Housing market

[BCClone]

A place with higher wages for blue collar workers. I'm a skilled laborer and I can make 15$ more an hour in Vegas and its cheaper to live there. The problem in Phoenix is that if you are a blue collar worker you can't afford to buy or rent there anymore. I can do it I just won't have any extra money. The bang for your buck in Arizona is bad. Alabama-like wages and Colorado-like housing costs. No union presence in the state whatsoever. I made $3/hr more in DM. It's bad. If you are a tech worker who makes 6 figures it's probably not as bad. I can make more per hour in KC and still buy a house there for under 200k.

Wife’s BIL who is in HVAC construction (since mid 80s) has said the unions are strong with his group. Been union in all 3-4 companies he has worked for.

 

[BigBake]

I hope this is true. Market has been insane and overpriced for too long.

Housing market Black Swan bubbling

The housing market could be at risk and could see a 'Black Swan' collapse sometime in the future. Home prices are too high and eventually, they must come down.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[motorcy90]

Happy we were able to snag the house we did at 11k under the appraised value even last month, now just waiting to close hopefully in the next week or 2 still.

 

[Sousaclone]

I work in the real estate industry and I'll have to disagree with a few things here. We lost a decade of contractors/laborers due to the recession. Our supply chains have been disrupted beyond just covid-19, meaning labor and materials will continue to go up (though not like lumber this past year). The entitlement process in bigger cities takes a long time, so it's not as simple as buying some land and building on it a few months later.

At the peak, the twin cities were building about 18k housing units per year. this year they're on track for about 10k, with higher demand. Sure, prices might not go up like a rocket but i don't see an all-out crash like we had a decade ago.

It's crazy to see some of the ripples that are occurring across all pieces of the markets. I wonder if we'll see a little bit of a transition away from the ultra lean, just-in-time inventory approach a lot of places were doing.

I am nervous a little about buying on my upcoming move, mainly because it's not going to be a long term house (ie, I'm not going to just weather out a drop in price for 15 years) since I know I'm moving in 4 years maximum.

 

[brianhos]

Market will probably stay pretty active until interest rates change, we moved last week. I have a 2.0% mortgage. That is less than inflation.

 

[BCClone]

It's crazy to see some of the ripples that are occurring across all pieces of the markets. I wonder if we'll see a little bit of a transition away from the ultra lean, just-in-time inventory approach a lot of places were doing.

I am nervous a little about buying on my upcoming move, mainly because it's not going to be a long term house (ie, I'm not going to just weather out a drop in price for 15 years) since I know I'm moving in 4 years maximum.

The companies will stay with lean inventories but not by choice. Metal is still having Jane rationing going on. Many are ordering product but still don’t get 100% of orders. Getting better but when companies are getting 30-40% of weekly orders, it takes awhile to just get to 100% of weekly needs let along build some inventory.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I am considering applying for this job in Salem, Oregon that is in a completely different industry. Doing Criminal Justice type work which is closer to what I went to school for.

The area between Portland and Salem is beautiful.

My wife and I went through there once for one day and she still talks about wanting to move there.

 

[xr4ticlone]

I had someone do some basic wood finishing work on my house this weekend (socal) at the agreed upon price, only to complain to me afterward they only made $100 after they paid for supplies and $100 an hour wasn't worth coming out. Not worth it to make $400 profit in four hours.

Hell, my brother is in MC area. Wanted a fire pit out of pavers & put a 5' paver border around the 15'x15' cement pad patio. Guy told him $34K. And when he asked when they could do it...'well, we really aren't taking jobs under $50k right now...anything else you want?'

That was LAST summer. He did it all for $8k plus his labor. Took him about 1 week or so with some help from his kids.

There is no decent help anymore. My oldest is 18. He could do about anything educationally he wanted to. But he doesn't want to be in an office. And I know that he'll make more doing septic installations or mechanic work than 90% of college grads. With little or no college debt.

 

[RLD4ISU]

Hell, my brother is in MC area. Wanted a fire pit out of pavers & put a 5' paver border around the 15'x15' cement pad patio. Guy told him $34K. And when he asked when they could do it...'well, we really aren't taking jobs under $50k right now...anything else you want?'

That was LAST summer. He did it all for $8k plus his labor. Took him about 1 week or so with some help from his kids.

There is no decent help anymore. My oldest is 18. He could do about anything educationally he wanted to. But he doesn't want to be in an office. And I know that he'll make more doing septic installations or mechanic work than 90% of college grads. With little or no college debt.

I think decent help is out there, but those are the ones booked out for quite awhile.

You can make excellent money working in the trades. I think it's just beginning to see the effects of boomer retirement - added to increased demand. A couple of our sons' friends decided college was not for them and went into different trades. They don't regret the decision, either.

