Can the Big 12 remain viable

[CydeOut]

I just want to say that location is still a factor. Thanks.

Locations matter, but not from a schools proximity to each other standpoint.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Locations matter, but not from a schools proximity to each other standpoint.

I think it does. You think West Virginia likes being in the Big 12?

 

[AlaCyclone]

This is what I think the most viable Big 12 would look like if the 8 leftovers stuck together.

View attachment 87452

In my view the most valuable potential additions are pretty obviously BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. The only other school that might be close to those four is Memphis but I think there is a pretty clear cut top four. BYU I think adds the most value which is why we would put up with such a geographic outlier (but replacing them on this map with Memphis actually makes a pretty good looking conference on the map).

I would expect East and West divisions, with Baylor/Houston and Tech/TCU in each division respectively. This way, every school would have two Texas schools in its division for recruiting, and each division would include either the DFW or Houston metro.

Baylor, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and probably Iowa State would make up the East. That leaves BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, KU, K-State, and Oklahoma State in the West.

ISU and K-State would have a protected crossover rivalry game. Same with Baylor-TCU and Tech-Houston (and everybody else, but IDK how they would shake out).

This league would keep its Autonomy Five distinction (for now) and I believe would get payouts that are significantly larger than the American and still quite a bit less than the Pac-12 or ACC. And obviously, they would be dwarfed by what the B1G and especially the SEC would be distributing.

I like this more than going to the AAC or the MWC. The winner of this conference (and ISU would be predicted to win it this year) would have the inside track to a NY6 Bowl Game in the current format and a great shot to make the 12 team Playoff when it starts.

 

[Crookedhatkid]

I like this more than going to the AAC or the MWC. The winner of this conference (and ISU would be predicted to win in this year) would have the inside track to a NY6 Bowl Game in the current format and a great shot to make the 12 team Playoff when it starts.

As long as the Big 12 doesn’t dissolve the champion goes to the Sugar Bowl until at least 2024.

 

[isucy86]

So in the face of drastically reduced revenues, your want to spend 10s of millions more dollars fighting Disney's lawyers?

If it's the difference between ISU making $40M+ per year over the next 4 years and something significantly less, then hell yes I would sue the SEC and UT/OU. Naturally, that would include subpoena of communications between UT/OU and ESPN.

I don't think it would come to that because I am skeptical OU and Texas will leave before 2025 when the GOR is up.

One reason is the new SEC/ESPN deal for $300 is still a few years away. Why would CBS walk away from their SEC contract when they currently pay $55M? That's a sweetheart deal for CBS

Your same logic holds for Texas and OU. Why would they incur tens of millions of $ in legal fees when in the short-term the SEC TV rights are maybe $10-15M more than the Big12's current deal. Pre-pandemic Big12 schools received around $40M each and I think the Big12 is expecting that in the 2021/22 fiscal year with full FB &MBB seasons.

Lastly, the 12 team playoff is also 3-4 years away and I think the idea of super conferences and realignment don't promote it happening earlier.

 

[HawaiiClone]

This is what I think the most viable Big 12 would look like if the 8 leftovers stuck together.

View attachment 87452

In my view the most valuable potential additions are pretty obviously BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. The only other school that might be close to those four is Memphis but I think there is a pretty clear cut top four. BYU I think adds the most value which is why we would put up with such a geographic outlier (but replacing them on this map with Memphis actually makes a pretty good looking conference on the map).

I would expect East and West divisions, with Baylor/Houston and Tech/TCU in each division respectively. This way, every school would have two Texas schools in its division for recruiting, and each division would include either the DFW or Houston metro.

Baylor, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and probably Iowa State would make up the East. That leaves BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, KU, K-State, and Oklahoma State in the West.

ISU and K-State would have a protected crossover rivalry game. Same with Baylor-TCU and Tech-Houston (and everybody else, but IDK how they would shake out).

This league would keep its Autonomy Five distinction (for now) and I believe would get payouts that are significantly larger than the American and still quite a bit less than the Pac-12 or ACC. And obviously, they would be dwarfed by what the B1G and especially the SEC would be distributing.

Thank you!!

