ESPN, Fox Open Discussions for Next Big 12 Deal

[exCyDing]

Could also be the Big12 removed a disadvantage. Seems to me it makes Pac12 & Big12 in equal position from a contract logistics perspective.

Both can negotiate separately with their current media partners and get firm #'s. If the Big12 feels it can get substantially more from ESPN/Fox great. But it may need to be significant to get Pac12 schools to jump.

IMO Fox & ESPN would value a combination of some Big12 & Pac12 schools the most.

I also think Fox values itself as being a West Coast based sports network and desired having Pac12 games.

I think the PAC schools have to know a number before they make that big of a decision. Institutional changes rarely happen without gaming out all the ramifications. With enough unknowns, the tendency is to not make any decision.

I'd have to think the B12 has good information that they will get a significantly better offer than the PAC.

What would a PAC/B12 combination look like? Probably 12-14 schools, with 4-6 from the PAC and 6-10 from the B12? What would the difference in per school revenue be vs 4-6 PAC schools joining the B12? Who gets cut from the B12? Cinci, WV and UCF get you in the eastern time zone. Houston is probably the least essential of the Texas schools. Would one of the Angry 8 turn out a couple of their own, and who would that be? Iowa St, K-State, Kansas and/or Baylor?

I'd wager the difference between a PAC/B12 Frankenstein vs 16-18 team B12 is negligible. Besides, which party has the greater need? Does the B12 need PAC schools to be the #3 conference more than PAC schools need to not be in the #5 conference?

 

[Win5002]

I think the PAC schools have to know a number before they make that big of a decision. Institutional changes rarely happen without gaming out all the ramifications. With enough unknowns, the tendency is to not make any decision.

I'd have to think the B12 has good information that they will get a significantly better offer than the PAC.

What would a PAC/B12 combination look like? Probably 12-14 schools, with 4-6 from the PAC and 6-10 from the B12? What would the difference in per school revenue be vs 4-6 PAC schools joining the B12? Who gets cut from the B12? Cinci, WV and UCF get you in the eastern time zone. Houston is probably the least essential of the Texas schools. Would one of the Angry 8 turn out a couple of their own, and who would that be? Iowa St, K-State, Kansas and/or Baylor?

I'd wager the difference between a PAC/B12 Frankenstein vs 16-18 team B12 is negligible. Besides, which party has the greater need? Does the B12 need PAC schools to be the #3 conference more than PAC schools need to not be in the #5 conference?

In this scenario think you need all of the leftover and new B12 schools protected. So in that scenario you take the 8 remaining B12, BYU & UH and combine them with 6 or 7 PAC schools(eventually at least 2 of those are going to the B1G). You can then shift over WVU, Cincy and even UCF to the ACC. Nobody is hurt in the existing B12 and only WSU & OSU are left behind. Does ESPN allow 6 ACC schools to leave early and give the new ACC more money to get the other schools to allow it? Maybe by allowing it FOX and ESPN have negotiated a deal to let ESPN steer the two schools they want the most UNC & VA to the SEC and not the B1G. The B1G may be better off with their national plans and the need for football recruiting grounds to get FSU & Miami. FOX doesn't have Florida.

Maybe ESPN creates a conference network for the new B12/PAC AND packages it with the ACC network when selling it to get national distribution for both.

 

[cyphoon]

Yup.

My guess is that ESPN or Fox pushes to move some Pac 12 teams east and lets OUT go early.

I can see ESPN pushing for that, but would Fox be on board with OuT leaving early? They would lose some valuable content that they have an agreement to broadcast.

H

 

[WAHawk]

I think Texas and OU are here thru the current GOR ending in June 2025. So two more football and basketball seasons after this one. I don’t see them paying a huge penalty to buy out 2 or even 1 year early. Plus ESPN, Sankey from the SEC and OuT got slapped around by the lawyers after they got busted for their covert attempted Big 12 screw job.

Fox doesn't get blood on its hands if ESPN delivers a killing blow to the Pac

 

[Win5002]

This got me thinking- is it possible that they could come to a deal that gets the four corners, and then allows for expansion (also rumored) in an attempt to lure Washington and Oregon if they're left hanging by the Big 10?

FOX can have OR & UW content at a smaller price in the B12 thats for sure.

Also, what's better for tv ratings for networks with OR/UW content and OR/UW schools concerned about brand valuation for future realignment? A Texas based league or a California, scratch that Bay Area based college football league? hmmmm, thats a real tough one.

OR & UW are at their high points for brand value going forward. OR & UW are overvalued now due to USC mediocre to poor & UCLA's poor recent performance. OR & UW got a higher number of T1 and good T2 games with good broadcast windows because of this. The ratings in 2024 for a good OR or UW team will not be as high due to the greatly diminished LA market for the PAC. These two schools should have this in the back of their mind, and might be open to a B12 league if paid more than the PAC going forward. If athletics and not academics are the driving force.

 

[heitclone]

In one of his media day interviews, I wanna say it was with the Sic Em guys (worth checking out) ,Yormark talked about how he likes to do business. It's a process and this seems like the first step in exactly how he described things going. This won't be quick, it's just the initial touch base.

 

[CascadeClone]

https://247sports.com/college/texas...mpact-Texas-Oklahoma-departure-SEC-192343044/

Article says early exit payout for each would be $170MM. Thats $340MM total. For 10 schools, $34MM each. I’ve got to believe conceding that type of money comes with ample funding from ESPN to make up for it.

