Actually, seems about right to me. Depends on who leaves Texas for the pros. I might switch OSU and KSU though.
Joe Lunardi's Bracketology 17-18
- Thread starter ZB4CY
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If we could somehow harness the Iowa fan butthurt energy in those comments, we could probably power the planet for years. Wow. They are in some major jealous rage.
Where would you rank next year's team (the roster today) with the previous 6?
This past year was a very good year, but even with 4 good seniors it was an NIT year until Prohm finally figured out he had to try Young. This is both good and bad- even with proven returning talent we were close to not being good enough, but one player can make a huge difference.
It does not seem that off to me when I think about it for a moment. Lunardi looks at more than just what teams are returning and losing.
Iowa State should finish in the top 7 in the big 12 next year. Also ISU likely has decent odds vs the field for winning the Big12 tourney and getting the autobid, given their recent history (3 of 4) and Bill Self's demonstrated disinterest in said tourney.
Iowa on the other hand is still middle of the pack in the BoneG. Tough for Lunardi to take 8 schools from that overall underwhelming conference. That conference is reaping the "rewards" of expansion. Iowa will have a tougher road to the NCAA's as a result regardless of how they compare to ISU head to head. And Fran has never won a BoneG tourney game. I think Iowa will make it in, but definitely a bubble team.
Iowa State should finish in the top 7 in the big 12 next year. Also ISU likely has decent odds vs the field for winning the Big12 tourney and getting the autobid, given their recent history (3 of 4) and Bill Self's demonstrated disinterest in said tourney.
Iowa on the other hand is still middle of the pack in the BoneG. Tough for Lunardi to take 8 schools from that overall underwhelming conference. That conference is reaping the "rewards" of expansion. Iowa will have a tougher road to the NCAA's as a result regardless of how they compare to ISU head to head. And Fran has never won a BoneG tourney game. I think Iowa will make it in, but definitely a bubble team.
If we hit this spring we could add 3 starter level guys. Combine that with the three returning guys improving and the 4 freshman, and we have a chance. If we miss it could be a rough first few months.
No way! The watered down B1G schedule provides Iowa a much more favorable road than the Big 12's round robin schedule.
How does that work then? If Iowa fans are not expected to think their team can win and get to the tournament because of what they return?
Then you say the big 10 is weak with their schedule. How does that possibly favor any kind of argument that you have when all you do is speak out both sides of your mouth?
This has nothing to do with what I posted?
My point is that the B1G schedule is watered down compared to the Big 12's round robin schedule. What is so hard to understand about that?
Not what I meant, but okay. Big12 perennially gets 60-70% of its teams in the tourney. Big10 only 42-50%. ISU does very well in conf post season tourney. Iowa does terrible.
Refrain from "if Iowa was in Big12, if ISU was in Big10" argument BS. Instead, consider this question, "Do you think ISU has a better chance of finishing in the top 7 of the Big12 and shot at B12 autobid than Iowa has a chance at finishing in the top 7 of the Big10 and their autobid?"
I'll take ISU's path to the NCAA's over Iowa's.
Last I checked, crappy teams from crappy conferences usually don't make the NCAA tournament.
To be fair, I would have to see both teams non con schedules to make a fair assessment. Look at K-State this past season. With a decent bubble they don't get in and the Big 12 is a 5 bid league. I can tell you right now that Iowa State will play the top 5 projected teams in the Big 12 on the road, can Iowa say the same? That's my point! There is no hiding in the Big 12, you get everybody twice.
Yeah, we're still not having the same conversation. Assume non con is the same. Or different. Doesn't matter. History shows ISU needs to perform better than 3 or 4 other teams in the big12 to make the tourney. Iowa needs to perform better than 7 or 8 teams in the big10. ISU has a better than average chance at the getting auto bid in the big12 tourney, Iowa chokes every year in the big10 tourney. Now adding your point that ISU strength of schedule is better than Iowa's, that's another bonus point for ISU at tourney selection time.
Lunardi believes that ISU is more likely to make the tourney than Iowa, despite ISU losing most of the players with significant minutes and Iowa losing only one player. Despite Iowa playing in a mediocre conference and ISU playing in a very tough conference. All before they've played in a single game. I agree.
If you think we could get to the NCAA tournament with our current roster you'd be in for a rude awakening. The good news is that the roster will be upgraded and it will be interesting to see by how much.
