Expansion

[Judoka]

So your statement is based upon the "what if" game? If teams had stumbled?

All 5 conferences almost got two teams in, "what if".

The chance of them both getting in wasn't "about the same" as the chance of neither getting in. That's saying that it was a coin flip if any of the 4 teams that made the BCS playoff stumbled. They clearly were 4 of the best teams in the nation, so it wouldn't have been a 50% chance that they stumble.

I understand you're just talking up your conference, it's reasonable.

I know you're just trolling, but I'll humor you.

Going into the last week of the season the playoff committee standings were:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Florida State
5. Ohio State
6. Baylor
7. Arizona
8. Michigan State
9. Kansas State
10. Mississippi State

ACC: Florida State had been winning by the skin of their teeth and everyone was looking for any reason to drop them. With a win they were in but the ACC had no one at all who might have stepped into their spot if they stumbled. The ACC had no possibility of getting more than one team in, and a strong probability of getting no teams in

SEC: Alabama already had a loss on their schedule and Mississippi State was too far back to jump up in their absense. With a loss Alabama might have somehow still sneaked in because SEC but it wouldn't have been a sure thing. With a win they were in but with a loss there would have been no other SEC teams waiting in the wings. The SEC had no possibility of getting more than one team in, and a chance of getting no teams in.

B1G: Ohio State was on the outside going into that last week, don't forget that. It took Wisconsin rolling over for them and the committee doing some mental gymnastics for them to get that 4th spot. A win didn't assure them a spot and a loss would have knocked them out completely. There were some extreme possibilities that could have pushed Michigan State up to the top 4, but those possibilities included Ohio State losing. Going into the last week the B1G was on the outside looking in, with a chance at one team and no chance at all for two teams

Pac-12: Like Alabama, Oregon already had a loss. With a win they were in but with a loss they would have been questionable. And Arizona had two losses. So like Michigan State there were some corner cases that would have put them in the top four with a win over Oregon, it would have been at the expense of Oregon getting a spot. So the Pac-12 was looking at no possibility of getting more than one team in, and a chance of no teams getting in.

Big 12: With the #3 and #6 schools, who did not play each other that week, the Big 12 was in a great spot to get two teams in, and should have been assured at least one spot. TCU did nothing to merit dropping in the polls and Baylor was waiting in the wings at #6 in case a pair of teams stumbled. There were a number of reasonable possibilities going into the last weekend, the most likely being Florida State losing and Wisconsin actually showing up, where the Big XII would have gotten two teams into the playoffs.

If you ran the last weekend of the season 20 times there would be multiple occasions where the Big XII got two teams into the playoffs. Last season was an aberration with both on field results and politics playing against the Big XII. Ohio State had no argument to even be in the playoffs over TCU, and that isn't changed by their win. TCU had a significantly better resume up to that point.

 

[RustShack]

Except, with Boren's comments, you're contradicting yourself, since your second post is pretty much his position. We need to expand, but we need to be selective about it.

No they don't contradict themselves at all. There aren't schools available worthy to expand. They don't want to expand just to expand.

 

[BisonCardinal]

I am seeing people talk about P4. I am assuming that with the possible departure of Texas and the Okies, that some think the Big 12 will cease to be a P5 conference. Are you guys at all concerned about that possibility? If those three leave, the Big 12 will survive, won't it?

 

[Rogue52]

Reading LandThieves is pretty entertaining. A bunch of whiners who are upset they can't beat Baylor or TCU anymore and its all the Big 12's fault for screwing up their recruiting. Need SECSECSEC to recruit now.

Someone should tell them that no high schoolers remember Stoops from 2002 and it's cooler to play Briles style football at Baylor or TCU.

The fans also complain about being apathetic to having to play in Ames, Stillwater, Waco, Manhattan, etc. No interesting matchups now that A&M, Nebraska, and Mizzou are gone. Losing brings out a lot of new complaints.

 

[Stormin]

I am seeing people talk about P4. I am assuming that with the possible departure of Texas and the Okies, that some think the Big 12 will cease to be a P5 conference. Are you guys at all concerned about that possibility? If those three leave, the Big 12 will survive, won't it?

Texas is not departing and neither is Oklahoma.

 

[CarrollCyclone]

Regarding expansion and TV networks and contracts and such, a pretty good read on whether or not ESPN's bubble is about to burst:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo.../is-espn-a-giant-bubble-about-to-burst-071215

 

[Havs]

I'm not sure why people are so much against BYU and Cincinnati.

BYU adds Utah and a sizeable number of tv sets nationwide

Cincy adds a major metro and tv sets in Ohio and Kentucky. They aren't OSU and UK, but networks will suddenly choose in Ohio to play a UC/Texas game over Minnesota/Nebraska.

 

[cykadelic2]

Regarding expansion and TV networks and contracts and such, a pretty good read on whether or not ESPN's bubble is about to burst:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo.../is-espn-a-giant-bubble-about-to-burst-071215

This not only impacts greatly impacts ESPN but the SECN, BTN and PACN were built upon the premium CATV/SAT model where the majority of their revenues are derived from subscribers that don't watch those channels. It also makes recent SEC and B10 expansion look more questionable every day. The only reason the B10 added Rutgers was for BTN premium cable subs.

This also neuters any talk of a future Big 12 Network based upon the traditional premium cable sub model and also explains why the ACC has not been able to get their conference network launched. And this essentially neuters any benefits of B12 expansion.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I'm not sure why people are so much against BYU and Cincinnati.

BYU adds Utah and a sizeable number of tv sets nationwide

Cincy adds a major metro and tv sets in Ohio and Kentucky. They aren't OSU and UK, but networks will suddenly choose in Ohio to play a UC/Texas game over Minnesota/Nebraska.

