They would just join the big ten as is expected instead of going independent. Get 80mil from the new big ten deal and not have to worry about any realignment or media deals ever again.
ISU and PAC12 Attendance and merger idea
- Thread starter Boxerdaddy
- Start date
I agree if the Big10 is willing to take at least 4-6 Pac12 schools. Then it is a no brainer for USC to join Big10. It may not take the sports media rights to be 100% accretive because of academic considerations. aka If Stanford is interested in joining Big10, they are in! Even if Stanford is below the top schools in sport media rights value.
It is either all or none of the California PAC schools...USC isn't leaving the PAC alone to be only school in the BIG from Cali.
Zero chance 4 schools go and leave 2 behind..Not in California in this climate today..No way. Pelosi alone would pass some federal legislation to block it.
Is it possible 6 PAC schools go to the BIG? sure. Is it likely? nah. Taking 2 schools into a conference is an enormous task...6?
Zero chance 4 schools go and leave 2 behind..Not in California in this climate today..No way. Pelosi alone would pass some federal legislation to block it.
Is it possible 6 PAC schools go to the BIG? sure. Is it likely? nah. Taking 2 schools into a conference is an enormous task...6?
I’m just hoping Fox does the right thing, and pressures the B1G and PAC to go to 16 taking in B1G schools. Then the ACC would likely do the same at that point.
But money is all that matters no unfortunately.
But money is all that matters no unfortunately.
The expectation is USC and Oregon to be at 16. If they want to go to 20 the big question is wait for the ACC to go up or poach more from the pac12. Personally I would like for ISU to get in with 5 other pac12 schools if the big ten made the jump to 20
Doubt Pelosi has any say what two private California schools (USC & Stanford) do. It doesn't make sense for 1-3 Pac12 teams to join the Big10, IMO the # will be closer to 6. If USC can annually make $40-$50M more by going to Big10 or being independent, vs. staying in Pac12 then it would be tough to pass up that coin.
But I agree, does USC want to be in a different conference from UCLA. Similarly, would Stanford want to separate from Cal. So it is possible the 4 California schools might be a package deal. But as we have seen in recent Big12 realignment- long standing rivalries can be pushed aside. Then the rivalries are renewed after a few years- ISU has played CU & Mizzou in hoops. Nebraska & OU are playing FB this fall.
There was a day when the Big8 added 4 SWC schools. Taking a block of schools from one conference is probably easier than when the Big10 added Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland. 3 teams, 3 difference conferences.
So their TV deal ends in 2024, the Big 12 ends in 2025 and they have already asked the networks about the value of the their deal. Do you think that the Pac 12 is going to wait around until 2024 to start their next deal? With the OU and UT leaving the Big 12, its safe to assume that that those talks have already begun or will shortly.
This idea that USC will leave the West coast for a conference in the central and eastern time zones by themselves is just crazy, half their conference games over 2,000 miles away. Placing their other sports in smaller conferences, you do not think would hurt them recruiting athletes for those sports? And what makes you think that the Big 10 with USC brings in as much as the SEC bringing in both UT and OU?
Its a Big 10 dream, like winning the lotto, much like getting ND is, neither are happening, but fun to think about.
Money is great, you know what also is great, close games played in a conference you helped grow and develop, played against teams that have been rivals for years, and we do not know but I doubt that SC is hurting for money.
The idea that USC and Oregon are going to leave the Pac-12 to go play at Purdue and Rutgers and Minnesota seems pretty far fetched to me. Oregon especially wouldn’t do it, I think. That’s a passionate fan base that’s going to be pissed off about their road games all being in the Midwest. The only way I see it is if half the Pac-12 goes with them.
As far as fan interest in college sports goes, the state of Oregon is probably the closest to the state of Iowa that you’ll find in Pac-12 territory.
As far as fan interest in college sports goes, the state of Oregon is probably the closest to the state of Iowa that you’ll find in Pac-12 territory.
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A huge benefit of ESPN convincing OuT to leave the Big 12 is that it clearly establishes to any CFB blue blood brand that media execs view them as individual properties and want to treat them as such. If there is a big gap between what the SEC earns compared to everyone else, it will be easy for the TV guys to exploit using the play book they used here in the Big 12.
Once the only way to keep conferences together becomes offering the better brands bigger shares of the spoils, Katie bar the door. It will get ugly. BTDT.
Once the only way to keep conferences together becomes offering the better brands bigger shares of the spoils, Katie bar the door. It will get ugly. BTDT.
I think the SEC may have to take 2 more Big 12 teams if they want to get OU and Texas before 2025.
KidSilverhair
Well-Known Member
This is my thinking, too, although I also don’t see half the Pac-12 joining the B1G either. What kind of “conference” is it if it stretches from Los Angeles to New Jersey? That’s no conference, that’s not workable, I don’t care how many pods you come up with. That’s a scheduling nightmare, and those USC-Rutgers and Oregon-Maryland games at 9 am PST aren’t going to be pulling in ratings or cash.
Does that mean it won’t happen? Well, no, if the B1G tells USC they can make a few million more per season, there’s no guarantee they don’t take that along with those scheduled matchups with Purdue and Rutgers. Greed in college football has already brought us to a pretty awful place. But it just doesn’t make any sense to me. Remember how we all laughed when CUSA was talking about merging with the MWC, and we mocked a potential conference stretching from San Diego State to East Carolina? This is like that, only with better pedigrees. I just can’t see it working.
Even adding half of the Angry 8 to the PAC-12 isn’t ideal, but a conference stretching from Ames to the West Coast might at least work. A conference spanning the entire continent? I don’t know why everybody is even talking like it’s a serious possibility.
