Joe Lunardi's Bracketology 17-18

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I would accept that 7-10 matchup vs. Northwestern. ISU wins.

Field and seedings look mostly good to me. Now, here comes the critique.

MSU should be a 1-seed. Possibly No. 2 overall seed.
He doesn't distinguish who champ is in WCC, neither Gonzaga nor SMC is in all-caps. That's hyper-scrutiny, but he gets paid to do this.
He has 8 teams from Big 12 making it, and other team on the bubble. Surprising to me. Tech will not make it, from my perspective. OSU is almost more likely ... KSU may be, too.
SMU won't rise to a 5 seed. If only 2 AAC teams make it, UConn will before SMU.
WKU will win C-USA auto-bid instead of MTSU.
Illinois "in" before Maryland.
2 teams from Patriot League. Hmmm. I'd take MWC or C-USA for multi-bid leagues over that, or A-10/American getting 3.

Other than that, he is spot-on.

I just don't see how the Big 12 could ever get 8 teams in. The #7 and #8 teams would have to have a hell of a non con resume to even make a case. I think 7 is probably the cap for the conference.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would take a 10 seed and no play-in game in a heartbeat! That means we'll have had a pretty good year. I hope I'm wrong, but my head says our streak is going to end next year.

The #10 seeds last year were...

Marquette (19-12)
VCU (26-8)
Oklahoma State (20-12)
Wichita State (30-4)

Given that OSU is likely the obvious model to follow, they did this...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/197

L to UNC on Maui
L @ Maryland

Otherwise undefeated in the non-conference. Losing a game in our tournament and losing something like, say, @ Missouri would be pretty similar.

They won their SEC game and went 9-9 in conference and lost their game in KC.

If we break 9-9 in conference... lose maybe to KU and WVU at home but hold serve otherwise and pick up a game or two against KSU and TTU on the road... and I think we're more likely to win a game or two in Kansas City given the home advantage there...

...well...

Yeah, I could see it. Not a lot of room for error there, though. That is objectively a good season on a very hard schedule by OSU. Not going to be easy to replicate it.

 

[VeloClone]

I just don't see how the Big 12 could ever get 8 teams in. The #7 and #8 teams would have to have a hell of a non con resume to even make a case. I think 7 is probably the cap for the conference.

If the selection committee mantra that they don't look at conferences at all but simply teams it could very well happen. If 3 teams were tied for 6th place at 10-8 with very good out of conference records and SOS and they each had a win or two against the quality in the conference it could happen. It would also help if 9 and 10 had decent OOC but due to injuries or other issues imploded in conference and ate up a big chunk of conference losses.

1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 11-7
5. 11-7
6. 10-8
7. 10-8
8. 10-8
9. 1-17
10 1-17

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

If the selection committee mantra that they don't look at conferences at all but simply teams it could very well happen. If 3 teams were tied for 6th place at 10-8 with very good out of conference records and SOS and they each had a win or two against the quality in the conference it could happen. It would also help if 9 and 10 had decent OOC but due to injuries or other issues imploded in conference and ate up a big chunk of conference losses.

1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 11-7
5. 11-7
6. 10-8
7. 10-8
8. 10-8
9. 1-17
10 1-17

I mean yeah, I suppose it could happen but the probability of the above scenario is pretty slim.

 

[MartinCy]

If the selection committee mantra that they don't look at conferences at all but simply teams it could very well happen. If 3 teams were tied for 6th place at 10-8 with very good out of conference records and SOS and they each had a win or two against the quality in the conference it could happen. It would also help if 9 and 10 had decent OOC but due to injuries or other issues imploded in conference and ate up a big chunk of conference losses.

1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 11-7
5. 11-7
6. 10-8
7. 10-8
8. 10-8
9. 1-17
10 1-17

West Virginia and Kansas are the 9th and 10th team right?

 

[VeloClone]

West Virginia and Kansas are the 9th and 10th team right?

My only regret is that I can only like this post once.

 

[NATEizKING]

What no Iowa? Must be an error on the 1 or 2 line there.

A roster of Tyler Cook and guys ranked 220+ deserves more respect.

 

[igraves679]

To get into the tournament, I think it is going to be very important to take 2 of 3 out of Missouri, Iowa, and Tennessee. Personally I think we can win fall tournament, but not sure what Florida state returns. If we go into big 12 with just 2 losses, I'd like our chances of going at least 8-10, because that would mean the newcomers are the real deal. If we have 2 losses we probably need to get at least 9+ grab one in big 12 tourney, which would put us right on the bubble.

 

[CyForPresident]

Holy ****, ISU is in this thing?!? I've just assumed that Lunardi had ISU out, but if you offered me a play-in game, let alone a 10 seed(?!?!?!), I'd take it immediately.

