Perspective from the Big Ten and some much needed clarifications

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AuH2O

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Great stat! So with ISU being at 1.8 mil per game they fall in the exact average of season ratings for all games. Honestly I think you can spin that to be either a positive or negative. Positive because you aren't hurting a conference and could actually be another good team to have in the stable. Negative because that is saying that your viewership is average. Not sure how the leagues will choose to look at it.
Keep in mind ISU at 1.8 mil only included regular season games. The Fox numbers included post season. If you include ISUs post season they averaged 2.4 mil per game.
 
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Cyched

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So I have to disagree with part of this. First if the Big 12 survives for a bit and you continue to win and get some serious buzz it might almost be worth it to just stay in the new Big 12 if you have access to the new playoff. Basically be kings of the conference and rake in the money without competition.

Problem is a new Big 12 without UT or OU would mean a massive revenue hit. To the point we couldn’t keep Campbell
 

isucy86

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Michigan State is considered a farm school because we used to be a primary ag college called Michigan Agricultural College. We still do have a great ag program (turf grass management for the win) but we also have 2 med schools, a vet school, law school, and a particle collider. Nowadays that term is almost exclusively used by Michigan fans. Iowa is considered a farm school just because it is in Iowa as ****** as that is. Most of the midwest doesn't know a lot about iowa besides corn and the hospital wave. (in my experience)
Fun bragging rights fact: Iowa State was the first land-grant university and Michigan State was #2.
 

NoCreativity

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So I have to disagree with part of this. First if the Big 12 survives for a bit and you continue to win and get some serious buzz it might almost be worth it to just stay in the new Big 12 if you have access to the new playoff. Basically be kings of the conference and rake in the money without competition.

However if the big ten doesn't add anyone now and waits 8 years at that point they will just grab the ACC schools they really want (unless you become that perennial power) and go from there. This is just my thought because alot can change in 6-8 years but I think that the likely hood of you getting into the big ten or SEC now is higher then if you wait 6-8 years.
I actually proposed this a few days ago. Big 12 stays together, adds Houston and BYU, and OU-Texas leaving means Iowa State is the top dog in the conference now. Cambpell wins multiple conference titles and clears a way for an easier playoff berth. I would be completely ok with that.

The feedback I got though is that's not a real Power 5 conference, so we lose tons of revenue, recruiting drops, and Campbell moves on because we can't pay him enough.
Thoughts on that scenario?

Also, as someone who is more into basketball, this would make an elite basktball league even better adding two schools like Houston and BYU.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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If the Big10 stands pat, the SEC adding OU and Texas is a leap past the Big10.

If there was a 12 team playoff last year, how many Big10 teams get a bid? OSU and Indiana.

How many SEC teams get a bid? Bama, A&M, Georgia, Florida. Now they add OU.

The SEC has 7 elite generational programs in Bama, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, A&M & Texas. Plus Auburn and Tennessee aren't far behind.

The Big10 is at 4 schools with OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisky. Schools like MSU, Nebraska and Iowa have some tradition, but it is harder to sustain.

The 12 team playoff is valued at $2B. Today the Big10 and SEC regular season media right packages are worth $1.5M combined. Withe the other 3 power conference packages totalling around $1.3M.

So any realignment is about:
1. Maximizing playoff teams/ revenue.
2. The SEC/Big12 canibalizing future Big12 & Pac12 media rights deal.

That is critical because at some point in the next 5 years the ACC conference is going to ask ESPN to redo the ACC Network deal that runs through 2036. No way Clemson is going to be satisfied making $40-50M annually.
OK lets talk a couple points here.
1. The 12 team playoff structure is for the top 6 ranked conference champions to get bids and then the next 6 go to at large teams. At best the sec gets 3 additional teams in for a total of 4. Doesnt matter which 4 teams they are each year just that they get 4. The big will most likely get 2/3 teams total in each year so im not disagreeing with you that they will be at a disadvantage as of today.

2. Lets go with your 2 billion number even though we have no real idea what it will be. That 2 billion isnt split to the teams playing, most of that money goes to the conferences to divide. Right now playoff teams only get an additional 6 million for the playoff as opposed to the 55 million each big ten school gets. It really isnt that much more money.

3. No one is concerned with the big 12 or pac 12 rights deals. they dont have the buzz to ask for anything especially the big 12

4. The ACC can ask espn all they want to redo the contract but the contract is the contract, espn doesnt have to give them ****. Clemson made their bed and the ACC GoR is agressive so they are stuck where they are.

