Dow 30,000

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by RonBurgundy, Jul 11, 2019.

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Poll: Dow 30,000

  1. By End of This Year

    15 vote(s)
    10.6%
  2. 1st Half 2020

    24 vote(s)
    16.9%
  3. 2nd Half 2020

    21 vote(s)
    14.8%
  4. 2021 - 2022

    18 vote(s)
    12.7%
  5. Won't Hit It In Next 3 Years, Recession Will Knock It Back

    64 vote(s)
    45.1%
  1. Althetuna

    Althetuna Well-Known Member
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    But the catch is how long the dispersements last.

    The protection members receive isn't from the actions of the market. I've already said that. The value of pensions rise and fall. The protection comes from the varying lifespan of it members.
     
  2. Althetuna

    Althetuna Well-Known Member
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    I've notice a trend in your posts. The longer the post, the less it says.
     
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  3. Althetuna

    Althetuna Well-Known Member
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    #203 Althetuna, Jul 14, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
    I have no idea how your investment plan is structured but I can see you've invested heavily in fear mongering.

    Fyi, contibutors to db plans get yearly reports on the status of the fund.
     
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  4. NodawayRiverClone

    May 1, 2018
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    My disagreement is not with the idea that one can invest in only S&P 500 equities or mutual funds for 30 or more years and have a great nest egg, it's that most people will not. They're just not interested in investing in a way that most advisors do not recommend or they do not have the risk tolerance. If they do have an interest, they'll probably put the minimum in a 401k to get an employer match and then do non-retirement investments - because they love it and/or are good at it.

    Comparing IPERS' return on investments to the 30-year S&P 500 return is immaterial. IPERS' retirement benefits are based on a wages and years of service formula. IPERS' investing is geared toward making a long-term annualized return that funds earned benefits and pays down the unfunded liability. Members like it because they get a nice benefit without worrying about how to invest to get a good return.

    In fact, IPERS encourages members to also save through other means for retirement where they can take as much or as little risk as they like, or at least as much as the fund choices allow.

    The down market risks for defined benefit members is that contribution requirements go up to help recover losses and that political governing bodies, in their ignorance or political stance (IMO), lose their nerve and undermine good governance of db's.
     
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  5. Rabbuk

    Rabbuk Well-Known Member

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    Idk why that one dude is getting panned for espousing 3 different savings plans. Banking on ss doesn't seem like a given for people under 40.
     
  6. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Slander and insult is the last refuge of a crumbling position.

    The risk profile with a DC plan is basically linear... you ride the market.

    The risk profile with a DB plan is nonlinear. Under most normal circumstances, you are fine, but if there is an extreme market upset (see 2008 or 1929), then you bet plenty of public and private pensions are not going to be worth all that much.

    And yep, my thoughts are influenced by my family's experience with Enron.

    I remember you saying your fund can opt to slash benefits in extreme circumstances, which to me makes your fund sound more like a DC fund anyways, even if outwardly structured and managed like a DB plan until something would go wrong.

    And that is probably my ultimate thoughts towards this -- not that they are so different, but that they have become more and more similar over the past few decades and, no matter how clever you try to be, they are both constrained by returns. Somebody else even brought up some DB plans are starting to offer benefits or lump sum payments to survivors and heirs...

    ...just like a DC plan. The lines between them are blurring.

    Given those issues, I do not think we are too far apart really.

    I would be pleasantly surprised if we receive anything from it (31 me/29 spouse).
     
  7. Bestaluckcy

    Bestaluckcy Well-Known Member

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    My wife being a retired teacher is receiving IPERG. I have never worked for an employer that offered a defined benefit plan, so I have had to take responsibility for my retirement needs. Having left the work force I hope we have the necessary needs covered. Some of the questions that leave one wondering are: Will the politicians screw up something that has worked well for a long time in IPERG? Every major stock market in the world has gone bankrupt in the last 200 years with the exception of two (US & UK); is our luck going to run out also? or do we do it different?

    I will let you experts ponder our future. I just hope everyone lives long and prospers. Mrs. Best and I will have to get by irregardless the future. Some of this is beyond ones own doing, and best made plans.
     
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  8. DurangoCy

    DurangoCy Well-Known Member

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    The post I was replying to said that you have to save more with an individual account vs. a defined benefits plan to get the same level of "security". That simply isn't true, because in a defined benefits plan your returns will be lower and you've paid for that security in a lesser account value/payout.

    You also touch on a good point that it's a years of service/contribution formula, that I would guess further erodes the value of the defined benefits plan. I didn't have time to dig into it and didn't want to speculate originally, but I would guess the ROI on money contributed by the worker and state is less still than the 8.5% gain on the IPERs portfolio once fees and expenses are removed. I think the SS is a 1-2% ROI, which is awful.

    As far as the forced savings, that's great, but it will probably be negated by fees and the lesser returns vs. individual accounts to the point where's there's an infinite number of scenarios that we can discuss with the net result is that saving money is smart.

    The point several of us were making is that while these plans are fine and they have a place; the comments that they are superior to individual plans fails to look at the pros and cons to each type of retirement plan. That has fallen on deaf ears.
     
  9. Rabbuk

    Rabbuk Well-Known Member

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    SS isn't really predicated on returns, it's mostly reliant on borrowing from younger workers.
     
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  10. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    I have never understood "it forces you to save" as a benefit of anything.
     
  11. Rabbuk

    Rabbuk Well-Known Member

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    Mostly because we don't want people to die in their old age from having to eat dog food.
     
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  12. DurangoCy

    DurangoCy Well-Known Member

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    Thank you.
     
  13. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    I am iffy on the morality of forcing people to do things that are undeniably good for them.

    We could greatly improve public health and reduce private and public healthcare costs significantly by banning processed sugars and mandating exercise for all residents.

    Yet, we do not. What's the difference?

    Forced savings helps reduce a problem for everybody in the long-term, sure, but so would the program that I just described, if "this is ultimately for the best" is your standard.
     
  14. Rabbuk

    Rabbuk Well-Known Member

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    because everyone undoubtedly needs money to live. It's universally true
     
  15. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Is it? Plenty of societies have existed without currency in human history.

    Good health is pretty necessary to life, too, or else (like money) that life might be a lot shorter and less pleasant than it could be (back to your example of eating dogfood).
     
  16. Rabbuk

    Rabbuk Well-Known Member

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    I mean I'd be fine going to a completely bartering society, but that doesn't seem likely.
     
  17. Cyched

    Cyched Well-Known Member

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    Same pitch used to sell whole life insurance
     
  18. bos

    bos Legend
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    What kind of dog food we talking here? Some of that Rachel Ray stuff doesn’t look half bad. Beggin Strips are too salty though.
     
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  19. ricochet

    ricochet Well-Known Member
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    Are you talking about social security? It might be a lot of things but it isn’t a savings program.
     
  20. ArgentCy

    ArgentCy Well-Known Member
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    A stock market cant really go bankrupt. Even Zimbabwe has a soaring market (In nominal local currency).
     

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