The Clyburn, Tyrus, Babb, Lucious team was a 10 seed.

 

[Cydkar]

If the selection committee mantra that they don't look at conferences at all but simply teams it could very well happen. If 3 teams were tied for 6th place at 10-8 with very good out of conference records and SOS and they each had a win or two against the quality in the conference it could happen. It would also help if 9 and 10 had decent OOC but due to injuries or other issues imploded in conference and ate up a big chunk of conference losses.

1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 11-7
5. 11-7
6. 10-8
7. 10-8
8. 10-8
9. 1-17
10 1-17

In theory it could happen, but we're not gonna have two 1-17 teams ever.

 

[cyclones500]

If the selection committee mantra that they don't look at conferences at all but simply teams it could very well happen. If 3 teams were tied for 6th place at 10-8 with very good out of conference records and SOS and they each had a win or two against the quality in the conference it could happen. It would also help if 9 and 10 had decent OOC but due to injuries or other issues imploded in conference and ate up a big chunk of conference losses.

1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 11-7
5. 11-7
6. 10-8
7. 10-8
8. 10-8
9. 1-17
10 1-17

As improbable as getting more than 7 realistically probably is, it could even happen without having two multiple teams with only a 1 or 2 wins — if most teams' OOC was unusually exceptional, especially enough for a few teams to be in consideration even w/ league marks of 9-9/8-10.
1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 10-8
5. 10-8
6. 9-9
7. 9-9
8. 8-10
9. 4-14
10. 3-15

 

[VeloClone]

As improbable as getting more than 7 realistically probably is, it could even happen without having two multiple teams with only a 1 or 2 wins — if most teams' OOC was unusually exceptional, especially enough for a few teams to be in consideration even w/ league marks of 9-9/8-10.
1. 13-5
2. 12-6
3. 11-7
4. 10-8
5. 10-8
6. 9-9
7. 9-9
8. 8-10
9. 4-14
10. 3-15

While admittedly not having two 1 win teams in 03-04 A&M was winless and Baylor had 3 wins so that isn't far from having two 1 win teams. Seven seasons in the Big 12 the bottom two teams have posted five or fewer combined conference wins.

 

[NATEizKING]

Holy ****, ISU is in this thing?!? I've just assumed that Lunardi had ISU out, but if you offered me a play-in game, let alone a 10 seed(?!?!?!), I'd take it immediately.

The Clyburn, Tyrus, Babb, Lucious team was a 10 seed.

That teams luck factor was also about -9000. That was the Niang no charge year against Kboo. McLemore banked 3 to send it to OT year too. Also the year Clyburn went off for 0 in the loss to IoLa, lost a 4 point lead to OSU with 2 minutes to go (didn't score rest of game), and Texas made a tying 3 with 2 seconds left before winning in double OT.

 

[VeloClone]

That teams luck factor was also about -9000. That was the Niang no charge year against Kboo. McLemore banked 3 to send it to OT year too. Also the year Clyburn went off for 0 in the loss to IoLa, lost a 4 point lead to OSU with 2 minutes to go (didn't score rest of game), and Texas made a tying 3 with 2 seconds left before winning in double OT.

It's funny how if your team wins close games they are clutch but if they lose the close ones it is luck. Not a comment on you Nate, everyone generally does it.

And yes, I also know that some rating systems have a luck factor in their rankings.

 

[NATEizKING]

It's funny how if your team wins close games they are clutch but if they lose the close ones it is luck. Not a comment on you Nate, everyone generally does it.

And yes, I also know that some rating systems have a luck factor in their rankings.

I know what you mean, but we didn't win any close ones that year if you check the schedule except for a 2 point win at home over WVU. The 2 KU games is mostly what I was referring to, a game tying banked 3 and a bs no call on a charge before the foul call on Georges (wasn't this the missed 5th foul on Withey too?). The others were just added bonus to reach -9000.

Edit: I'll also add that the Kane/Ejim year our luck factor was over 9000 to cancel it out.

 

[VeloClone]

I know what you mean, but we didn't win any close ones that year if you check the schedule except for a 2 point win at home over WVU. The 2 KU games is mostly what I was referring to, a game tying banked 3 and a bs no call on a charge before the foul call on Georges (wasn't this the missed 5th foul on Withey too?). The others were just added bonus to reach -9000.

Edit: I'll also add that the Kane/Ejim year our luck factor was over 9000 to cancel it out.

It really wasn't a comment on that team either. I tend to call a team we have that seems to pull out all the close games as clutch but will call other teams lucky if they do it. It is just a general observation.