Big XII to add schools within days?

[LLCoolCY]

Dodds has had some good stuff. This tells me that I have no idea what the end game is here....

The 4 adds make sense. Additional adds look desperate to me. Unless there is some kind of plan

I do think the B12 (or tomorrow 14?) should be open to all options though I would rather not have Kirby announcing it for the conference until the Ut/Ou situation has been determined. Once we know the dates they leave then they can set terms for a new BOR and have a good idea what media partners would want.

Adding the 4 gives the conference stability and a few years to get their attention. I don't see a reason to add teams now but after the current BOR is up. Who knows some of the PAC 12 schools may start getting wandering eyes if their deal falls short and we could add bigger names then the speculated Boise St/Memphis.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Dodds has had some good stuff. This tells me that I have no idea what the end game is here....

The 4 adds make sense. Additional adds look desperate to me. Unless there is some kind of plan

CW Patreon alluded to the idea that Amazon or some other new player might want a larger volume of inventory in order to make their venture worthwhile. We might be doing this now with the idea we can play at 14 for a season or two and then maintain 14 after OU/Texas depart with Boise State and Memphis coming in (or whoever).

 

[AuH2O]

Seriously? And what would be the basis for yanking P5 Status? Texas has largely been absent from Big 12 Championships. And there have been serious challenges to Oklahoma’s Championships. Iowa State won the Regular Season and narrowly lost in the Conference Championship and finished as a Top Ten Team and won their Fiesta Bowl Game versus PAC 12 Champion Oregon. Tell me how you just yank away P5 status and state the reasons for doing so.

More important than the on the field stuff is the fact that Fox and ESPN have rights to games, with ESPN having rights to the CCG. Fox and ESPN sure as hell don't want to suddenly be holding rights to games to a league that gets relegated to one that won't get an autobid to an expanded playoff.

In the end people need to realize the conferences and teams are the wholesaler and the media companies are their customer. The conferences trying to squeeze out the big 12 and reduce value of their customers other products isn't going to simply be accepted. Fox and ESPN aren't going to simply sit there and say, "OK, you want to keep the Big 12 out of the playoff, no problem. We're good with having all of this inventory that we paid for suddenly drop immensely in value."

 

[AuH2O]

I do think the B12 (or tomorrow 14?) should be open to all options though I would rather not have Kirby announcing it for the conference until the Ut/Ou situation has been determined. Once we know the dates they leave then they can set terms for a new BOR and have a good idea what media partners would want.

Adding the 4 gives the conference stability and a few years to get their attention. I don't see a reason to add teams now but after the current BOR is up. Who knows some of the PAC 12 schools may start getting wandering eyes if their deal falls short and we could add bigger names then the speculated Boise St/Memphis.

Kirby needs to STFU.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Kirby needs to STFU.

He is starting to remind me of Boren at OU - the newest Big 12 admin who can’t keep his mouth shut.

I don’t blame him too much because after losing Beard to UT and his bad football hire, getting Tech knocked down a peg and failing to land a Pac-12 invite could get him canned.

 

[WhoISthis]

Nothing is a certainty but our p5 status is written in ncaa bylaws and we have the same playoff access as the others in the current structure and the most recent proposal. Dennis Dodds piece talks about it a bit more.

Agree, it’s nearly certain the Big 12 will have an auto and be a P5. By the end, it’s more likely it’s the forebear to the 3 of a P3 setup than it is it loses access.

If the Pac 12 and to a lesser extent the ACC were of the level to encourage a P4, they wouldn’t be getting paid similar to the new Big 12. And that’s before their premium brands leave.

The Alliance isn’t a threat to P5. They need more allies, not less, in the battle against the clear top conference in the SEC. It may have been a threat to the Big 12 surviving at all, but that’s a different discussion.

The other 4 conferences would effectively need to leave the current model to get to P4. The SEC may want that, but the Alliance in essence is created to prevent that. The Alliance can’t afford to strengthen the SEC by adding another P5 to that side. You may say it doesn’t add a P5 to the SEC side, but think of it as the old Big 12 joining the SEC and the divisions putting bluebloods all on one side.

 

[jbhtexas]

Dodds has had some good stuff. This tells me that I have no idea what the end game is here....

The 4 adds make sense. Additional adds look desperate to me. Unless there is some kind of plan

Given the donor money behind a number of the big programs...it seems at some point there is going to be a split, where the big-money teams form a full pay-for-play league, and the others (which may include some bigger names that just don't want to go mini-NFL) stick with the current scholarship/NIL model. Maybe this is the start down that path...

 

[NetflixAndClone]

Personally I like staying at 12. If we added to 14 after Texass and OU leaves my vote would be Memphis and Colorado State (if they can turn it around by 2025).

West: Houston, TCU, Tech, Baylor, OKState, BYU, [CSU]
East: KU, KState, Iowa St, WVU, UCF, Cincy, [Memphis]

I think we should cap Texas schools at 4 and try to get schools closer to our footprint. Tulane has intrigued me, but I am not convinced they can take the step up yet.

