Housing market

SCNCY

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I know it's fairly recent, but seems like the rapid rise in interest rates would create some downward pressure on the housing market? Anecdotally, two homes in my neighborhood have sold recently, but only after reducing their initial listing price.

I think a decent amount of homes are no longer getting those outrageous over asking offers that we were seeing last year. I have noticed some homes being on market for a little longer, or selling for slightly under asking. Even when we sold our house in March, we only got 1 offer; it was only a little over 3% over asking (we also listed our house for $78k more than when we bought it only a year ago with improvements); and we had water views. Even the comps in our neighborhood, the final offers were only minimally over asking.

I think what we will see is lower demand, and thus a slowing of housing value increasing to a more normal amount. But the amount of houses getting offers at 10, 20%+ over asking are very limited.
 

Sigmapolis

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People look at the total payment they pay to their escrow account. Rising interest rates means that home values will likely stop rising. Much of the rush to purchase was to lock in a lower interest rate. There are no longer low interest rates to lock in.

This is the most sensible post you've ever made, @Stormin.
 

Sigmapolis

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Not really. Most people don’t look at the total payment that they pay to the escrow account. That’s actually the last thing most people look at.

Maybe I misinterpreted him, but the way I read it was people look at the monthly payment they need to own the home (in principal, interest, property taxes, insurance, and maybe utilities) and see what they think they can afford given their income. Increasing rates jacks up the interest payments and, therefore, increases the monthly cost of ownership. Something has to give, and the only logical category in my list to give would be the principal, so therefore the higher interest rates puts downward pressure on prices.
 

mynameisjonas

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Maybe I misinterpreted him, but the way I read it was people look at the monthly payment they need to own the home (in principal, interest, property taxes, insurance, and maybe utilities) and see what they think they can afford given their income. Increasing rates jacks up the interest payments and, therefore, increases the monthly cost of ownership. Something has to give, and the only logical category in my list to give would be the principal, so therefore the higher interest rates puts downward pressure on prices.
Escrow account is only taxes and insurance. Since it’s Stormin who posted it I will nitpick.
 
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Beernuts

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I closed on a new purchase 6 months ago at 3.125% (30yr). Got in just in the nick of time it appears.
Farm real estate loans have also made a huge jump. A local ag banker was in my office last week and although farmland is still selling at high levels, he thought it may slow down the aggressiveness we've seen.
 

chadw1975

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Just wait until everyones property taxes jump up in the next six-twelve months. Even if you did not buy or sell a home in the last couple of years you will be affected by the housing market of the last few years. Your home is likely to be assessed at a higher value because of recent comparable sales meaning a higher tax bill. Property taxes in Iowa are in arrears so higher bills are still coming. The amount of your total payment on your home does matter and is used to determine any amount of financing you qualify for. So two components of your PITI calculation (principal, interest, insurance and taxes) will go up without any control by you. Doesn’t affect those that already have a loan, but will drive down the amount of a loan that new buyers will be able to achieve going forward.
 

keepngoal

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I closed on a new purchase 6 months ago at 3.125% (30yr). Got in just in the nick of time it appears.
Same with us, it worked out especially for the size of house we required.
Wife and I are on the outside looking in on home ownership. Seems like we might've missed our window for the foreseeable future. Unless we want a super ridiculous monthly payment.
5.5% isn't super ridiculous, yes it isn't 'free' money, however its a decent rate for a house. changes may need made to one of the three buckets (of which you have control) for your monthly payment amount; size of down payment, price of house, location of house.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Farm real estate loans have also made a huge jump. A local ag banker was in my office last week and although farmland is still selling at high levels, he thought it may slow down the aggressiveness we've seen.
Won’t for a bit. $7-8 corn means A LOT cash in peoples pockets. Commodity prices matter more than interest rates.
 

MJ29

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Wife and I are on the outside looking in on home ownership. Seems like we might've missed our window for the foreseeable future. Unless we want a super ridiculous monthly payment.

I feel this. We are feeling cramped in our townhome, but what we need/want is beyond our financial comfort zone at the moment. I'm starting to think we're stuck for a few more years.
 

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