My husband took the picture below at a 2019 CURT Conference (Construction Users Roundtable).

 

[I@ST1]

I think decent help is out there, but those are the ones booked out for quite awhile.

You can make excellent money working in the trades. I think it's just beginning to see the effects of boomer retirement - added to increased demand. A couple of our sons' friends decided college was not for them and went into different trades. They don't regret the decision, either.

My husband took the picture below at a 2019 CURT Conference (Construction Users Roundtable).

View attachment 88930

I think 60k is low for Trained and Skilled Workers. I have friends in the trades and they make it into the 6 figures each year. The key is being trained and skilled. Trained and Skilled Workers are in demand.

 

[wxman1]

I posted this in it's own thread on the real estate board but if you know anyone that is looking for a nice starter home on the far NE side of CR let me know!

 

[MJ29]

Yes, but we lost a generation of them during the recession. Lack of middle-career professionals coupled with retiring boomers during the pandemic means a shortage. It's not a "no one wants to work anyone", it's a "we lost a million potential workers ago".

I agree with this. Trades and skilled positions were not emphasized when I was in high school .... it was college or bust even though I know there were people in my class who had the aptitude for a skilled trade. There was NO ONE encouraging them to seek it. Our society needs to stop viewing college as the holy grail and only post-high school option.

 

[KnappShack]

I agree with this. Trades and skilled positions were not emphasized when I was in high school .... it was college or bust even though I know there were people in my class who had the aptitude for a skilled trade. There was NO ONE encouraging them to seek it. Our society needs to stop viewing college as the holy grail and only post-high school option.

My school had industrial arts as a path. In my town that was a path a lot of kids took.

It's my understanding the IA program was stopped. Not sure if that's true, but if it is then I can totally see why students would drop out and go get paid to learn their trade

 

[Gunnerclone]

I agree with this. Trades and skilled positions were not emphasized when I was in high school .... it was college or bust even though I know there were people in my class who had the aptitude for a skilled trade. There was NO ONE encouraging them to seek it. Our society needs to stop viewing college as the holy grail and only post-high school option.

I don’t like the term “skilled trades”. Is an electrician a skilled trade? A mason? A car mechanic? Those jobs are still hell on your body and the mental health considerations are many. You might be “skilled” but a good portion of people you are around all day are methed out/alcoholic laborers. Your boss might be both of those things no matter how skilled you are. There is a ton of politics in the trades (not red v blue, although that probably exists now too) It’s exhausting both physically and mentally.

 

[BCClone]

I agree with this. Trades and skilled positions were not emphasized when I was in high school .... it was college or bust even though I know there were people in my class who had the aptitude for a skilled trade. There was NO ONE encouraging them to seek it. Our society needs to stop viewing college as the holy grail and only post-high school option.

Many HS guidance counselors are just plain awful. They don't really guide, they want to do the counseling part when they talk about your issues. My oldest couldn't get any info out of ours (oldest thankfully ended at ISU with the same major as me) and my daughter who is a freshman at ISU gave up on him since she wanted to lock things down earlier (know where she wanted to go at the start of her junior year) and just went off what I knew from when I was there and from what her brother needed.

The school also allows the students like 1 college visit as a junior and 2-3 as a senior. I think that is kinda off, let them explore things as a junior (I would say sophomore also, so they can get a clue about things) and they will start to see the trades as a better fit possibly. High school guidance hasn't really changed from when I was there a long long time ago.

 

[KnappShack]

I agree with this. Trades and skilled positions were not emphasized when I was in high school .... it was college or bust even though I know there were people in my class who had the aptitude for a skilled trade. There was NO ONE encouraging them to seek it. Our society needs to stop viewing college as the holy grail and only post-high school option.

Is this because the schools are graded by college admission numbers?

I honestly don't know. I think of my high school experience (rode in on horseback....leather football helmets, etc) and we had a pretty high drop out rate. There was a block of kids that were going to work the line and didn't care about anything else. So they moved on.

My old school ranks hella low on every scale I see. One reason is that drop out rate.

Maybe a better way to grade a high school is to talk about college admissions/tests and employment numbers

 

[BCClone]

Is this because the schools are graded by college admission numbers?

I honestly don't know. I think of my high school experience (rode in on horseback....leather football helmets, etc) and we had a pretty high drop out rate. There was a block of kids that were going to work the line and didn't care about anything else. So they moved on.

My old school ranks hella low on every scale I see. One reason is that drop out rate.