 

[Jkclone15]

Been thinking about what raiding the PAC would look like, and I think taking the eastern schools actually sets up 4 amazing pods in the BIG16:
West: Utah, BYU, Arizona, ASU
North: Colorado, KU, KSU, ISU
South: BU, TCU, TxT, OSU
East: Cincy, WVU, Houston, UCF

 

[cyfan92]

We should ALL be cheering for USC and Oregon to be raided from the Pac-12 into any non-B1G league.

However, if they leave the Pac-12 and it's to the B1G... That would almost permanently close the door for ISU to the B1G

Then you can merge the Pac-12 and the Big 12 into a "super conference" with TONS of relevant inventory for linear and streaming providers

 

[WhoISthis]

I do think the B12 (or tomorrow 14?) should be open to all options though I would rather not have Kirby announcing it for the conference until the Ut/Ou situation has been determined. Once we know the dates they leave then they can set terms for a new BOR and have a good idea what media partners would want.

Adding the 4 gives the conference stability and a few years to get their attention. I don't see a reason to add teams now but after the current BOR is up. Who knows some of the PAC 12 schools may start getting wandering eyes if their deal falls short and we could add bigger names then the speculated Boise St/Memphis.

Stopping at 12 is the most obvious without having inside info.
Reasons why the Big 12 would want to have it out there that they are considering more G5s?

1.) There are more departures coming for the Big 12. Floating these now, or further, adding now, impacts the perception of these additions.
2.) They have an idea of how the Pac12 issue is going to be resolved. If there is a looming OuT moment coming for Pac 12, it adds some pressure to the leftovers there to encourage that to happen sooner than later.

I would be hesitant to add more G5s until the Pac12 and ACC pay disparity risks have been resolved, regardless of streaming wanting more inventory and particularly regardless of whatever short-term gain with the networks (see ESPN behavior with conference title game)

 

[cyIclSoneU]

We should ALL be cheering for USC and Oregon to be raided from the Pac-12 into any non-B1G league.

However, if they leave the Pac-12 and it's to the B1G... That would almost permanently close the door for ISU to the B1G

Then you can merge the Pac-12 and the Big 12 into a "super conference" with TONS of relevant inventory for linear and streaming providers

If it's just USC and Oregon leaving, then I would be surprised to see a merger. The Pac-10 at that point could just continue along.

If the B1G grabs 4-6 Pac-12 schools, now we are talking about not just a merger, but a situation where the Big 12 would have the upper hand and be in a position to grab 4-6 leftovers itself and doom the rest to the Mountain West. Why should we absorb Oregon State and Washington State when they are less valuable to us than pretty much all of our current members?

It seems if the B1G is going to make a west coast play, they take all the California schools plus Oregon and Washington and become a 20-school superconference, leaving us the chance to snag Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State to go to 16.

 

[KnappShack]

Given the donor money behind a number of the big programs...it seems at some point there is going to be a split, where the big-money teams form a full pay-for-play league, and the others (which may include some bigger names that just don't want to go mini-NFL) stick with the current scholarship/NIL model. Maybe this is the start down that path...

I see no way to stop that train. The SEC is going full pay to play in full view (not the ol' hundred dollar handshake days).

The golden goose will need to be killed so we'll have the breakaway league and the rest left with what you described.

Was hoping we'd get a league with room for the Rays and Athletics to complete with the Yankees, but I don't see that happening.

NFL Lite is here. It will be solidified. The rest will basically be like UNI is to the P5 today. Fun, but the basic things that made college football great are gone.

 

[WhoISthis]

We should ALL be cheering for USC and Oregon to be raided from the Pac-12 into any non-B1G league.

However, if they leave the Pac-12 and it's to the B1G... That would almost permanently close the door for ISU to the B1G

Then you can merge the Pac-12 and the Big 12 into a "super conference" with TONS of relevant inventory for linear and streaming providers

It is coming imo. The SEC threat is the catalyst.

The BIG creating a Pac 12 "side" arguably needs to happen to preserve the current model and some sense of geographical fit. With 6 to 8 of the top Pac 12 brands, they can have the Rose Bowl be the conference title game and pseudo part of the playoffs.


If the 4 CA schools plus Oregon and Washington, they likely add at least CU as a bridge. Maybe Utah. Ideally they add only the 6, then the Big 12 can add the Arizona schools and plus Utah and CU. That is a nice 16 conference, with room to add leftover ACC teams to augment the east (Louisville, GA Tech, Miami, maybe Pitt is my guess).


The Pac 12 is an issue. The Alliance crumbles if USC (with UCLA, ASU?) goes to the SEC. The SEC would do that just to instigate getting a fission to the pay-for-play entity they want. I don't think the Pac 12 can survive without USC and Co. Clemson and FSU would likely follow, even if just announcing they're leaving at TBD. That would result in the ACC basketball schools to jump to either the BIG or SEC.

The only way the Alliance works, if if the BIG absorbs the best of the Pac 12. That builds something nearly equal to the SEC, but more importantly keeps the SEC from being truly able to do whatever they want

 

[Halincandenza]

Only one I am not in favor of is BYU. Always a mistake to let the Mormons in the door.