The remaining 8 Big 12 football programs have had national success in the last 15 years and have at least decent fan bases so let's give ourselves credit for that.

 

[BCClone]

Locations matter, but not from a schools proximity to each other standpoint.

If you want visiting teams fans they do.

 

[Cyched]

 

[knowlesjam]

Texa$

 

[Al_4_State]

A reconstituted Big 12 (remaining 8 + best AAC schools) would likely get an undefeated champ into the playoffs.

It will get lesser TV slots (although probably every game will be televised) and less money.

My guess is that if something like that happens, ISU would cut a bunch of sports in order to stay competitive in football and men's basketball. It would actually be a pretty entertaining league, but it would also probably bring in $20-30 million per year per school at best, and any member would be jumping at any chance to get to a higher paying league.

So I don't know what you mean by "viable", but that's what life in that league would look like.

 

[cymonw1980]

Firstly, like most of you I’m thinking the Big 12 is a goner. However, what if the other power 5s decide there is nobody currently worth pulling in? That is a logical stance. So for fun, I suggest the Big 12 do the following:
1) no mercy for Oklahoma and Texas. No negotiations on buyouts. No more favorable treatment and borderline rudeness from referees. Show potential new members that we also treat the big boys with disdain.
2) Bank any revenue forfeitures from OK and TX for future use.
3) go in heavy negotiations with Fox. Let them know we firmly stand with them and that we will provide plenty of games because….
4) expansion to 16 teams…invite UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, BYU, Boise, CSU and one other….Be it SMU, UNLV or LA/Tulane.
5) be as innovative with this as you can. Try to put yourself into a position to get 1 possibly two teams in a playoff…

I would prefer a model where you have 20 teams in two leagues with some kind of relegation rules that moves teams back and fourth between the two leagues to keep best teams playing each other every year.... try to be the best of the rest, more money if you are in the "top" league less if you are in the "lower" league...

At the end of the day, it will not be a power conference and with the changes coming none of this will matter much... "super" leagues or power conferences will get significantly more money (gap will grow significantly in next 5 years between power conf and non power conf). When paying players becomes reality (that is when, not if) smaller leagues simply won't be able to pay players anything close to what they will make at other schools. With transfer rules loosening, even if you find and develop a recruit, they can leave the next year and make $k's ($m's?) going to a power conf.

So, anything that seems viable with a 12 team playoff will quickly become obsolete once rules change.

 

[Dolokaju]

Being innovative? Are you thinking maybe 8-man college football or playing with 2 footballs at the same time?

You may have something with the two footballs at the same time

 

[Dolokaju]

But if I really was going to build a 16 team big 12 w/o Texas and Ok with more like-minded schools, I’d go for this.
1) A&M, Mizzou and Arkansas from SEC
2) Nebraska to come back in hopes they can regain relevance
3) CO, Utah, AZ and ASU on grounds they have more in common with Midwest than West Coast
4) round out with BYU(WV goes to ACC)
-1st 16 team Power conference
-only 4 P5 non-Big 12 teams between Mississippi River and West Coast states.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

A reconstituted Big 12 (remaining 8 + best AAC schools) would likely get an undefeated champ into the playoffs.

It will get lesser TV slots (although probably every game will be televised) and less money.

My guess is that if something like that happens, ISU would cut a bunch of sports in order to stay competitive in football and men's basketball. It would actually be a pretty entertaining league, but it would also probably bring in $20-30 million per year per school at best, and any member would be jumping at any chance to get to a higher paying league.

So I don't know what you mean by "viable", but that's what life in that league would look like.

Getting the Big 12 into the mid-20s of media revenue is actually "viable" in the sense of remaining a league that can keep coaches and be considered a "power" league among the likes of the ACC and Pac-12. I'm not sure if we can hit that number or not. Perhaps some new entity wanting to break into college athletics will be willing to pay a bit of a premium, like Amazon Prime Video exclusively streaming the new Big 12 Game of the Week and paying extra to do so.

It would also be an interesting question, if the B1G, ACC, and Pac-12 all pass on all 8 of the leftovers right now, and we add some combination of UCF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis, etc., whether the league will commit to a lengthy GOR to keep everyone around, or whether the schools will continue to think "Maybe we can get poached" and the league will not have a GOR.