5. The big tens 2023 deal will put each school at 70-80mil per year, its just them vs the sec and as long as the playoff format is the same they wont fall behind in dollars even if they dont win the natty very often.

6. This is the biggest, the big ten schools are insanely wealthy. The sec is an aboslute joke in terms of wealthy doners compared to the big ten so when the NIL money starts flowing expect alot of those sec 5 stars to find their way to other schools in the big ten besides osu.
 
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isucy86

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See these are the overreactions im talking about. 4-6 teams per year is insane. This is the current proposal up for vote on the 12 team playoff.

As proposed, the six highest-ranked conference champions would populate the bracket along with six at-large teams. There would be no automatic qualifiers for the Power Five conferences. The four highest-ranked teams would receive a bye, and the CFP would commence with four play-in games hosted on the campuses of teams ranked between fifth and eighth.

Most likely the SEC and BIG will get 3 maybe 4 teams in each year. Also projected value is 1 billion per year not 2 billion. We also dont know how that money would be distributed. Right now the playoff deal is for 600 million but the teams only get between 6-7 million per school for getting in. The expected big ten media contracts are for 70-80 million per year per school.
If the Big12 and Pac12 are disolved it is totally possible. If the NCAA goes away(as Emmert indicated is likely), the G5 schools argument to be in the playoff goes away. Basically, the 3-4 conferences left will determine the playoff structure and all 12 teams will come from the 3 or 4 conferences, plus Notre Dame.

I have consistently seen $2B from media consultants on the value of an 11 game playoff.

I would also expect OSU, Bama, OU, Clemson, etc are going to push for a bigger payday than $6/playoff team. Currently, the G5 schools get 20% of the $600M. I would be surprised if the get any money when the 12 team playoff happens.

Remember, GREED RULES.
 

cyIclSoneU

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It was suppose to though because they thought they were tapping into the DC and NY markets. The landscape is completely different 10 years later.

It's kind of silly how many people don't realize this. Maryland and Rutgers were 100% about getting the B1G Network onto cable packages in large metros so the schools could get $$$. It was a cash grab. Had ZERO to do with their athletic programs. The B1G willingly weakened their overall athletic standing so they could all go to the bank together.

The landscape is different now with more cord cutting and the likelihood that streaming will play a larger role in the next TV deals. More about teams that people will watch vs. ones that are in markets with a lot of people so that Comcast will put BTN on the middle tier of sports packages instead of the most expensive one.
 

FriendlySpartan

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I actually proposed this a few days ago. Big 12 stays together, adds Houston and BYU, and OU-Texas leaving means Iowa State is the top dog in the conference now. Cambpell wins multiple conference titles and clears a way for an easier playoff berth. I would be completely ok with that.

The feedback I got though is that's not a real Power 5 conference, so we lose tons of revenue, recruiting drops, and Campbell moves on because we can't pay him enough.
Thoughts on that scenario?

Also, as someone who is more into basketball, this would make an elite basktball league even better adding two schools like Houston and BYU.
As long as you can keep CMC you are in great shape, the moment you lose him its going to be an insane uphill battle. You need about 5 more years of him to get established and i dont know who is going to come knocking during that time. He is the number one most desired coach in the NCAA right now that isnt at a traditoinal power.
 

JM4CY

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As long as you can keep CMC you are in great shape, the moment you lose him its going to be an insane uphill battle. You need about 5 more years of him to get established and i dont know who is going to come knocking during that time. He is the number one most desired coach in the NCAA right now that isnt at a traditoinal power.
The NFL has teams that want him badly too.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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If the Big12 and Pac12 are disolved it is totally possible. If the NCAA goes away(as Emmert indicated is likely), the G5 schools argument to be in the playoff goes away. Basically, the 3-4 conferences left will determine the playoff structure and all 12 teams will come from the 3 or 4 conferences, plus Notre Dame.

I have consistently seen $2B from media consultants on the value of an 11 game playoff.

I would also expect OSU, Bama, OU, Clemson, etc are going to push for a bigger payday than $6/playoff team. Currently, the G5 schools get 20% of the $600M. I would be surprised if the get any money when the 12 team playoff happens.

Remember, GREED RULES.
Sure if two of the power 5 conferences completly dissolve and the NCAA goes away then you could be correct but we are a bit off from that happening. Im sure the payday will be closer to 12-18mil per team but that still is less then 20% of what big ten schools will be making each year in media rights
 

NoCreativity

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It's kind of silly how many people don't realize this. Maryland and Rutgers were 100% about getting the B1G Network onto cable packages in large metros so the schools could get $$$. It was a cash grab. Had ZERO to do with their athletic programs. The B1G willingly weakened their overall athletic standing so they could all go to the bank together.