 

[CascadeClone]

I DO think the PAC should be falling all over themselves to add ISU and Oklahoma St. They need to get their teams in the viewership of some passionate fanbases. It's two teams that will instantly be in the top 1/3 of the league in on-the field performance and TV viewership.

While the gross value of ISU in the Big 10 is probably significantly more than it would be in the PAC, the relative value ISU would bring to the PAC is much higher than it would be in the Big 10.

Agree, I have thought this for a while about the PAC12 and value of teams. It seems obvious ISU, OSU, TT would bring real value, so the fact they said "not now" suggests there is something planned for down the road.
Maybe the reason Big12 is adding 4 now is so 4 can go join the PAC in a few years, and that provides some succor for the left behind, as they would still be the best of the non P4 conferences. Still think ISU, OSU, KU, and probably TT make a lot of sense for the Pac16.

 

[CYdTracked]

I know some aren't pleased with the rumored 4 schools to be extended invites but I am intrigued that most if not all will eventually elevate their programs by being part of a P5 conference much like TCU and WVU were able to do. Those 2 schools already had quality athletic programs and have been competitive in the Big 12 and on a national stage with the recruiting advantage being in a P5 conference adds. All 4 of the schools we may add to the Big 12 while collectively do not bring to the table what Texas and OU did financially or historically from a name standpoint but all 4 schools have some recent success in the major sports. Cincy is a top 10 FB team right now, UCF and BYU are getting some top 25 votes and have had some good teams recently, and UCF has been to a bowl game the past 5 seasons and 12 since the 2005 season. They may not be sexy adds from a name recognition and tradition standpoint but for being non-power 5 schools they have had some success already and potentially could grow their programs more with the added boost of being a member of a P5 conference.

I'd still take a Big 10 invite in a heartbeat but expanding the Big 12 instead of letting it crumble and be uncertain where ISU would land I like the expansion option right now and I think the schools in the mix are ones that already have had some success that have the potential to grow it more and keep the Big 12 in the mix as a good P5 conference. I look back at how TCU finished in the AP top 10 in 2014, 2015, and 2017 as an example how a team joining a P5 that had already had some previous success either sustained or elevated it.

 

[Cloneon]

Agree, I have thought this for a while about the PAC12 and value of teams. It seems obvious ISU, OSU, TT would bring real value, so the fact they said "not now" suggests there is something planned for down the road.
Maybe the reason Big12 is adding 4 now is so 4 can go join the PAC in a few years, and that provides some succor for the left behind, as they would still be the best of the non P4 conferences. Still think ISU, OSU, KU, and probably TT make a lot of sense for the Pac16.

Proof is in the pudding. Let's see if a media deal is 're-worked' before its expiration.

 

[AuH2O]

I see no way to stop that train. The SEC is going full pay to play in full view (not the ol' hundred dollar handshake days).

The golden goose will need to be killed so we'll have the breakaway league and the rest left with what you described.

Was hoping we'd get a league with room for the Rays and Athletics to complete with the Yankees, but I don't see that happening.

NFL Lite is here. It will be solidified. The rest will basically be like UNI is to the P5 today. Fun, but the basic things that made college football great are gone.

The ROI for a full pay to play, NFL lite that ultimately becomes a regional league, or a nation-wide league with regional pockets of interest is going to be pretty bad. Or at least it is going to be terrible compared to now. I think even the SEC schools understand this. Earlier comments from the ACC commissioner on the Big 12 suggests the schools and conferences understand the importance of broad national interest in a sustainable business model.

 

[AuH2O]

I know some aren't pleased with the rumored 4 schools to be extended invites but I am intrigued that most if not all will eventually elevate their programs by being part of a P5 conference much like TCU and WVU were able to do. Those 2 schools already had quality athletic programs and have been competitive in the Big 12 and on a national stage with the recruiting advantage being in a P5 conference adds. All 4 of the schools we may add to the Big 12 while collectively do not bring to the table what Texas and OU did financially or historically from a name standpoint but all 4 schools have some recent success in the major sports. Cincy is a top 10 FB team right now, UCF and BYU are getting some top 25 votes and have had some good teams recently, and UCF has been to a bowl game the past 5 seasons and 12 since the 2005 season. They may not be sexy adds from a name recognition and tradition standpoint but for being non-power 5 schools they have had some success already and potentially could grow their programs more with the added boost of being a member of a P5 conference.

I'd still take a Big 10 invite in a heartbeat but expanding the Big 12 instead of letting it crumble and be uncertain where ISU would land I like the expansion option right now and I think the schools in the mix are ones that already have had some success that have the potential to grow it more and keep the Big 12 in the mix as a good P5 conference. I look back at how TCU finished in the AP top 10 in 2014, 2015, and 2017 as an example how a team joining a P5 that had already had some previous success either sustained or elevated it.

There really is limited downside for all the old and new big 12 members. Gives a reasonable conference in the meantime while the old teams try to get into other conferences. Even if that happens the new members and old leftovers can invite the likes of Memphis, BSU, and others and it will still be a better more valuable league than the current AAC.