 

[tim_redd]

The 4 texas schools.

 

[Al_4_State]

Getting the Big 12 into the mid-20s of media revenue is actually "viable" in the sense of remaining a league that can keep coaches and be considered a "power" league among the likes of the ACC and Pac-12.

It would also be an interesting question, if the B1G, ACC, and Pac-12 all pass on all 8 of the leftovers right now, and we add some combination of UCF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis, etc., whether the league will commit to a lengthy GOR to keep everyone around, or whether the schools will continue to think "Maybe we can get poached" and the league will not have a GOR.

Yeah, I think so too.

If we can keep the quality of coaches we have, the recruiting won't really fall off. We spent a lot of our life in the Big 12 recruiting against current AAC schools, or at least at that level.

Even with the bookoo bucks the SEC (and to a lesser extent) and Big 10 might get, there's only so many coaching slots and still only 22 guys on the field at a time.

It wouldn't be ideal, but it's not necessarily a death knell. I don't think it's that likely either, but I want to be prepared for it in case.

 

[HawaiiClone]

I would prefer a model where you have 20 teams in two leagues with some kind of relegation rules that moves teams back and fourth between the two leagues to keep best teams playing each other every year.... try to be the best of the rest, more money if you are in the "top" league less if you are in the "lower" league...

At the end of the day, it will not be a power conference and with the changes coming none of this will matter much... "super" leagues or power conferences will get significantly more money (gap will grow significantly in next 5 years between power conf and non power conf). When paying players becomes reality (that is when, not if) smaller leagues simply won't be able to pay players anything close to what they will make at other schools. With transfer rules loosening, even if you find and develop a recruit, they can leave the next year and make $k's ($m's?) going to a power conf.

So, anything that seems viable with a 12 team playoff will quickly become obsolete once rules change.

If it's a pro league, consider what other pro leagues do to maintain balance- salary caps, revenue sharing, luxury taxes.

 

[Mississippi Clone]

If it's a pro league, consider what other pro leagues do to maintain balance- salary caps, revenue sharing, luxury taxes.

but Pro leagues have a commissioner over the league, members generally comply. The NCAA has lost all control, the SEC could give a F about what other programs outside their conference think or do, it will take some time to work it out and for teams like the Clones it could be ugly, not my hope, just potential reality.

 

[Mississippi Clone]

Yeah, I think so too.

If we can keep the quality of coaches we have, the recruiting won't really fall off. We spent a lot of our life in the Big 12 recruiting against current AAC schools, or at least at that level.

Even with the bookoo bucks the SEC (and to a lesser extent) and Big 10 might get, there's only so many coaching slots and still only 22 guys on the field at a time.

It wouldn't be ideal, but it's not necessarily a death knell. I don't think it's that likely either, but I want to be prepared for it in case.

not to be a downer, and I am depressed as much as anyone. How do we keep Campbell if this all goes down, seriously. Gee Matt we really like you and you are a great coach, we know you have other offers, but we know you love ISU so will you take like a one half reduction in salary, and play in a lesser conference, while not getting big time games on National TV, we can still keep the process in place. Good players want to play Big Time CFB. Maybe not the death knell but it won't be good. Unless we can get into a remaining power conference it will be at a lower level, and the Mountain West and the remains of the Big 12 plus Cincinnati, etc are not Power Conferences.

 

[RealisticCy]

A reconstituted Big 12 (remaining 8 + best AAC schools) would likely get an undefeated champ into the playoffs.

It will get lesser TV slots (although probably every game will be televised) and less money.

My guess is that if something like that happens, ISU would cut a bunch of sports in order to stay competitive in football and men's basketball. It would actually be a pretty entertaining league, but it would also probably bring in $20-30 million per year per school at best, and any member would be jumping at any chance to get to a higher paying league.

So I don't know what you mean by "viable", but that's what life in that league would look like.

NCAA has requirements on the number of sports offered to remain at the division 1 level (7 for men and women, or 6 for men and 8 women).....not that the NCAA will have any say in anything in a few years. Indoor and outdoor track and field are counted separately, so we could cut one men's team and three women's teams.