Provide quality competition and the eyes will open up 'outside' the geographical region. Given our current program, whatever conference we end up in we'll bring more eyes to any/all games.
ISU and PAC12 Attendance and merger idea
- Thread starter Boxerdaddy
- Start date
Conferences with 16 teams, 20 teams… It’s just silly.
TV, the BCS, and now the CFP have really taken the sport away from what it’s supposed to be.
TV because it destroyed regional, reasonably sized conferences and the ability for all but a few schools to be independents.
The BCS because it solidified the distinction between power conferences and mid-majors, more or less eliminating the ability of any team outside a BCS conference winning the national championship.
The CFP because it’s created a situation where the same teams get in every year, and now with an expansion proposal, it encourages ridiculously large conferences and concentrations of power.
TV, the BCS, and now the CFP have really taken the sport away from what it’s supposed to be.
TV because it destroyed regional, reasonably sized conferences and the ability for all but a few schools to be independents.
The BCS because it solidified the distinction between power conferences and mid-majors, more or less eliminating the ability of any team outside a BCS conference winning the national championship.
The CFP because it’s created a situation where the same teams get in every year, and now with an expansion proposal, it encourages ridiculously large conferences and concentrations of power.
The 1st goal of any conference merger is to maximize $ per school.
OU/Texas was a game changing win for the SEC because the TV rights revenue for those 2 schools is at least $200M annually. Incremental per school money for the 14 existing SEC schools.
The current SEC payout is $45M per school and when ESPN replaces CBS that will increase to over $60M. Adding UT/OU should get to at least $75M, without adding increased playoff $.
The current Pac12 contract pays around $32M per school between FOX, ESPN and PAC12 Network media rights fees. As long as the Pac12 can maintain $32 in their next contract, I doubt there is an AAC school that can bring $32 million. Not sure there is a Big12 eight that can do that either.
If the Big12/Pac12 merge it involves starting at a blank slate and ranking the schools 1-20 according to the media rights value each school brings with a goal of a conference that could generate hopefully around $50M+ per school on average during the next contract window based on a 10 year deal. Less if the new deal is fewer years. A merged Pac12/Big12 might be anywhere from 11-16 teams. It won't be a super conference.
The least valuable Big12/Pac12 teams would be excluded- so I doubt any AAC teams would be added. Plus the AAC contract with ESPN runs through 2032 and I assume they have a GOR.
OU/Texas was a game changing win for the SEC because the TV rights revenue for those 2 schools is at least $200M annually. Incremental per school money for the 14 existing SEC schools.
The current SEC payout is $45M per school and when ESPN replaces CBS that will increase to over $60M. Adding UT/OU should get to at least $75M, without adding increased playoff $.
The current Pac12 contract pays around $32M per school between FOX, ESPN and PAC12 Network media rights fees. As long as the Pac12 can maintain $32 in their next contract, I doubt there is an AAC school that can bring $32 million. Not sure there is a Big12 eight that can do that either.
If the Big12/Pac12 merge it involves starting at a blank slate and ranking the schools 1-20 according to the media rights value each school brings with a goal of a conference that could generate hopefully around $50M+ per school on average during the next contract window based on a 10 year deal. Less if the new deal is fewer years. A merged Pac12/Big12 might be anywhere from 11-16 teams. It won't be a super conference.
The least valuable Big12/Pac12 teams would be excluded- so I doubt any AAC teams would be added. Plus the AAC contract with ESPN runs through 2032 and I assume they have a GOR.
Diminishing return year over year. They won't see that revenue.
If the Pac12 can't approach $50M annual average revenue/school, then the Pac 12 is probably done. As schools like USC, Oregon, etc. will seek out greener pastures.
The Pac12 schools currently average $32M and most industry experts expected rights contracts to go up 40-60% with the next round of negotiations. That might seem like a lot, but remember these contracts have typically been around 10 year agreements. So payouts could be $35M in 2025 and $65M in 2035- going up around $3-4M annually.
Look back at the media rights revenue for Big12, Big10, SEC, etc. in 2012 and look what they are today. Pretty funny that $15-20M annually and the schools felt like they struck gold back in 2012. Annual "inflation" increases are built in.
Kansas probably has a higher % of “no shows” than other attendance as they require purchase of football tickets in order to get basketball tickets. They sell 18,000 football season tickets to people who want to go to basketball and may not even attend the football games
I'm already just so tired of all this crap.
College football was easily my favorite sporting event to watch live or on TV. And as a sport, it just rakes in the bucks, and the vast majority of programs are doing just fine. They have such a good thing going.
But is that okay? Heck no. Programs like OU and TX, which are already swimming in money and have no idea what to do with it all (probably will install gold toilets in the locker room next, if they don't already have them?). But they want more, and are willing to ruin the entire sport to get more.
So if ISU gets left out of all this in the end.... I just will be hoping it all implodes, and people around the country just don't give a s**t anymore and quit watching all these greedy a-holes and they all end up broke.
Like I said.... just so tired of it all.
College football was easily my favorite sporting event to watch live or on TV. And as a sport, it just rakes in the bucks, and the vast majority of programs are doing just fine. They have such a good thing going.
But is that okay? Heck no. Programs like OU and TX, which are already swimming in money and have no idea what to do with it all (probably will install gold toilets in the locker room next, if they don't already have them?). But they want more, and are willing to ruin the entire sport to get more.
So if ISU gets left out of all this in the end.... I just will be hoping it all implodes, and people around the country just don't give a s**t anymore and quit watching all these greedy a-holes and they all end up broke.
