Jirehl Brock status?

besserheimerphat

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Throw in the really special “special teams” and you cannot tell me that team was close to average.
The average football team makes a lot of mistakes and bad plays. We're all biased Cyclone fans, so we disproportionately remember the bad stuff that our team does. And again, we were average in that our offense was as bad as our defense was good. The net result was a slightly positive expected net points per game.
 
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Dowwmeow

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In general, the metrics are kind to ISU under Campbell.

Vegas too. In particular ISU has done better than you might think in yards per play on both sides of the ball, at least before last year, which is what they really look at.

Ironically, Vegas minimizes things that Campbell would consider 'winning in the margins'. These includes things critical to winning games like Turnover margin, red zone%, and to some degree even penalty yards and special teams.

Why? Vegas considers those flukey statistics that tend to even out over time, thus making their likelihood hard to quantify going forward and not good indicators of how good a team is at football 'pound for pound', so to speak.

Modern advanced metrics tend to work in a similar fashion because they are trying to evaluate teams on a deeper substantive level than you'd get with traditional means that use surface level stats like W-L record, Points scored/allowed, etc. that are easier to skew based on outliers such as "luck", volume, opportunity, etc.

What does this mean for ISU? We tend to be really bad at getting lucky. Probably not a big shocker to anyone here. What might be a bit of a hot take is is ISU is actually kind an inverse football team from the coach speak we get all the time.

We have consistently built quailty rosters of talented guys who can square up pound for pound with most teams we play, but we haven't done the little things well consistently enough to have a whole lot to show for it.
Which can be summarized by one phrase we all know and hate, “We ARE Iowa State”
 

xboxfever

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during the recruiting process, yes Hall was underlooked, under-recruited and ranked lower. The whole time Brock and Breece were committed, Brock was more highly regarded. Breece was indeed a 2 star, not by everyone, but some services. He did end up as a 4 star, but not by everyone. Rivals for example, elevated him to a 3 star. I answered in the context as to who was more highly thought of throughout the recruiting process, mostly from the fan excitement on the message boards.
Breece was never a two star. I remember that recruiting year very well because Brock and Breece were both highly rated. I knew one if not both were going to be very special. Breece was an early enrollee and got a big jump on Jirehl right from the start. Most publications and media knew Breece was going to get the first look between the two because of this. I have no idea why you keep trying to make Breece some under the radar 2 star that came out of nowhere.
 
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jbhtexas

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The TEAM was about average overall. The defense was above average about as much as the offense was below average. Miami, NC State and Iowa all had worse offenses than we did and yet finished with better records. If you look at the teams around us, we are the outlier with a bad record. Some of that is due to SOS (ACC and B1GW have joined the chat) and some of that is due to luck. And I would assume SOS and luck are correlated. Kansas and Okie State both finished the year ranked lower than us in the team analytics, but finished with better records. And we all played equivalent schedules.
Not buyin' it. In conference play last season, ISU had the worst scoring offense in the Big 12 by 9 PPG, and the 3rd best scoring defense. I'm not sure how one would get "about average" out the that. Wins are what matters, right? And wins are determined by what team has the most points at the end of the game.

The way I do math...might be right...might be wrong:

good defense + terrible offense + bad special teams = below average

4 wins + 8 losses = below average
 
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madguy30

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Not buyin' it. In conference play last season, ISU had the worst scoring offense in the Big 12 by 9 PPG, and the 3rd best scoring defense. I'm not sure how one would get "about average" out the that. Wins are what matters, right? And wins are determined by what team has the most points at the end of the game.

The way I do math...might be right...might be wrong:

good defense + terrible offense + bad special teams = below average

4 wins + 8 losses = below average

If ISU eeks out the wins over KU, KSU, Texas and Tech, which would still likely leave them at last in scoring by a wide margin, are they still viewed as bad?
 
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Clonefan32

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Breece was never a two star. I remember that recruiting year very well because Brock and Breece were both highly rated. I knew one if not both were going to be very special. Breece was an early enrollee and got a big jump on Jirehl right from the start. Most publications and media knew Breece was going to get the first look between the two because of this. I have no idea why you keep trying to make Breece some under the radar 2 star that came out of nowhere.

Breece was never a two-star, but I think the OP is remembering him kind of blossoming late. I know our biggst positive is that we got in on him early. If I recall correctly he had alot of additional suitors his senior year, and had a great week at an All-Star game which really added to his hype. But I think he was more of an unknown when we first recruited him.
 
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Clonefan32

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This just isn't true lol.

I'd love to hear an argument on how we didn't lose alot of guys from an average team last year.

Top 3 receiver in school history (X), top DL in school history (Will) , our QB (Dekkers), our starting RB (Brock), our 2nd best DL (MJ Anderson), our RT (Remsburg), our center (Downing), our starting NG (Lee), our starting MLB (Vance) and probably our best TE by the end of last year (Hanika).
 

Drew0311

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I'd love to hear an argument on how we didn't lose alot of guys from an average team last year.

Top 3 receiver in school history (X), top DL in school history (Will) , our QB (Dekkers), our starting RB (Brock), our 2nd best DL (MJ Anderson), our RT (Remsburg), our center (Downing), our starting NG (Lee), our starting MLB (Vance) and probably our best TE by the end of last year (Hanika).


