Cancel Mexico Vacation time?

[madguy30]

I've posted a "mark it down" in the other thread that this is going to be 98% over by Memorial Day. By then, a third of the US will have had it, another third will have been vaccinated - this will reduce the spread rate significantly (think permutation math); basically a level of herd immunity will reduce spread. On top of that, the weather will be improved - more sunshine, people outside more, healthier immune systems in general. That will help too.

I did some amateur math on this for work back in mid-December when the vaccines first were approved, and the numbers so far agree. Even now new cases are about 50% of the peak from early January.

Put it all together and it will be a "mission accomplished" moment at Memorial Day. We will reflect on the lives lost, the economic damage, etc. Then life back to mostly normal for summer - no masks after that I think, except maybe special circumstances. Travel back to normal. Hopefully they will be able to manage it with just contact tracing and such after that point.

Pretty confident about this, unless one of the variants turns into an entire new thing with zero help from existing vaccines or prior infection. Cross your fingers!

Many countries not hardly getting vaccinated along with people being fine with spreading it will likely allow for it to keep changing so I'm not holding out hope for it to be like 2019 by the summer. The reported responses to the newest variants are so far all over the place so maybe we'll know more in like 3 months.

Also with more prone to be reinfected by the newest ones, I haven't seen whether or not the reinfections were mild or not, i.e. there's still some protection for a past infection.

Hopefully the weather warms up in time for folks to get outside to slow the UK variant as vaccination increases.

 

[Shawker]

We were planning to travel to Mexico later this month but can't risk being stuck in Mexico for an additional two weeks if one of us were to happen to test positive prior to coming back.

Instead we are going to the US Virgin Islands since it is a territory and isn't included in the testing restriction. No all inclusive resorts down there but should be beautiful scenery (until I take my shirt off).

 

[Chitowncy]

I've posted a "mark it down" in the other thread that this is going to be 98% over by Memorial Day. By then, a third of the US will have had it, another third will have been vaccinated - this will reduce the spread rate significantly (think permutation math); basically a level of herd immunity will reduce spread. On top of that, the weather will be improved - more sunshine, people outside more, healthier immune systems in general. That will help too.

I did some amateur math on this for work back in mid-December when the vaccines first were approved, and the numbers so far agree. Even now new cases are about 50% of the peak from early January.

Put it all together and it will be a "mission accomplished" moment at Memorial Day. We will reflect on the lives lost, the economic damage, etc. Then life back to mostly normal for summer - no masks after that I think, except maybe special circumstances. Travel back to normal. Hopefully they will be able to manage it with just contact tracing and such after that point.

Pretty confident about this, unless one of the variants turns into an entire new thing with zero help from existing vaccines or prior infection. Cross your fingers!

Hope you're right, CascadeClone, and there's a lot of truth in your logic. I just don't think we'll get there by Memorial Day. I don't think it will be "normal" by the summer, but I am holding out hope for "normal" and a packed JTS by next fall!

 

[qwerty]

Just another example of Cancel Culture. Now you want to cancel Mexican vacations.