The landscape is different now with more cord cutting and the likelihood that streaming will play a larger role in the next TV deals. More about teams that people will watch vs. ones that are in markets with a lot of people so that Comcast will put BTN on the middle tier of sports packages instead of the most expensive one.
Exactly, neither of them would have a chance if it happened in 2021. I bet the Big 10 regrets taking all 3 actually, none of them have done anything except a few tourney appearances as a middle seed by Maryland and Rutgers in basketball.
 

cyIclSoneU

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Exactly, neither of them would have a chance if it happened in 2021. I bet the Big 10 regrets taking all 3 actually, none of them have done anything except a few tourney appearances as a middle seed by Maryland and Rutgers in basketball.

I would be shocked if they regretted the numbers in their bank account that came from little old grandmas in suburban NYC and DC who paid for BTN cable and never once watched it or cared about Maryland or Rutgers athletics in the slightest. Nebraska... maybe a different story there.
 
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isucy86

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OK lets talk a couple points here.
1. The 12 team playoff structure is for the top 6 ranked conference champions to get bids and then the next 6 go to at large teams. At best the sec gets 3 additional teams in for a total of 4. Doesnt matter which 4 teams they are each year just that they get 4. The big will most likely get 2/3 teams total in each year so im not disagreeing with you that they will be at a disadvantage as of today.

2. Lets go with your 2 billion number even though we have no real idea what it will be. That 2 billion isnt split to the teams playing, most of that money goes to the conferences to divide. Right now playoff teams only get an additional 6 million for the playoff as opposed to the 55 million each big ten school gets. It really isnt that much more money.

3. No one is concerned with the big 12 or pac 12 rights deals. they dont have the buzz to ask for anything especially the big 12

4. The ACC can ask espn all they want to redo the contract but the contract is the contract, espn doesnt have to give them ****. Clemson made their bed and the ACC GoR is agressive so they are stuck where they are.

5. The big tens 2023 deal will put each school at 70-80mil per year, its just them vs the sec and as long as the playoff format is the same they wont fall behind in dollars even if they dont win the natty very often.

6. This is the biggest, the big ten schools are insanely wealthy. The sec is an aboslute joke in terms of wealthy doners compared to the big ten so when the NIL money starts flowing expect alot of those sec 5 stars to find their way to other schools in the big ten besides osu.
Regarding your point 3. ESPN and FOX definitely care about the CURRENT Big12 and Pac12 media rights dollars.

In 2025 between FOX and ESPN, the Big12 media rights will be $450. The Pac12 rights are somewhere around $300M. Those are monies that both networks can use to fund SEC and Big12 media rights. That's why OU and Texas is such a big move for the SEC. ESPN can keep it's overall investment in college sports in line with it's current investment, but keep it's money makers (Bama, OU, Georgia, Texas, etc.) happy with incremental year-over-year growth
 
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WFBClone

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Fun bragging rights fact: Iowa State was the first land-grant university and Michigan State was #2.
The first land grant school is open to question. Iowa State lays its claim to the fact that the State of Iowa was the first to accept the terms of the Morrill Act, and so, in ISU's eyes, ISU is first. But MSU also claims to be first because it enrolled students before ISU, and even Penn State claims to be first. I'd suggest you that you do some investigating into these institutions because they all lay claim to being first and actually Kansas State also lays claim to being first.

Here's a little known fact----after states accepted the terms of the act, they could lay claim to 30,000 acres of federal land for each member of Congress. The land did not have to be in the state of the institution, and a number of states claimed land in Iowa since the land was so rich.
 

cyIclSoneU

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4. The ACC can ask espn all they want to redo the contract but the contract is the contract, espn doesnt have to give them ****. Clemson made their bed and the ACC GoR is agressive so they are stuck where they are.

ESPN has no reason to renegotiate the ACC deal because they will be laying out the red carpet for Clemson and Florida State at a minimum to come over to the SEC sometime before their GOR is up. Then the ACC will be worth not much more than the Big 12 leftovers. Maybe UVA and UNC join the B1G or SEC.

If the B1G has taken the valuable Pac-12 schools by then, the ACC/B12/Pac leftovers will essentially be a second tier in CFB. Using 2021 dollars, they will be in the teens in millions of $ per year per school in media rights while the B1G/SEC with USC/Clemson etc. will be approaching 100M per school.
 
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