Exactly. How someone says it is t true is beyond laughable
 

jbhtexas

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If ISU eeks out the wins over KU, KSU, Texas and Tech, which would still likely leave them at last in scoring by a wide margin, are they still viewed as bad?

Probably not. One of the crazy paradoxes of life, where the final evaluation in FB is wins and losses, not how good a team looks on the stat page.
 

Statefan10

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Exactly. How someone says it is t true is beyond laughable
You said we lost everyone and I'm telling you that we didn't. We lost no doubt some important pieces but they literally went to the NFL so idk why you're even bringing them up? That's why we recruit, so we can reload the guys we do lose into those positions. The logic of thinking that because those guys graduated and moved on that we're going to suck is elementary.

The guys we lost to the scandals will sting at first, but if those are the types of guys that were on our team, no wonder we were horrible on offense. Not to mention Hanika was arguably being pushed from his spot, Brock literally couldn't stay healthy, Remsburg barely played last year, and Dekkers threw some of the most interceptions out of anyone in P5. Would we have liked to have them back if they were bought into the team? Absolutely, because they no doubt would've helped, but they weren't bought in and they were actively breaking team and NCAA rules.
 

Drew0311

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You said we lost everyone and I'm telling you that we didn't. We lost no doubt some important pieces but they literally went to the NFL so idk why you're even bringing them up? That's why we recruit, so we can reload the guys we do lose into those positions. The logic of thinking that because those guys graduated and moved on that we're going to suck is elementary.

The guys we lost to the scandals will sting at first, but if those are the types of guys that were on our team, no wonder we were horrible on offense. Not to mention Hanika was arguably being pushed from his spot, Brock literally couldn't stay healthy, Remsburg barely played last year, and Dekkers threw some of the most interceptions out of anyone in P5. Would we have liked to have them back if they were bought into the team? Absolutely, because they no doubt would've helped, but they weren't bought in and they were actively breaking team and NCAA rules.
We lost most of our impact guys. The arguement you are making is a terrible one. We lost half of our starters off a very average team. IT's fine if you are trying to sugar coat this and give yourself hope. However, what you are saying just does not hold water at all. The guy who threw the most interceptions in power 5. Beat out the guy behind him. So how good is that guy. You are arguing like a Hawkeye troll right now. The back up is better. Ummm no he is not. Also, I am not saying they should not be kicked off the team, they should. So not sure how you are trying to make that part of the debate.
 

hurdleisu24

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We lost most of our impact guys. The arguement you are making is a terrible one. We lost half of our starters off a very average team. IT's fine if you are trying to sugar coat this and give yourself hope. However, what you are saying just does not hold water at all. The guy who threw the most interceptions in power 5. Beat out the guy behind him. So how good is that guy. You are arguing like a Hawkeye troll right now. The back up is better. Ummm no he is not. Also, I am not saying they should not be kicked off the team, they should. So not sure how you are trying to make that part of the debate.
Brock was 25% production from RB position last year. 99 for 460 is replaceable
Hanika was 50% of receptions/yards from TE position. 17/244 is replaceable

Lee: 22 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 QB hurries.

Dekkers is the only one that statistically will be "hard to replace". But as mention above, he was a TO machine. We get someone in there that doesn't turn it over as much and we will be fine.
 

JM4CY

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If ISU eeks out the wins over KU, KSU, Texas and Tech, which would still likely leave them at last in scoring by a wide margin, are they still viewed as bad?
Then that infers their offense and special teams was better than they were (which was absolute dogsh*t, especially when it matters). So if the offense and special teams was better then no they wouldn’t be viewed as bad.
 

Statefan10

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We lost most of our impact guys. The arguement you are making is a terrible one. We lost half of our starters off a very average team. IT's fine if you are trying to sugar coat this and give yourself hope. However, what you are saying just does not hold water at all. The guy who threw the most interceptions in power 5. Beat out the guy behind him. So how good is that guy. You are arguing like a Hawkeye troll right now. The back up is better. Ummm no he is not. Also, I am not saying they should not be kicked off the team, they should. So not sure how you are trying to make that part of the debate.
My point was not that you thought they shouldn't be kicked off the team it was that the guys we lost during this probe were not good for the program. They just weren't. Is it going to be addition by subtraction? Not right away as I believe there will definitely be growing pains. My point about Dekkers holds weight when you don't think about it in a vacuum like you are though. Rocco is not a freshman QB anymore. He's had essentially all spring, summer, and fall to prepare as the starting QB. And I know that Dekkers has more arm talent than Rocco but something wasn't right in Hunter's head last year and idk if he just couldn't read defenses, or the offensive play calling confused him, or what. If Rocco can limit turnovers, OL is just competent, and our ST is okay, we will be an average football team this year.
 

madguy30

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Then that infers their offense and special teams was better than they were (which was absolute dogsh*t, especially when it matters). So if the offense and special teams was better then no they wouldn’t be viewed as bad.

I'm talking more like if just one or two more plays is made against any of those teams for the win. Even the defense holding Tech after ISU got the lead.

The stats wouldn't be much different. I suppose maybe a bit better for field goals but the overall special teams would still be pretty poor.
 
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