(Just watch, in a few weeks we’ll see the official announcement of USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington to the B1G, and I’ll be proven astoundingly wrong yet again.)
If the Big10 takes 6 Pac12 teams then they could play 5 games against traditional Pac12 rivals. And 7 or 8 of their ten Big10 games would be Mtn/Pac time. Doesn't seem like much if a stretch for Pac12 teams to make 2 or 3 trips over an 11 week period to the Midwest.
Isn't CBS losing the SEC? Would they be in the bidding for the B12? ( in whatever shape). What about an internet companies? Amazon jumped in with NFL. Could they partner with CBS or something like that?
So you think USC will refuse to fly to the B1G that includes Michigan, Ohio St., PSU, Wisconsin, MSU, Neb & Iowa but they can't wait to add trips to KU, ISU, Oklahoma St., TT, TCU & Baylor? Especially when they can maybe make 30-40M more in the B1G? I arrive at those numbers by thinking the PAC will be hard pressed to get above 40M and the B1G is looking at somewhere between 70-80M with their conference network. Also, where can USC & OR sell recruits on better NIL money? Playing the B1G schools or the B12. yes, I know the B1G will have some dogs besides the better teams but they also have the blue bloods and schools with bigger draws to offset those schools not doing well which the remaining B12 schools don't.
Quit thinking with what you want to happen and what is more likely.
USC is kind of like a Texas Jr. - another huge brand that has seen better days and is in need of making a splash. Taking the four California schools plus Oregon and Washington into a 20-school B1G could be their way of doing so, with a much bigger paycheck to boot. They keep all the rivals that they care about.
people make way too much of travel distances - they’re getting on a plane, who cares? The extra money will more than cover jet fuel. Even for the Olympic sports.
This is also not a worst case outcome for ISU because we would merge with the Pac-12 leftovers. The B1G and SEC would be true megaconferences (I expect they would pick at the top ACC schools when their GOR is over), but the sport isnt going to exclude everyone else from the table.
people make way too much of travel distances - they’re getting on a plane, who cares? The extra money will more than cover jet fuel. Even for the Olympic sports.
This is also not a worst case outcome for ISU because we would merge with the Pac-12 leftovers. The B1G and SEC would be true megaconferences (I expect they would pick at the top ACC schools when their GOR is over), but the sport isnt going to exclude everyone else from the table.
I think you are approaching this from the wrong network's perspective. It won't be FOX directing or applying pressure. Its much more likely to be ESPN. ESPN wants OU & UT in the SEC right away. I am sure ESPN has in its discussions with OU/UT discussed ways to lighten their revenues withheld by the conference.
IF ESPN wants to lighten exit fees, lawsuits and do the right thing to not try and destroy CFB as a national sport I could see this involving one of two things.
1. play ball with FOX and say ok we will increase our tv revenues with a 4-6 team addition of USC & other PAC schools to the B1G. ESPN still retains the most valuable properties of the PAC going to the B1G. Also, what many B12 fans on this board seem to want to avoid looking at is you can monetize USC, UCLA, Or & UW better against OSU, Mich., PSU, Wisky, Neb & Iowa than you can with the remaining B12 schools. I wish it wasn't true but it is. To argue different is just destroying your credibility. Please note I am not saying this is good for the sport but it is what it is. If UT & OU needed more revenues and better games for NIL I have to believe USC, UCLA, Or & UW do too.
If this happened, then ESPN can most likely move ASU/AZ/CU & Utah to the B12. What can this league get per year? I don't know. 25-30M and I would be ecstatic for ISU, maybe more like 20M. Maybe WVU gets shipped to the ACC and Houston takes their place.
2. The other option that could happen to alleviate above is ESPN works to get everyone placed. Now I don't think the B1G has a lot of motivation to help this get done if they are not getting USC & west partners or somehow the top ACC schools are moved(which seems less likely). So if the B1G decides KU doesn't have enough value on their own and they don't or KU & ISU(unfortunately) lets look at what ESPN could do.
First of all the SEC got the huge prize in this expansion. Is it completely plausible they could not have already discussed be willing to take two more schools to get the B12 dissolved? Its probably not their first choice but plausible. This hasn't been looked at from ISU fans but the SEC got their content kings, what if they agree for two schools that were positive academic schools such as KU & ISU. These two would also fit with Missouri & OU for rivalries. They don't really need another school in Texas or Oklahoma. KU & ISU would also probably take a reduced rate for some time as well. KU & ISU could develop a rivalry of some sorts with Arkansas also.
Then ESPN tells the ACC they will add some net revenue per school to take WVU, TCU & Baylor.
Then ESPN tells the PAC they will add some revenue to take KSU, OSU, TT & one other maybe Houston. They also convince the PAC to do a network with them instead of the route the PAC has been pursuing.
I don't think the ACC has any real power to resist what ESPN tells them to do. ESPN pays all their revenue and the ACC is desperate for an increase. The PAC may have more but if for some reason USC and others don't go to the B1G they need more money and playing ball with ESPN could help that. They still may need to do unequal revenue sharing to get their top 4 paid more to keep the league afloat.
In this second example in the end ESPN gets to move the UT & OU content and own it by itself. It also might not pay much more than it would have in giving the B12 with OU & UT a new deal and continuing the LHN. The B12 did better than the ACC & PAC.
Unfortunately, I can see the B1G & SEC going to 20-24 schools and two leagues of schools left behind in a revamped ACC & B12/PAC. The question is at what fraction of revenues will the two remaining leagues be at? 25%, 33% 50%?
Then do they try and continue the 3rd tier of division 1 with a AAC & MWC or do a few of those schools get moved up to the remaining schools and there is finally the breakaway.
I don't feel it will be good for the sport overall but we will see.
