That scares me in so many ways.
MS will probably feel the pinch and will most likely restructure. If the top dogs arent seeing this, then the board needs to find new management for the company's future.
Linux is still a looooooong way from becoming a fighter in the ring on general user level and is still fighting to get into alot of business use. I think they will get in somewhat.
So do you think at some point that computers wont be as we know them today and will in some way become just thin client terminals? Essentially, a flash based drive while all apps and storage will be online? (should bandwidth restrictions be a non factor)
We aren't far from that, and I think that's the direction things are currently headed.
Ok, i don't know what industry you work in, but some of what you are saying is off base in my opinion.
1. Office Applications. Ok, things are moving to the net - Microsoft has announced and is implementing Cloud based versions of Office that will be sold on a subscription basis.
2. Operating systems. No matter how much stuff becomes virtualized or cloud-based, an OS will still be needed to access and utilize those applications - unless you have some brilliant plan to stick the OS in a cloud, which I would love to see how that would work.
3. GOOG vs. MSFT online. Here is something I agree whole-heartedly with you on. GOOG is destroying everyone in terms of search and selling Ads online. Once again though, you have to give MSFT an edge long term here unless GOOG figures out more ways to generate revenue. Business is generally unkind to companies who can't figure out a way to branch out from being a one-trick pony.
4. Vista. Probably a flop in terms of reputation, but not in terms of $$ generation. In addition, I think most are seeing Vista as a bridge to Windows 7, which is when most commercial businesses will upgrade.
5. IBM reference. Good analogy. However, IBM eventually found its way through this and is now (once again) an ultra-successful company - making $ hand over fist with its consulting arm.
1. Agreed. The question is whether MS really has any sort of advantage in this space. It isn't JUST the office application anymore, but the integration of that into the whole environment. Collaboration and all that jazz.
2. The OS already largely IS the cloud. The web browser does so much that the OS used to do. Flash, AJAX, Java etc, all run full featured applications in a web browser. The OS is just a life support system for it. Sure there are things that still don't work well with that model, but it won't be long before that's figured out too. The OS is an increasingly (though certainly not yet totally) irrelevant piece of the puzzle. Once you realize that almost everything you need/want to do can be done in a web browser, nothing is stopping you from migrating to Linux or OS X or your mobile phone.
3. Google has been selling directly in MS's back yard in a few areas. They are offering customized search services, complete productivity solutions for small business etc. They are branching out in a variety of ways and being pretty smart about it. I'm not saying they are not still a one trick pony, but they seem to be one step ahead of MS at every turn online and in the cloud, and they've got a name that people associate with innovation right now. MS has a lot of catching up to do.
4. MS has been cooking the books on this. XP would be generating essentially the same revenue that Vista has. Nobody that I know has actually gone out and bought a retail copy of Vista, or upgraded just to run Vista. It's eye candy that doesn't really bring anything to the table that XP doesn't (or couldn't). Sure Windows 7 sounds all fine and good, but I think there are a LOT of companies out there that don't want Vista OR Windows 7. XP is all the life support system they need to run their critical applications. It works, and people are accustomed to it. Windows 7 is essentially change for the sake of change, and with tightening IT budgets, unless there are amazingly compelling reasons to switch, I just dont' see it happening.
In the past, MS could always just pull out the support or sales rug from an OS and it would wither and die because people needed MS software to do things that were important to them. With the web taking over more and more, that's less and less the case and MS doesn't have the leverage it once did.
5. I agree that MS will survive somehow or another, but just as IBM doesn't have nearly the clout they once had - a near total monopoly - MS won't have it going forward either. It may still be a very successful company (or companies) but MS as we once knew it, in my opinion, is largely on it's way out the door.
