Welp, looks like I’m going to have to go and figure out who Kelsey Joens is now.
***Official 2025 Weather Thread***
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Welp, looks like I’m going to have to go and figure out who Kelsey Joens is now.
Yeah, that river isn’t unusually high. Like I said, they’ve lived there for 43 years and the creek flooding has been a constant issue. They know when it will crest based on the amount of rain received up stream, they know when it will start to go down. They know how long the corn can be under water. It’s not crazy it would be flooded a bit. But the amount of flooding and the fact that it only started going down today is very weird.
So what FranCon level can we expect? We need to keep the chart alive for his stay in Iowa. His facial expressions alone can relate to the level of storm severity. 
I always laugh whenever I hear folks say the odds of something happening a second time are even lower.
I've joked that I should smuggle a bomb onto the plane whenever I have to fly because that would make the odds of TWO bombs being smuggled onto the same plane infinitely small.
Well, it's still very uncertain at this range- if you watch local forecasters or check weather models there is basically no convection (storms) in central Iowa for the entire day on Monday.So what FranCon level can we expect? We need to keep the chart alive for his stay in Iowa. His facial expressions alone can relate to the level of storm severity.
The NAM 3km CONUS is the only high resolution model (CAM) RN that is showing storms anywhere in our area in Monday, it would be at midnight on Monday and could pose a spin-up tornado threat:
The more experienced forecasters at the SPC are throwing this out because it doesn't seem realistic given the strength of the low level jet and the parameter space (dew points, wind shear, instability), but some of the meteorologists at local NWS offices and local meteorologists in Des Moines news channels are not discounting the possibility of a "blue sky" bust.
NWS Des Moines at the moment thinks this sequence of events will play out on Monday: https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...MX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
-A bunch of storms might form, probably discrete/semi-discrete, right over I-35, from Minnesota down to Fort Dodge/Ames, IA at 1pm tomorrow.
-This bunch of storms would move eastward and be the biggest risk for strong tornadoes for the day.
-A line of storms will enter western Iowa from Nebraska at 7pm likely into the southern part of the state and arrive at I-35 around 10-12pm, at this point the tornado threat will be diminished.
-There could be activity south of the first bunch of storms in south-central Iowa, but it doesn't look likely. Therefore there could be a "gap" in central Iowa between these two systems.
-Storm motions will be fast at 40-50 mph, so not a lot of warning time but also tornadoes are unlikely to deal as much damage- the EF2 tornado that hit Story County last year likely would have been rated higher if it wasn't moving at 60 mph just SE of Nevada, for example.
All this is VERY uncertain, and none of the models are showing this or even storms convecting in central Iowa which is a source of controversy among meteorologists. So I guess keep an eye out on updates.
Just to highlight the uncertainty, the Weather Channel is showing only a 24% rain chance for Ames, to the point where they are not even calling for it to be a day with any precipitation (besides a stray storm in the morning).
SPC has been nailing it lately. Some (maybe even most) of my favorite chasecaster/youtube forecasters have not been nailing it lately.
Sure could be. I doubt a beaver dam would cause this much. But maybe. It’s probably just a fluky thing. But I’ll be interested in how it floods the rest of the year. It went down significantly last night and is off the road.
Waiting for the farm channel to tell us we are still in a drought.
Are we seeing rain tomorrow or what? Weather channel shows hardly any chance for rain tomorrow but the outlook says high chance for storms. Is there a timing to this thing? Might miss us?
SPC moving Moderate Risk (4/5) farther north.
Much of Central Iowa now Enhanced (3/5)
Much of Central Iowa now Enhanced (3/5)
The outlook for Monday lies somewhere between "Nothing ever happens" and Revelation 6:15-17.
The uncertainty almost bothers me as much as saying that there is a 50% chance of a three-mile wide EF5.
The uncertainty almost bothers me as much as saying that there is a 50% chance of a three-mile wide EF5.
Storm Prediction Center Apr 27, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
There are ingredients there conceptually, but based on my experience forecasting this area over the last 20 years, we're (DSM and probably Ames) aren't in what I would highlight as the best position relative to the low.
Not saying things can't or won't happen, but based on some local pattern recognition, I'm not surprised or disagree with the adjust in probabilities.
Not saying things can't or won't happen, but based on some local pattern recognition, I'm not surprised or disagree with the adjust in probabilities.
So this could be as bad as the old civil defense poster for nuclear attacks. Point 10 is when you see the bright flash, you bend over stick your head between your legs and kiss your A$$ good by.