The exit fees are $85M each, and I believe that is a solid number. But the GoR number in the article at $85M each looks like a guess. But thinking about it a bit- when OuT first happened, iirc the thoughtful math was the conference makes ~$350M a year, and OuT was worth 50% (Bowlsby set that price point, probably a ceiling) then that's ~$175M per year. So that IS in the $85M each range...

Also, whatever number it turns out to be, you'd divide by 8, not 10

So whatever the new contract is per team without OuT impacts... and you add $340M more in exit fees and GoR settlement for 8 schools... that's $42.5M each. Maybe spread that out over 5 years is an extra $8M per Hateful 8 team annually. That seems like ESPN could fund that amount in exchange for OuT and lots of good basketball content.

 

[Klubber]

Notre Dame isn't moving off 1:30 CT so you'd be looking at 10:00 AM CT kicks. That pretty much takes care of NBC.

CBS has 4 Mountain West games plus 15-16 Big Ten games. When you factor in their other commitments I don't see a consistent window available from them either.

Maybe somebody will get creative but I think the Big 12s best bet is that FOX becomes their majority football partner.

CBS has 4 MW games total for the entire season, not 4 per week.

ND could easily start a little later to accommodate an 11 AM lead in.

 

[MugNight]

The exit fees are $85M each, and I believe that is a solid number. But the GoR number in the article at $85M each looks like a guess. But thinking about it a bit- when OuT first happened, iirc the thoughtful math was the conference makes ~$350M a year, and OuT was worth 50% (Bowlsby set that price point, probably a ceiling) then that's ~$175M per year. So that IS in the $85M each range...

Also, whatever number it turns out to be, you'd divide by 8, not 10

So whatever the new contract is per team without OuT impacts... and you add $340M more in exit fees and GoR settlement for 8 schools... that's $42.5M each. Maybe spread that out over 5 years is an extra $8M per Hateful 8 team annually. That seems like ESPN could fund that amount in exchange for OuT and lots of good basketball content.

Good catch on the 8… even better! Production value of b-ball on ESPN+ seems better than football. Either way, I can’t see the XII letting OUT go early without something decent in return.

 

[tman24]

What would be great about that would be you'd never see the same ad in a loop like 3 times in a row during a commercial break.

There was one cruise line ad on Pluto that they showed literally non-stop.

No different than FSN back in the day. Non stop cyclone rake and tac glasses commercials.

 

[Kinch]

It was my understanding all games would be on TikTok - each play gets its own video, and you just click them in succession. We'll make billions.

Can you imagine the tiktok challenge during the baylor iowa state game?

 

[Gunnerclone]

No different than FSN back in the day. Non stop cyclone rake and tac glasses commercials.

Those were the good old days.

 

[RustShack]

Why are we even talking to ESPN/Fox? I thought we were going with Netflix or Prime.

You have to talk to them first no matter what or when it starts. They get exclusive negotiating rights before it goes to open bid.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

What continues to suck in all of this is the "what could've been"

The original Big 12 was a really good football conference. Stacked.

But the kids couldn't play nice.

Nebraska was 75% of the problem and 100% the biggest cry babies...

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I'm sure this will push Houston to the Pac12, as the Pac12 mouthpieces keep spouting Houston as an expansion option.

There will be no reason t bring in Houston. Get the 4 corners and possibly UW and Oregon and then sit back and wait for the ACC to collapse as their media deal gets closer to ending.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Here's how I would see it:

Oklahoma, Texas -> SEC
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado -> Big 12
Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal -> B1G

Fox happy because it didn't bid on Pac-12 and can get brands added to B1G + B12. B1G doesn't look like an "aggressor."

ESPN overpays to get Oklahoma and Texas early.

Big 12 gets a solid deal and becomes 3rd conference in pay behind B1G & SEC.

Washington State and Oregon State probably are the losers here, but pretty much everyone else gets what they're looking for.

I'm not convinced the B1G will take all four of those teams. My money is on Stanford and Oregon. Cal will remain independent and UW is forced tot he Big 12.

 

[VeloClone]

No different than FSN back in the day. Non stop cyclone rake and tac glasses commercials.

This should give some Cyclone fans a seizure...

Bud Light TV Spot, 'Bud Light + Lady Gaga Dive Bar Tour: Joanne'

On Oct. 27, 2016, fans can watch Lady Gaga perform "Joanne" on Bud Light's Facebook Live as part of her Dive Bar Tour.

www.ispot.tv

 

[1UNI2ISU]

CBS has 4 MW games total for the entire season, not 4 per week.

ND could easily start a little later to accommodate an 11 AM lead in.

Of course they don't have 4 MW games per week. They've got 20 total games they are committed to over 13 weeks and there isn't a scenario where they consistently show 3 games in one day, that's not CBS's MO.

Notre Dame has a history of being completely flexible so I'm sure they'll just go ahead and move game times to accommodate a league that they clearly think they're better than.

I'd love to be proven wrong if it ups the dollars that the Big 12 gets but I'm pretty confident that both networks got exactly what they wanted with the deals they've already signed.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I'm not convinced the B1G will take all four of those teams. My money is on Stanford and Oregon. Cal will remain independent and UW is forced tot he Big 12.

Cal would love nothing more than some kind of working relationship with the Ivy League.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

No different than FSN back in the day. Non stop cyclone rake and tac glasses commercials.

Gotta sneak in some tactical flashlights too.