst. Our three remaining road games are against Top 25 teams. The only way we really kill our seed is a loss at home to a bad team. Bracket Matrix has us as the top 4 seed (13th) right now. Other teams also lose games. The field is weaker every season and especially so this season with no great teams and two top 4 seeds not eligible for the tournament.
 

RotatingColumn

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Oct 21, 2008
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Am I the only one that wants a 16 seed?

This team refuses to play against lesser name schools. If we can find a way to play NC, Duke, etc the whole way we just might have a chance.
 

Lafaester54

Well-Known Member
Mar 18, 2011
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I will guess a 6 seed. What if we completely implode though (extremely unlikely that will happen), but if we are sitting at 19-20 wins, that 9-10 seed is likely. I would say, worst case scenario 10.
Other than ending with a 6 seed when most thought we would be much higher, a six seed is great. I am too lazy to look it up but I'm betting 6 seeds have done well in the past.
BTW, I voted for the 4. To be right, we need to win a couple of road games and hold serve at home. Also need to use the bench and get away from 35+ minutes for our starters.
 

HoopsTournament

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Yet 69% of the time that is what ends up happening according to the data. This isn't like my opinion I pulled that quote from the RPI history website.

Most of those are seeds 9 and lower. I went through add RPI from 1994 (when it started ) to 2015. I calculated seed based on RPI only and compared to actual seed. It matched 35% of the time. Here is how often it matches by seed:

1:
76.1%
2:
51.1%
3:
40.9%
4:31.8%
5:22.7%
6:20.5%
7:23.9%
8:
11.4%

So in that 4-8 range, RPI has a low probably of matching by seed.

Here is a matrix of RPI Projected Seed by Actual Seed:


Projected Seed
Seed12345678910111213141516
1671731
2184518411 1
3219361511311
4 51728181171 1
51271920161426 1
6 4111418141165122
7 23514212086422 1
8 5101210101212833111
 

Gunnerclone

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Jul 16, 2010
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Most of those are seeds 9 and lower. I went through add RPI from 1994 (when it started ) to 2015. I calculated seed based on RPI only and compared to actual seed. It matched 35% of the time. Here is how often it matches by seed:

1:76.1%
2:51.1%
3:40.9%
4:31.8%
5:22.7%
6:20.5%
7:23.9%
8:11.4%

So in that 4-8 range, RPI has a low probably of matching by seed.

Here is a matrix of RPI Projected Seed by Actual Seed:

Projected Seed
Seed12345678910111213141516
1671731
21845184111
3219361511311
4517281811711
512719201614261
64111418141165122
7235142120864221
85101210101212833111

That's fine, but the 69% figure is based on being within one of the RPI, not right on it. The point being the #15 RPI team PROBABLY isn't going to be a 5 seed or lower.
 

HoopsTournament

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Some of the outliers:

- Virginia was a 4 seed in 2007 with a 55 RPI
- Oregon was a 2 seed in 2002 with a 34 RPI
- Kentucky was a 5 seed in 2000 with a 4 RPI (that is a shocker)
- Michigan State was a 1 seed in 2000 with a 13 RPI (@#%!$%#$%@#)
 

HoopsTournament

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That's fine, but the 69% figure is based on being within one of the RPI, not right on it. The point being the #15 RPI team PROBABLY isn't going to be a 5 seed or lower.

Here is the seed of every #15 RPI team:
YearSeedTeam
19943Florida
19955Mississippi State
19965Memphis
19975Tulsa
19984Michigan State
19996Kansas
20003Maryland
20014Oklahoma
20025Florida
20032Florida
20044Kansas
20055Villanova
20063Florida
20076Duke
20084Pittsburgh
20095Florida State
20103Pittsburgh
201112Utah State
20123Georgetown
20136Arizona
20144San Diego State
20157Virginia Commonwealth
Query1


Here is the distribution:
SeedCount
21
35
45
56
63
71
121


Exactly half of the teams at #15 have been seed 5 or lower. So when you say they PROBABLY aren't going to be seeded 5 or lower, that is not true.
 

Gunnerclone

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Jul 16, 2010
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Here is the seed of every #15 RPI team:
YearSeedTeam
19943Florida
19955Mississippi State
19965Memphis
19975Tulsa
19984Michigan State
19996Kansas
20003Maryland
20014Oklahoma
20025Florida
20032Florida
20044Kansas
20055Villanova
20063Florida
20076Duke
20084Pittsburgh
20095Florida State
20103Pittsburgh
201112Utah State
20123Georgetown
20136Arizona
20144San Diego State
20157Virginia Commonwealth


Here is the distribution:
SeedCount
21
35
45
56
63
71
121


Exactly half of the teams at #15 have been seed 5 or lower. So when you say they PROBABLY aren't going to be seeded 5 or lower, that is not true.

What happens when you take out the non P5 teams and take out the teams that aren't in the consensus #1 conference in the nation for that given year?
 

HoopsTournament

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That's fine, but the 69% figure is based on being within one of the RPI, not right on it. The point being the #15 RPI team PROBABLY isn't going to be a 5 seed or lower.

Here are the the percentage within one of the RPI for the top 8 seeds (69% overall):

195.5%
292.0%
379.5%
471.6%
562.5%
652.3%
762.5%
836.4%


You notice that it drops when the seed drops.
 

Beyerball

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This is painfully obvious going 8/9.

The only way we at a 8/9 seed is if we lose out...and I mean every game from here forward. Guess what ain't happening. Some of you don't realize that currently we have a top 5 non conf SOS and if we just take care of business at home vs very beatable teams we will be a 6 seed at absolute worst. You all do realize that SMU and Louisville both can't get in. That's 2 teams in the 3-5 seed range not getting in. If tourney were held today we'd be a 4 seed likely and a 5 lock
 

CyFan03

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Jun 5, 2010
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I predict a seeding of somewhere between 1 and 16. Let me know what I win if my prediction comes true.