Just my opinion, but for me, it's BYU's location. I agree that I think they'd bring a good amount of TV viewers as well as a nationally competitive program. I don't think the "no Sunday games" would be that much of an issue. But ... after adding West Virginia, I just don't think it would be smart to go west. I may be old-fashioned, but the historical idea of conferences was like-minded institutions situated in the same general geographic area. Provo to Morgantown is a long, long, loooooong freakin' way. We all laughed at the Big East when they wanted to add Boise State and San Diego State. It's just not workable.

Cincinnati ... I just don't have strong feelings about them. And I think the rest of the nation agrees with me. They may be one of the best options remaining (along with UConn, perhaps), but taking what's left over is probably not the smartest thing the Big 12 could do.

 

[thrillcat]

Not sure if this has been brought up, not going to go through the 36 pages to check...

My brother lives in northern Colorado and he mentioned that Colorado State is really pushing to upgrade their facilities so they can push to join the Big 12. New FB stadium in progress right now. http://www.coloradoan.com/story/new...ado-state-campus-stadium-renderings/26465821/

Thoughts on CSU?

 

[StratCY]

Not sure if this has been brought up, not going to go through the 36 pages to check...

My brother lives in northern Colorado and he mentioned that Colorado State is really pushing to upgrade their facilities so they can push to join the Big 12. New FB stadium in progress right now. http://www.coloradoan.com/story/new...ado-state-campus-stadium-renderings/26465821/

Thoughts on CSU?

Colorado would be a heckuva lot closer than Utah, but they don't have the brand that even BYU would bring. We wouldn't be expanding for the sake of expanding, the B12 is looking for brands.

 

[Stormin]

Colorado would be a heckuva lot closer than Utah, but they don't have the brand that even BYU would bring. We wouldn't be expanding for the sake of expanding, the B12 is looking for brands.

I don't think that BYU is on the Big 12 radar at all.

 

[Havs]

Colorado would be a heckuva lot closer than Utah, but they don't have the brand that even BYU would bring. We wouldn't be expanding for the sake of expanding, the B12 is looking for brands.

Getting to 14 could be done by adding Cincy and Memphis* to keep WVU happy, and then adding CSU, BYU and/or UNLV*. Split the league East/West

*UNLV or Memphis

 

[Havs]

Stadium looks pretty cool at CSU. I like the thought of the Rams more and more.

 

[scyclonekid]

Stadium looks pretty cool at CSU. I like the thought of the Rams more and more.

. I have always liked the idea of adding CSU, growing area, good academics, and upgrading facilities I really like their stadium from the pics.

 

[Mesaclone1]

Expansion westward is out...a number of Big 12 officials have been fairly clear on this, including Bowlsby. We are looking to the East exclusively, and most likely will not make a move until the B1G or SEC does so first. Should we miss out on the playoffs a couple more times, that could change.

 

[colbycheese]

I've read that one of the reasons WVU was chosen over Louisville was the fact that WVU is a land grant university. Since half of the conference is either a land grant school (ISU, WVU, KSU, OSU) or at least is an ag school (TTech), I'd expect that to figure in to some extent. I'd like Colorado State to be added, and I think the 5 ag school presidents would definitely have the same thoughts.

I have no problem with Cincy being added. It's a decent school and adds some good markets.

As far as academic prestige goes, Tulane would be a good choice since it's really the only remaining AAU school, and is in a good recruiting footprint for the conference. I sort of doubt that's going to happen though.

If the Big 12 adds 2 among Cincy, CSU, and Tulane I'd be content from both a football standpoint and an academic standpoint.

 

[CyFan61]

I've read that one of the reasons WVU was chosen over Louisville was the fact that WVU is a land grant university. Since half of the conference is either a land grant school (ISU, WVU, KSU, OSU) or at least is an ag school (TTech), I'd expect that to figure in to some extent. I'd like Colorado State to be added, and I think the 5 ag school presidents would definitely have the same thoughts.

I have no problem with Cincy being added. It's a decent school and adds some good markets.

As far as academic prestige goes, Tulane would be a good choice since it's really the only remaining AAU school, and is in a good recruiting footprint for the conference. I sort of doubt that's going to happen though.

If the Big 12 adds 2 among Cincy, CSU, and Tulane I'd be content from both a football standpoint and an academic standpoint.

The Big 12 should not even remotely consider academic prestige when expanding. There's zero reason to.

I would love to see Tulane have success in football and basketball and grow its fanbase. It would then become a possible expansion candidate (and we could do a lot worse than New Orleans as a conference).

 

[NEIACyclone]

I propose adding 4 teams. BYU and Boise state, both major brands and teams from the West. Add Cincy for eastern exposure and a teammate of sorts for WVU. My last team would have to be Houston, I know we have Texas saturated but I like them better than the Memphis option

 

[cykadelic2]

Expansion westward is out...a number of Big 12 officials have been fairly clear on this, including Bowlsby. We are looking to the East exclusively, and most likely will not make a move until the B1G or SEC does so first. Should we miss out on the playoffs a couple more times, that could change.

Given the cord cutting explosion and the revenue pressure on ESPN and Fox (see Clay Travis article posted by CW and other recently posted industry articles), the B12 will not expand unless it is full blown merger of multiple conferences to negotiate new TV deals at the end of existing GORs. The only exception would be if FSU/Clemson can get out the ACC GOR or if LSU/Arkansas decide to leave the SEC (who doesn't have a GOR).

The wheels have been shot off the existing CATV/SAT premium cable sub model for existing and planned conference networks.