Predict Our NCAA Tournament Seed

What will our tourney seed be?

  • 1

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • 2

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3

    Votes: 15 7.2%
  • 4

    Votes: 61 29.5%
  • 5

    Votes: 71 34.3%
  • 6

    Votes: 34 16.4%
  • 7

    Votes: 15 7.2%
  • 8

    Votes: 5 2.4%
  • 9 or worse

    Votes: 4 1.9%

  • Total voters
    207

cloneteach

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Nov 19, 2009
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Lets remember that the last couple of years we were probably a 4 seed going into the Big 12 tournament. The 3 big wins in the Big 12 tournament helped bump up to a 3 seed.
 

madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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At this point a tourney berth is all that's needed.

Location of game might be an issue, but there's just not a lot of separation between the teams with great records and teams with marginal records like ISU.
 

WastedTalent

Well-Known Member
Oct 22, 2012
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You know, this is a good point. Right now with our depth I'm almost hoping to get bounced round 1 of Big 12 tourney and get rested/healthy for tournament. I'd much rather trade for a Sweet Sixteen or better type tourney run than end it like we did the last couple years.

It is easy to say this after a loss like last night, but I think I feel the same way.

We're probably either a 5 or 6 seed in the Big 12, so losing the first game is not going to hurt our seeding at all.

I would have no problem with the season playing out like this:
-Win out at home
-Steal one on the road
-Probably matched up with Texas or Baylor in the Big 12 tournament (win or lose, shouldn't effect the seed)

This is the recipe for a 4 or 5 seed. Win a couple in the Big 12 tournament, we might be looking at another 3.
 

Spanky

Well-Known Member
Oct 14, 2009
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I'm not confident JM has his head on straight or ever will. I have us at an 8 seed.
 

mjhavlo76

Well-Known Member
Jun 23, 2009
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Wasn't it Conneticutt a few years back that won the whole damn thing as a seven seed? A lot of people are too hung up on seeds as opposed to paying attention to bracket match-ups. I'd almost rather have Iowa State as the "hunters" than the "hunted". Know what I mean?
 
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LindenCy

Kevin Dresser Fan Club
Staff member
Mar 19, 2006
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It is easy to say this after a loss like last night, but I think I feel the same way.

We're probably either a 5 or 6 seed in the Big 12, so losing the first game is not going to hurt our seeding at all.

I would have no problem with the season playing out like this:
-Win out at home
-Steal one on the road
-Probably matched up with Texas or Baylor in the Big 12 tournament (win or lose, shouldn't effect the seed)

This is the recipe for a 4 or 5 seed. Win a couple in the Big 12 tournament, we might be looking at another 3.

I just want to avoid the 8/9 and the 4/5 to put off playing the 1's, but the way this year is shaking out, the 1's might not be as bad as the 2/3's. It's up in the air. The 1 that would scare me the most is OU and they probably wouldn't match us up till at least the elite eight...so maybe I've talked myself into liking a 4/5 :).
 

WastedTalent

Well-Known Member
Oct 22, 2012
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I just want to avoid the 8/9 and the 4/5 to put off playing the 1's, but the way this year is shaking out, the 1's might not be as bad as the 2/3's. It's up in the air. The 1 that would scare me the most is OU and they probably wouldn't match us up till at least the elite eight...so maybe I've talked myself into liking a 4/5 :).

I used to think the same thing about 4/5 seed. So much so, that I'd rather be a 6 than a 5.

However with this season, if we end up in that 4/5, better win that first one, hope for a favorable match up against the 4/5, then get to take a few days off to prep for that 1 seed.

Iowa? Villanova? North Carolina?
Those sound A LOT better than last season's Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Duke.
 

CoKane

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Oct 26, 2013
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If the season ended today we are a 3. Add in the 3 more losses coming our way and that puts us in the 5 seed range.
 

LindenCy

Kevin Dresser Fan Club
Staff member
Mar 19, 2006
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I used to think the same thing about 4/5 seed. So much so, that I'd rather be a 6 than a 5.

However with this season, if we end up in that 4/5, better win that first one, hope for a favorable match up against the 4/5, then get to take a few days off to prep for that 1 seed.

Iowa? Villanova? North Carolina?
Those sound A LOT better than last season's Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Duke.

Yeah, I think I agree. When I was typing that out it showed how weak the 1's are. We're going to have to play a 2 or 1 to get to the elite eight either way (possibly) and it doesn't look too bad. Wish we were fully healthy.
 

Stewo

Well-Known Member
Oct 29, 2008
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Iowa
I'm going a 7 seed. Things are looking like they're only going to get uglier. Just a hunch.
 

AuH2O

Well-Known Member
Sep 7, 2013
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69%? Yea that's not really a sure thing. Also, us falling to 25 isn't a stretch.
Not a sure thing, but it's a pretty good bet that you can see how a team should seed based on RPI, then say plus or minus one.
 

Miniclone11

Member
Oct 28, 2015
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I thought I would throw a poll out for predicting our NCAA tournament seed. A few nuggets:

Our current RPI is 13.
We currently have 6 Top 50 RPI wins with 4 regular season games left against the Top 50 (actually all 4 of those are Top 25 currently). K-State & Cinci could possibly sneak in and Tech could drop out.
We are currently 7-5 in Road/Neutral games.

Based on RPI forecast, our RPI be as follows based on finish (does not include B12 tourney):
Win out: 7-8
Lose 1: 11-12
Lose 2: 14-16
Lose 3: 18-20
Lose 4: 24-26
Lose 5: 34-36
Lose out: 46-48

5 or 6. McKay suspension is hurting.
 

WastedTalent

Well-Known Member
Oct 22, 2012
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Not a sure thing, but it's a pretty good bet that you can see how a team should seed based on RPI, then say plus or minus one.

Yeah, kind of a deceiving stat. Say Iowa St ends up 18th in rpi. That's a 5 seed, so they could be a 4 seed, which would be 13-16, or a 6 seed, which would be 21-24. So really anywhere from 13-24, that's a pretty big gap.

And this is only 69% of the time.
 

FDWxMan

Well-Known Member
Jan 31, 2009
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Des Moines
And this one...you're predicting our RPI to fall to the low 20's and possibly even 30?


Even if seeding actually were based on straight RPI, 6 or 7 seed would be 21 to 28 not in to the 30s.

Hell, ISU could have an RPI of 17, receive a 6 seed, and still fall into that "within one line 69% of the time" stat.

Falling below the 5-line is not at all a longshot, at this point at least.
 

DiehardClone

Active Member
Jan 29, 2014
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5th in conference, 5 seed, one win in B12 tourney, two wins in NCAA.

A spot in the Sweet 16 would melt away approximately 91.72% of the current CFBH (Cyclone Fanatic Butt Hurt).

On a more serious note, adversity can build a stronger, more resilient team. If a few tough losses in January and February lead to our team playing into the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tourney, so be it.
 

every_yard

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Aug 25, 2006
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The annual mock selection process is going on in Indy right now. Looks like they have us as the final 3 seed. This is obviously all based on games to date, but gives some good perspective. You can search #mockselection on twitter for more details.
 

CyCy

Well-Known Member
Nov 7, 2006
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To me the seeding is almost meaningless. I think the potential difference between us and the number 1 team in the nation (whoever that is) is the smallest that has been in any year except for the Fizer-Tinsley team.