Maybe a better way to grade a high school is to talk about college admissions/tests and employment numbers

I have an opinion that is going to probably get me lit up, but I will take the dumbs and push back. I think a major part of this is the treat everyone the same mentality by high schools. What I mean by this is, you know by the end of their sophomore year that 1/3 of the kids will be going into the workforce directly out of HS. You also have a good feel that 1/3 of them will be going into a college. You don't just know a third will, but you have an extremely good idea which kids are in those thirds. That leaves about 1/3 that could go either way and a trade school is probably an extremely solid choice for several of them, but the guidance counselors say they have to do the same thing for everyone. My opinion is, no you don't really need to do the exact same guidance for everyone. Walk them through the steps similarly, yes. Give the exact same steps all the way through, no.

Our counselor is hell bent on student debt is 100% the devil that he tells kids that having the least amount of debt out of school is priority number one. This leads a lot of kids into community colleges that just give you the prep classes but nothing very much into a typical bachelor degree. For those determined to get a bachelors, he is hurting them, IMO. Many kids end up with an extra semester or year going this route because the credits transfer, but not necessarily the classes so they get to retake too many. I understand that student debt is negative, but leaving with 5-10k of debt should not derail you from what suits you best. Besides, if you have to go another semester/year, you have blown any savings anyhow.

I think the schools wait too long to start being realistic with many students. They will talk about work force stuff to kids like mine that are a lock to go to a four year school and talk about colleges to those with a 1.1 HS gpa by the end of their sophomore year. Sometimes guiding a kid is also being realistic with a kid.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I have an opinion that is going to probably get me lit up, but I will take the dumbs and push back. I think a major part of this is the treat everyone the same mentality by high schools. What I mean by this is, you know by the end of their sophomore year that 1/3 of the kids will be going into the workforce directly out of HS. You also have a good feel that 1/3 of them will be going into a college. You don't just know a third will, but you have an extremely good idea which kids are in those thirds. That leaves about 1/3 that could go either way and a trade school is probably an extremely solid choice for several of them, but the guidance counselors say they have to do the same thing for everyone. My opinion is, no you don't really need to do the exact same guidance for everyone. Walk them through the steps similarly, yes. Give the exact same steps all the way through, no.

Our counselor is hell bent on student debt is 100% the devil that he tells kids that having the least amount of debt out of school is priority number one. This leads a lot of kids into community colleges that just give you the prep classes but nothing very much into a typical bachelor degree. For those determined to get a bachelors, he is hurting them, IMO. Many kids end up with an extra semester or year going this route because the credits transfer, but not necessarily the classes so they get to retake too many. I understand that student debt is negative, but leaving with 5-10k of debt should not derail you from what suits you best. Besides, if you have to go another semester/year, you have blown any savings anyhow.

I think the schools wait too long to start being realistic with many students. They will talk about work force stuff to kids like mine that are a lock to go to a four year school and talk about colleges to those with a 1.1 HS gpa by the end of their sophomore year. Sometimes guiding a kid is also being realistic with a kid.

This is not a disagreement with your post. Good points made. However the average debt for a bachelors degree is like 25k.

 

[KnappShack]

I have an opinion that is going to probably get me lit up, but I will take the dumbs and push back. I think a major part of this is the treat everyone the same mentality by high schools. What I mean by this is, you know by the end of their sophomore year that 1/3 of the kids will be going into the workforce directly out of HS. You also have a good feel that 1/3 of them will be going into a college. You don't just know a third will, but you have an extremely good idea which kids are in those thirds. That leaves about 1/3 that could go either way and a trade school is probably an extremely solid choice for several of them, but the guidance counselors say they have to do the same thing for everyone. My opinion is, no you don't really need to do the exact same guidance for everyone. Walk them through the steps similarly, yes. Give the exact same steps all the way through, no.

Our counselor is hell bent on student debt is 100% the devil that he tells kids that having the least amount of debt out of school is priority number one. This leads a lot of kids into community colleges that just give you the prep classes but nothing very much into a typical bachelor degree. For those determined to get a bachelors, he is hurting them, IMO. Many kids end up with an extra semester or year going this route because the credits transfer, but not necessarily the classes so they get to retake too many. I understand that student debt is negative, but leaving with 5-10k of debt should not derail you from what suits you best. Besides, if you have to go another semester/year, you have blown any savings anyhow.

I think the schools wait too long to start being realistic with many students. They will talk about work force stuff to kids like mine that are a lock to go to a four year school and talk about colleges to those with a 1.1 HS gpa by the end of their sophomore year. Sometimes guiding a kid is also being realistic with a kid.

Probably need to be careful with that "realistic" message and who's delivering. You have a counselor who's the "Devil". Want that person laying down the tough love on 15 yr olds?

I get where your coming from. The devil would be in the details. Mix in some parents who are not engaged or overly engaged and it could be mess and a half.

 

[SCNCY]

At my high school, trades weren’t pushed either. Even though we had facilities and classrooms for things like autos, wood shop and some others, the push was for college.

We need to really focus education at the community college level for trades. And also allow for easier immigration for people to fill said trades.