Like I said.... just so tired of it all.
Funny, I decided today (before I read this) that I am only going to watch Iowa State games this year and spend the rest of my Saturdays doing something else.
Let's Go State!
What’s happening now is CFB has actually been going on for a long time, it just happens to be coming to a climax at the moment. That is why I have always preferred the NFL, where the playing field is much more level. Nonetheless, I love my Cyclones and will cheer for them immensely the rest of my life, regardless of what the future brings.
I keep going back to how excited I was 3 weeks ago. I had my fall schedule all planned out. It was going to be a nail-biting, epic journey.
I still have my fall planned out, but the rug has been pulled out from under me.
I keep seeing us in pods with KU, KSU, Cinci, etc.. We would really want to find a way to play more games in TX and FL for recruiting purposes.
No way the Pac 12 gets rid of any current members to take on new schools from the Big 12. If they add schools it will be in addition to those that already are in the conference.
The biggest problem with the Pac 12 network is it is wholly owned by the conference themselves, so there was no outside pressure by Fox or ESPN to get them on all cable and more important satellite TV, they currently are not on Direct the biggest provider of satellite TV.
Their new commissioner former job was at MGM Resorts International, where he was president of entertainment and sports. So he would know how to work to get the network on TV in more homes.
The PAC won't get that, which is Why I think USC and 3-5 others are a good chance at heading to the B1G. I can really see 3-4 of ASU,AZ,Utah, Co. available. whoever of that is left, add Houston and BYU and it's a fun league.
If I'm wrong and the PAC doesn't break start with UH, BYU, Cincy, UCF, USF and Memphis.
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Yes, have 6 10 team 'power' conferences ( this would involve dropping 5 current tems) or 6 11 team conferences (add one team) and have them play a round robin. Winners of these conferences outright and two of the best of the rest play championship weekend for a spot in the four team playoff, essentially making it a 8 team playoff. The losers championship weekend go into their respective bowl games.
Conferences would realign every few years. Some teams may be dropped from these 'power' conferences some may be added.
I would imagine the non 'power' conferenses in a similar structure.
Never say never when it comes to realignment. The Pac12 agreement is up in a couple years, so they have the opportunity to reset their membership. You may very well be right if KU, Okie State, ISU have very little incremental value vs. Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Colorado or Cal. Obviously, there will be political considerations as well.
But in the end, if a blend of the top x Pac12 and the top y Big12 schools can be combined to keep the Pac12 comparable with the ACC, then dropping members might be the hard choice.
The ACC & PAC12 have similar revenue today, but the ACC has to approach ESPN to make their deal much richer if they hope to keep Clemson & FSU happy.
Also what happens if the SEC isn't done with their bold moves? They have added Texas, Texas A&M and Arkansas - why not go after 4-6 Pac12 teams that expand their footprint coast-to-coast? Travel between SoCal, Az, UT and CO to Texas is no big deal.
Also there was rumor that USC was considering going independent like Notre Dame. If OU and UT's average value is at least $100M each, the USC is probably in the same area.
Just like college athletes want to get paid their worth with NIL- the premier schools are going to want to get paid their worth.
One aspect with the next round of media rights contracts, do we see shorter agreements like 5 years to allow some of the industry dynamics play out, without the schools or media companies be committed for a decade.
What is the point of even having a conference if you have teams that a 4 year graduate won't even play?
I think the PAC is going to be very hard pressed to generate more than $40M in the next contract. It is driven by four teams...USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington. The other 8 fall within the same range as the remaining 8 in the Big 12. You pull the big 4 (assume they go to the BIG) and you have a conference hard pressed to generate $20M per year. The big 4 isn't going to wait until 2035 to get $65M per year...they will jump in 2025 to get $75M per year.
So what you are saying with this "reset" is kicking teams out of the league. To do that would require 75% of the league schools to support such a change or 8 out of the 12 schools.
So please list the 8 schools that are going to be OK with kicking out some schools to add Big 12 teams to the league.
If USC is going independent like ND which conference are they going to park all their other sports in to make it easier for scheduling? BYU put theirs in the MW, but somehow I would think that would be off the table for USC, much like the Pac 12 would not allow everything but football to stay in the conference.
Going independent sounds great on the surface, when you are a name school like USC, but you also have to find a place for your other sports to compete.
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The Pac12 TV deal with Fox & ESPN is up in 2024. Is there a Pac12 conference without a TV deal that is satisfactory to USC, UCLA, Oregon or Washington? The Pac12 is in the same position as the Big12 without OU & Texas if a couple of the above 4 decide to pursue greener pastures.
If it means keeping the Pac12 alive by booting out Washington State, Oregon State and any other low value media properties, then I could see it happening. Also, the Big12 was only 10 teams. So even by dropping OSU & WSU and being the Pac10 again- there is more revenue per school.
The new Pac12 Commissioner might be able to get more value out of the Pac12 Network by partnering with another media player like FOX, Amazon Prime or Netflix.
If USC or any school were to pursue being an independent, scheduling would be the biggest hurdle. But I doubt the West Coast or Mountain West Conferences would be closed to adding USC in all but football. Being in the West Coast conference hasn't hurt Gonzaga recruiting for Men's basketball. The path for MBB, WBB and Olympic sports to earn bids to NCAA Championship is not blocked by being in a non-P5 conference.
Also UCS is a private university. So if they have the ability to earn $100M or more by being an independent (vs. half that in the Pac12) they would definitely consider it.
